Obama Behind In All Polling When Sample Is Balanced

Polling for the 2012 election is skewed favoring Obama as the sampling is decidedly a larger percentage of Democrats over Republicans and Independents. The baseline for 2012 polling is the 2008 election which had a 39% Democrat participation, 31% Republican and 25% Independent. This sampling baseline even with Romney showing at least a 15 point lead with Independents in all polls has Romney either behind, even or only one or two points ahead. Moving the baseline to a balanced approach based more on the 2010 election which had Republicans, Independents and Democrats nearly balanced at the polls on election day a much better baseline as 2012 mirrors 2010 much more than 2008 because of the higher involvement of Republicans and Independents than in 2008, a sampling of equal numbers of Republican, Independents and Democrats the picture changes dramatically as shown below.

NBC News/WSJ 9/12 – 9/16 - 736 Likely Voters – Obama 44.0 – Romney 51.0 –  Romney +7 

Monmouth Univ. 9/13 – 9/16 -  1344 Likely Voters   Obama 45.0 – Romney  50.0 –  Romney +5

 Q Star News  9/13 – 9/16  - 2075 Registered Voters  Obama 44.0 – Romney –  55.0 Romney +11

 NY Times/CBS News 9/8 – 9/12  – 1162 Likely Voters  Obama  44.0 – Romney  51.0 –  Romney +7

Democracy Corps 9/8 – 9/12 -  1000 Likely Voters   Obama 43.0 – Romney  52.0 –  Romney +8

Fox News 9/9 – 9/11 -  1056 Likely Voters  Obama 45.0 – Romney 48.0 –  Romney +3

Reuters/Ipsos 9/7 – 9/10 - 873 Likely Voters  Obama 42.0 – Romney  51.0 –  Romney +9

Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 – 9/9 - 826 Likely Voters  Obama 45.0 – Romney  52.0 –  Romney +7

CNN/ORC 9/7 – 9/9 - 875 Registered Voters   Obama 45.0 – Romney  53.0 –  Romney +8

IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/4 – 9/9 -  808 Registered Voters   Obama  41.0 – Romney 50.0 –  Romney +9 

ARG 9/4 – 9/6 -  1200 Likely Voters   Obama 43.0 – Romney 53.0 –  Romney +10

Average of all polls – Obama 43.0 – Romney 51.0 - Romney + 8

For those who have been discouraged by the polling take heart when polls are balanced and Romney is actually leading. Of course as always the only poll that counts is the one that takes place on election day. But the bottom line is don’t fall for the media skewing of this election and know that the American people know failure when they see it and vote with their pocket book.  Obama IS a failure and everyone is hurting in the pocket book which places Obama as a one term failed President.

Ken Taylor