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Fear Not! Six Reasons Why Romney Will Win Ohio

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True. The polls are showing a narrow Obama edge in Ohio of about two points. Fear not. Here are six reasons why I’m 100 percent certain Romney will win Ohio by a comfortable margin . . .

1) Ohio is a Republican-leaning State

Republicans have controlled the governorship for 20 of the last 24 years. The GOP overwhelmingly controls both houses of the Ohio state legislature. Republicans hold all five of the statewide elected offices, including the governorship. All Ohio Supreme Court Justices are Republican.

2) Cuyahoga county — which includes Cleveland — has lost 150,000 registered voters since 2008.

This is Obama’s big county.  It’s where his votes are. So this is bad news for Obama.

3) Ohio traditionally votes about 2 points more Republican than the rest of the country.

Obama defeated McCain nationally by 7 points, but won Ohio by 4.7 percent.  The Real Clear Politics average of national polls shows Romney and Obama tied — though Gallup gives Romney a 5 point lead nationally.  So if Ohio is a point or two more Republican than the country as a whole, that gives the edge to Romney on this metric alone.

4) Romney is running anywhere from 7 percent to 18 percent ahead of Obama among Independent voters (depending on the poll).

I’m assuming Republicans and Democrats turnout in equal numbers. That gives the win to Romney because of the Independent vote.  But even if you give Democrats a 3 point turnout advantage over Republicans (highly unlikely), that still gives the win to Romney.

5) Obama only beat McCain in 2008 in Ohio by 4.7 points.

Obama is now running nationally 7-8 points behind his 2008 vote total according to the RCP average of polls. This fact will be mirrored in Ohio.

Do you really think Romney won’t perform 5 percent  better than McCain?

Do you really think Obama won’t perform at least 5 percent worse than in 2008 after four years of dismal economic performance?

Remember, McCain was a stunningly weak candidate, while Obama was heralded as the Messiah.

We had just had the financial meltdown under George W. Bush, who was the most unpopular President since Jimmy Carter.  But now Obama has a four-year record — and a sorry record it is.  An overwhelming majority of Americans believe America is headed in the wrong direction. Republican enthusiasm for this election is at a fever pitch, while Democrat enthusiasm is down. There’s just no way Romney won’t outperform McCain by more than 5 points in Ohio.

6) Early voting and absentee ballot requests have already erased Obama’s 2008 262,224 vote margin of victory over McCain.

Karl Rove has been closely tracking early voters and absentee ballot requests. Here’s what Rove said in his Wall Street Journal column the other day:

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.
That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio.”

Rove was on FOX News last night with updated early-voting numbers that show Obama has now lost his entire 262,224 early voting and absentee ballot 2008 margin of victory. So Democrats continue to under-perform, while the GOP is over-performing with early voting and absentee ballots.

Remember, John McCain defeated Barack Obama in Ohio (and across the nation) with votes cast on Election Day. Obama’s entire margin of victory was achieved with early voting. The GOP has just about eliminated Obama’s early voting advantage and will now swamp Obama with Election Day votes. Republicans traditionally vote on Election Day.

So it’s game over for Obama on this early-voting and absentee ballot data alone.

The Bottom Line . . .

I do think Ohio will be fairly close. It always is.  That’s why it’s a bellwether state.

It won’t be a blowout for Romney, who has been hurt by the auto bailout issue in this state among some blue collar workers. That’s what’s keeping Obama reasonably close in Ohio. Though Obama is being hurt with blue collar workers in south eastern Ohio with his war on the coal industry. So this will dampen any advantage Obama is getting from the auto bailout. Romney will win Ohio by about 140,000 votes (2-3 percent).

No recount will be needed.

I also believe Romney will win Wisconsin, Iowa, and might even pull off a surprise victory in Pennsylvania.

Virginia, Florida and Colorado are now all in the bag for Romney.

About that NBC/WSJ/Marist poll that has Obama now leading in Ohio by 6.

Who knows whether this ridiculous poll is pure political propaganda, or just incompetence.

Does anyone really believe Obama will win Ohio this year by more than he won it by in 2008?

This so-called poll included a +9 Democrat advantage over Republicans in its sample.

So that’s all you have to know about this poll.

In 2008, the Democrat turnout margin over Republicans in Ohio was +7.

In 2010, Republicans were +1 over Dems in turnout.

Expect turnout in Ohio this year to be about equal between Democrats and Republicans. Romney will win with the 7 to 18 point advantage he now has with Independents (depending on the poll). If Romney’s advantage with Independents is just 6 points on Election Day, he’ll win Ohio handily.


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