Obama 208, Romney 330 - Electoral Landslide

Two political science professors, Kenneth Bickers of Colorado University-Boulder and Michael Berry of Colorado University Denver released their prediction of the 2012 Presidential election on August 22.  The model they base this prediction on includes a complete economic picture from per ca pita income to unemployment both on a national and state level.  This model has accurately predicted every Presidential election since 1980 including the popular vote victory of Al Gore and the electoral victory of George W. Bush in 2000.  The model does not just predict the popular vote like many but also a detail of the electoral college.

The original prediction in August had Mitt Romney taking the Electoral College in a landslide with 325 electoral votes to Obama’s 213.  The model also had Romney taking most of the swing states including Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado with 52% of the traditionally blue state. Every Presidential election year Professors Bickers and Berry release an update one month before the election and 2012 is no different.

The October update provides even better news for Romney.  The revised model  has Romney taking 330 electoral votes to Obama’s 208 a difference of 5 electoral votes since the original August prediction. The new model factored in new economic figures which included the GDP being revised downward to 1.2% or a virtual stagnate economy and more leaving the workforce because of the dismal jobs situation created by the Obama economy.

Additionally the model has Romney picking up another state in the new model. New Mexico which was in the Obama column in August now shifts to the Romney column.  The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

The August prediction had Romney with 52.9% of the popular vote which increases to 53.3% in the October revision to Obama’s 46.7%.  This is a wide margin for the popular vote adding to the predicted 330 electoral landslide.  Once again this coming from a prediction model that has been 100% accurate since 1980 even the years that factored in third party runs in 1980, 1988 and 1992 which makes prediction models extremely difficult because determining who will vote for a third party candidate adds so many variables.  Yet this model has been on the mark without exception.

Of course just like the polls one never counts the chickens before they hatch but it is also hard to argue with 100% over a 32 year time span.  The fight for defeating Obama must continue until the last vote is counted on election day and this absolute failure and danger to our Nation is given his walking papers by the American people who then can rejoice knowing we will watch him leave Washington for the last time in January 2013.

Ken Taylor