Severe Doctor Shortage Looms Under Obamacare

Millions more Americans are expected to seek medical treatment under Obamacare, but many are likely to have difficulty finding easy access to a doctor.
As it stands now, 20 percent of Americans live in areas with an insufficient number of primary care physicians, and 30 percent live in areas that are short of mental health providers.

In two states, Louisiana and Mississippi, more than half the population lives in an area with too few healthcare providers to serve people’s medical needs, according to Stateline, a publication of the Pew Charitable Trusts.

The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) predicts that there could be a shortage of 45,000 primary care doctors in the United States by 2020, and a shortfall of 46,000 specialists.

To make matters worse, many primary care doctors do not accept Medicaid patients due to low reimbursement rates, and many of those who are newly insured under Obamacare will be covered through Medicaid.

Christine Mitchell, director of federal affairs for AAMC, said many of the estimated 36 million people expected to gain coverage under Obamacare will endure long waits to see a doctor in their community or need to travel far from home for medical care elsewhere.

Stateline cited several factors contributing to the looming doctor shortage. Due to the aging of the boomer generation, the number of Americans over 65 will grow by about 36 percent in the next 10 years. But the federal government estimates that the number of doctors will rise by just 7 percent.

Many doctors in the boomer generation will retire. And fewer medical students are opting for primary care in favor of specialties.

“A steady stream of negative attention has made medicine in general a far less attractive career choice than it once was,” Stateline noted. “Insurance headaches, pricey technologies, long hours and the risk of liability have convinced many talented students to eschew medicine as a career choice.”

A shortage of dentists is likely in the coming years as well. Obamacare has made pediatric dental care coverage a requirement for all insurance, which will be provided to as many as 8.7 million children by 2018, far outstripping America’s capacity for producing new dentists.

Allowing mid-level medical providers, including physician assistants, nurse practitioners, and dental aides, to perform some of the work usually reserved for doctors and dentists could improve healthcare access in the long run.

But Linda Rosenberg, president of the National Council for Behavioral Health, said, “In the meantime, people are going to suffer.”