Weekly Commentary: Time For Optimism - Smart Israeli Planning For

Weekly Commentary: Time For Optimism – Smart Israeli Planning For =
Philadelphi Corridor Operation Can Satisfy Egypt’s Primary Concerns=20
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 February 2024

Suddenly there is room for optimism:

#1. Hamas’ demands are so outrageous that even Israel Channel 12 uses =
that adjective in its headlines. Israel’s survival will take precedence =
over the hostages.

#2. The Saudi “consolation prize” which America has been offering in =
exchange for our forfeiting our future is a dead letter with the Saudi =
Foreign Ministry announcing that diplomatic relations would require =
withdrawal to the 1967 “Auschwitz borders” and the division of =
Jerusalem.=20

#3. Some smart Israelis can come up with solutions which address Egypt’s =
concerns regarding an Israeli operation that clears out the Hamas =
terrorists from Rafah and destroys the smuggling tunnels crossing the =
Philadelphi Corridor.

I am sharing below a Google translation of the Arabic language article =
in today’s Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed which details Egypt’s concerns.

Egypt doesn’t want an Israeli operation to cause or facilitate an =
invasion of Gazans into Egyptian Sinai.

Egypt also wants to be able to show the world that the Israeli operation =
is not forcing the closure of the Egyptian Rafah crossing.

Finally, Egypt does not want there to be a PERMANENT Israeli military =
presence in the Philadelphi Corridor. I emphasize the word “permanent” =
because so many “temporary” things in our region continue for decades. =
Also, technically, an Israeli border police force at a later stage would =
not constitute a “military presence” within the framework of the treaty =
between Egypt and Israel. =20

Please note: Egypt does not state that it has a problem with us killing =
Hamas members or blocking the smuggling tunnels (which they have claimed =
elsewhere do not exist).

Egypt doesn’t say “don’t propose any plans to invade Rafah or carry out =
operations in the Philadelphi Corridor.” =20

What Egypt does say is that they do not feel that the plans which Israel =
has shared with them so far satisfactorily meet their needs.

So the ball is in our court.

And I am optimistic.

I am optimistic because if DM Gallant gives the instructions to COS =
Halevi to design these operations to achieve our objectives while =
meeting Egypt’s needs there are more than enough smart people serving =
under him to figure this out.

=3D=3D=3D
The following is a Google translation:

Egypt demands guarantees from the occupation regarding a military =
operation in Rafah
Cairo Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed 07 February 2024

At a time when Egypt is participating as a mediator in the issue of the =
Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip, it is engaged in another path =
that is no less complex than the prisoner exchange negotiations and a =
ceasefire in the Strip, which is linked to direct negotiations with Tel =
Aviv regarding Israeli intentions to launch a military operation in the =
Palestinian Rafah.

Egypt fears a massive wave of displacement of the people of the Gaza =
Strip towards Sinai, where there are more than 1.2 million Palestinians =
in Rafah. The two parties are also negotiating movements in the =
Philadelphia axis area adjacent to the Egyptian border, and the effects =
of Israeli military actions there on Egypt.

In this context, an Egyptian source familiar with the Cairo discussions =
with the Israeli side regarding the border region revealed some of the =
details of the meetings that took place between security delegations =
from both sides during the past few days.

An Israeli vision regarding a military operation in Rafah

He explained that “During his recent visit to the Egyptian capital, =
Ronen Bar, the head of the Israeli Internal Security Service, presented =
to Egyptian officials an Israeli vision that included two axes, one of =
which was linked to the border region and joint cooperation regarding =
it, whether currently or in the future, and the other included an =
Israeli vision regarding a military operation that he described as =
intensive in the Palestinian Rafah. ” Which Tel Aviv considers the last =
center of power of the Hamas movement.”

Egyptian source: Cairo cannot, under any circumstances, accept the =
closure of the Rafah crossing for many considerations

The Egyptian source told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, =E2=80=9CThe axis linked to =
the border region, whether currently or in the future, is considered the =
closest in terms of reaching understandings between the two sides, =
unlike the other axis, which came in the meeting that brought together =
Ronen Bar with the head of the General Intelligence Service. Al-Masry, =
Major General Abbas Kamel, regarding launching a military operation in =
the Palestinian Rafah.=E2=80=9D

Increasing the number of joint committees in the Philadelphia axis

According to the source, =E2=80=9CAmong the ideas proposed regarding =
ensuring the security of the border region and the Philadelphia axis is =
increasing the number of joint security committees between the two =
sides.=E2=80=9D

It is noteworthy that, according to the peace agreement signed between =
Egypt and Israel in 1979, a joint military and security committee was =
formed between the two sides, which meets periodically to coordinate =
regarding common issues related to the borders.

Egypt denies the existence of a plan to replace the Rafah crossing with =
the Israeli Kerem Shalom crossing

The currently proposed vision, which enjoys Cairo’s support, includes =
the formation of more specialized committees in files related to border =
security, on the condition that there is no permanent Israeli military =
presence in that area, known as Area D in the security annexes of the =
Camp David Accords.

While it was raised through Israeli reports regarding a proposal related =
to closing the Rafah border crossing and transferring its route to the =
Kerem Shalom crossing, the source said, =E2=80=9CThe conversation in =
this matter is almost over, because Egypt cannot, under any =
circumstances, accept the closure of the Rafah crossing for many =
considerations, which is what “The Israeli side was informed about it at =
various levels.” He revealed, at the same time, that =E2=80=9CCairo also =
informed officials in the US administration that maintaining the =
crossing in the roles it performs is a necessity to preserve balances, =
and security in that region is also very special.=E2=80=9D

Possibility of launching a military operation in Rafah

Regarding the Israeli desire to launch a military operation in the =
Palestinian Rafah, the source reduced the chances of carrying out that =
operation. He said: “At least according to the vision presented by the =
Israeli side, the matter will be very difficult and unacceptable, =
whether from Cairo or from the American administration, which no longer =
accepts large-scale military actions in densely populated areas.”

The source revealed that Cairo “asked the Israeli side, during the last =
meeting, for sufficient guarantees so that this operation would not lead =
to the displacement of thousands of Palestinians towards Sinai under the =
weight of bombing and military operations.”

The source pointed out that =E2=80=9CRonen Bar and his accompanying =
delegation did not provide final responses regarding what Cairo =
requested,=E2=80=9D stressing that =E2=80=9CEgyptian demands must be =
presented to the War Council to decide on them.=E2=80=9D He revealed =
that “an Israeli delegation is scheduled to arrive next week in Cairo, =
to present the final position of the Israeli government regarding the =
demands set by Egypt.”

The source said, “Egyptian estimates regarding the military operation =
that Israel intends to carry out in Rafah tend to be difficult and =
perhaps impossible to implement, given the many obstacles, whether =
military or international.”

He explained, “There is an Egyptian view of the Israeli movements and =
statements in this regard, that they come within the framework of =
escalation to obtain gains in other files, perhaps including pressure on =
Hamas and the resistance during the negotiation process regarding the =
prisoner exchange deal.”

Ammar Fayed: Egypt is only concerned with the issue of ensuring that the =
scenario of displacement to Sinai is avoided

He said: “Maybe raising the ceiling of demands is aimed at directing the =
resistance’s decision regarding the prisoner deal.” He added: =
“Practically, the nature of Rafah cannot carry out a lightning military =
operation, in light of the presence of an entire brigade from the Hamas =
movement alone, consisting of four battalions. This is in contrast to =
the presence of elements of other factions, led by (Islamic) Jihad.”

The source explained, “On the other hand, in light of the indications =
that lead to the nearness of reaching an agreement on a relatively long =
ceasefire in exchange for the exchange of prisoners, it will be =
difficult to implement the process that Israeli leaders intend to =
undertake.”

The source pointed to =E2=80=9Canother obstacle, which is the difficulty =
of emptying the Rafah area of =E2=80=8B=E2=80=8Bdisplaced people soon, =
according to the scenarios proposed by the Israeli government to reduce =
the number of displaced people there in response to Egyptian =
concerns,=E2=80=9D saying that =E2=80=9Cthe issue of opening paths to =
evacuate hundreds of thousands and return them to areas where there are =
still “Military operations are almost impossible.”

He added: “For example, among the proposals was the return of =
significant numbers to the northern regions, before reports of a gradual =
return to the administrative control of the resistance and the Hamas =
movement over those areas and the appearance of police and local =
employees there, which necessitated the resumption of Israeli aircraft =
bombing and the renewal of its operations there.” “.

The source continued that Israel “promotes that Rafah is the last =
stronghold of Hamas leaders, in light of the extensive military =
operations underway in Khan Yunis. On the other hand, the bulk of the =
tunnel networks in Gaza have not yet been discovered – according to =
American intelligence reports – and that the large parts are =
undiscovered.” The discoveries in the Hamas tunnel network are located =
in areas where Israel says it has ended operations, and where Hamas =
leaders may be present, which makes the Israeli push for an operation =
towards Rafah undesirable.=E2=80=9D=20

Commenting on this, the Palestinian military expert and analyst, retired =
Major General Wassef Erekat, told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that =E2=80=9Cwith =
the presence of a million and a half million residents and displaced =
people in Rafah, any military operation means declaring a new war on the =
Palestinian people.=E2=80=9D
He added: “This confirms the enemy’s intentions to commit wars of =
genocide and ethnic cleansing and displace the Palestinians by military =
force, under aerial bombardment, ground artillery, and snipers from =
Israeli soldiers outside the borders. It confirms that pushing them from =
the beginning to flee to Rafah was for this goal.”

For his part, Ammar Fayed, a researcher in political science and =
international relations, said in an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, =
=E2=80=9CIt is clear that Egypt is only concerned with the issue of =
ensuring that the scenario of displacement to Sinai is avoided, and =
therefore it does not view any operation in Rafah except in terms of the =
extent of its impact.=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9COn the increasing possibilities =
of that scenario, and not from the standpoint of the human suffering =
that will result from it.=E2=80=9D

Fayed added that Egypt had already provided great guarantees previously, =
destroyed and flooded the tunnel network, and evacuated the border area =
of =E2=80=8B=E2=80=8Bits residents, and now Egypt will not object to any =
new arrangements as long as they do not detract from its sovereignty =
over its lands, as he put it. He continued: “In general, I do not think =
that the dispute over the nature of these arrangements will remain, and =
most likely the two sides will reach an agreement.”

________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus =
on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il