Oooh look, unemployment is down to 8.2%, if you live in a parallel universe
I stopped posting my Weekly Obama Jobs Reports because they got too repetitious.
Week after week Obama did nothing to create jobs, and our economy is hardly what
any sane person would label “robust.” I ran out of mockery.
So imagine my chagrin when I saw that the White House is practically giddy
with delight today because
the March unemployment rate has dropped to 8.2%.
Chagrin? Why you partisan hack Wysocki! How dare you deny President Golf Pants
his due!
Eh, it’s quite easy, actually. The country only added 120,000 new jobs in
March, hardly enough to produce anything close to a meaningful “recovery.”
The 8.2% unemployment figure is a fiction. A farce. Totally contrived.
Obama’s minions can do that you know. Fudge the numbers. It’s one of the few
things they’re actually good at. And before the rise of New Media they’d get
away with doing it too.
Here’s a dose of Reality. The official unemployment rate is so low because
Obama only counts people who are actively looking for work. In other words,
optimists. Or fools. (Optimists vote Republican, fools vote Democrat.)
He conveniently leaves out
the discouraged, the early retirees, and the part-timers.
1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was
the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.8%
today down from last month—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%.
2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which
means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed,
it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the
Congressional Budget Office predicted
what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using
that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.5%.
3. Of course, the LFP rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you
discount for that and the aging issue, the real unemployment rate would be 9.4%.
4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the
discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment
rate, perhaps the truest measure of the labor market’s health, is still a
sky-high 14.5%.
5. The employment-population ratio dipped to 58.5% vs. 61% in December 2008.
An historically low level of the U.S. population is actually working.
The real, unadulterated unemployment rate is at least 9.4%, and could be as
high as 14.5%. And hardly anybody actually has a job.
Is that the Hope? Or the Change?
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