Pakistan: Fighting the Floods

Having studied the main reasons which cause floods lets analyze the countermeasures. There is definitely a requirement to take action in number of fields.

Water Diverion Projects:   The excessive flood waters can be diverted conveniently to areas where it will not cause devastation and can even be helpful in re-invigorating the local hydrographic environment. The flood water escapes mentioned below will be controlled by regulators/spillways and take the water in a controlled manner to the desired areas. 

Ravi:   Although it starts touching Pakistan border at Abial Dogran in Shakargarh then runs alongside international border and enters fully into Pakistan at Ravi Syphon upstream of Lahore.

River Chenab:   The devastation carried out by this river has been maximum. It can be tamed to a large extent by either diverting some of its flood water through the link canals as mentioned above or construction of escapes to let the water flow into the un-inhabited areas of Thal desert.

1. Trimmu Escape:   An escape to carry 50,000 cusecs of water from upstream of Trimmu Barrage to general area of thal can dissipate the strength of water to a large extent.
2. Muhammad Wala Bridge Escape:   Another escape upstream of T-P link full into River Chenab again of approx. 50,000/-cusecs to let the water flow into Khudai Ranges will off set the flood danger to Multan and Muzaffargarh.
3. These escapes were already utilized in a functional manner by blowing up the dykes and allowing the water to go to lesser inhabited areas to save more heavily populated areas in the recent 2014 floods.  

Fig 2:  A google view of plains of Punjab with Thal Desert in Centre where a huge amount of flood waters of Indus, Jhelum & Chenab Rivers can be diverted:

River Sutlej:  There areas number of places where River Sutlej flood waters had been diverted towards cholistan desert in the past. However there is no proper mechanism for this purpose:

1. Sulaimanki Escape: Running from Sulaimanki parallel to the borders can recharge the old Ghagra/Hakra River bed.

2. Head Islam Escape:   Water can be diverted to Tamewali area from Head Islam which is otherwise under-utilized due to provision of water to Bhawal canal from S&M Link Canal.

3. Mailsi Syphon Escape:  This provides the shortest route to divert flood waters into Tamewali desert area.

4. Escapes can also be constructed to let off the flood waters into cholistan at Israni and a few more places.

River Jhelum:   This rivers flood waters are already very well regulated by the Mangla Dam and existence of Dal and Wullar lakes in its upper reaches. The construction of Kishen Ganga and Neelum-Jhelum hydro-electric works followed by Kohala Dam will make this river even more managable. It is only the man made decisions which can worsen and cause devastation as mentioned Brig Simon Saraf’s paper regarding the filling of Mangla Dam in a very short period leaving no cushion for flood waters to be retained for a few days.

This river runs parallel to the Thal Desert from Khushab to its confluence with Chenab at Trimmu. A number of escapes can be made into the Thal Desert upto Trimmu to take the flood waters . 

River Indus:   Like Jhelum it is also well regulated by the Tarbela Dam, chashma barrage with capacity to hold. Again possibility of construction of 2 to 3 escapes from Chashma to Taunsa on its eastern bank to divert the flood waters into Thal desert should be examined. Early construction of Bhasha Dam and Dasu Dam will further increase the potential to regulate the river.

Miscellaneous Recommendations:

1. Coordination Streamlinning:  There is a need of achieving much better interaction with upper riparian states both Indian Punjab and IHK to get timely warnings. Water release particularly in Jhelum, Chenab and Ravi should be regulated by a joint mechanism by both countries as part of Indus Basin Treaty.
2. Reforestation:   Massive afforestation projects should be launched with the help of army, volunteers, boy scouts, and college students throughout the country particularly in the upper reaches of these rivers, sub-montane and montane regions. .  The river bed or katcha areas to be properly defined and only forests to be allowed to grow there, these areas should be declared as reserve forest.
3. Protection of River Bed:   No population or industry should be permitted in katcha area/river bed. Sutlej and Ravi rivers have been literally reduced to the level of sewage water drains due to this population pressure.
4. Moratorium on buildings more embankments/dykes. Let the flood waters spread out.

Conclusion:   Numerous studies and comprehensive flood commission reports have been prepared over the last 60 years. The last one being Justice Mansoor Ali Khan’s Flood Commission Report on 2010 floods. It is time that we take cognizance of the floods menace and take timely actions. A five years plan to sort out all floodwater issues along with necessary capital works should be undertaken at the earliest. Following sum up the National Flood Control Stretegy.

Annexs:

Fig 3:  Comparison Sep 2014 Actual vs Anticipated Flood Discharge

Fig 4:  Peak Discharge Pakistan Rivers 1947 to 2010

All data/diagrammes are courtesy IRSA?

Fig 3:  Comparative Flood Discharge

 Fig 4:  PEAK HISTORIC DISCHARGE PAKISTAN RIVERS

	River	Site	1			2			3
			Cusecs	Date	Flood level	Cusecs	Date	Flood level	Cusecs	Date	Flood level
	Indus	Tarbela	832000	30.7.2010	EH	510000	31.7.89	High	500000	10.9.92	High
		Attock	979500	30.7.2010	VH	670000	1958	VH	653000	1966	VH
		Kalabagh	937453	30.7.2010	EH	862000	2.8.76	EH	849245	10.9.92	EH
		Chashma	1038873	1.8.2010	EH	786600	8.76	VH	689100	29.8.83	VH
		Taunsa	959991	2.8.2010	VH	789000	1958	VH	675233	7.8.76	VH
		Guddu	1199672	15.8.76	EH	1172292	13.8.86	EH	1162653	31.7.88	EH
		Sukkur	1166574	15.8.86	EH	1161000	1976	EH	1130220	9.8.2010	EH
		Kotri	980329	14.8.56	EH	964897	27.8.2010	EH	826369	25.8.94	EH
	Jhelum	Mangla	1090000	10.9.92	EH	1045000	4.7.59	EH	730000	6.8.58	EH
		Rasul	952170	10.9.92	EH	876000	5.7.59	EH	860000	11.7.60	EH
	Chenab	Marala	1100000	26.8.57	EH	870795	5.7.59	EH	845090	10.9.92	EH
		Khanki	1086410	27.8.59	EH	1021018	5.7.59	EH	1000496	10.8.73	EH
		Qadirabad	948530	11.9.92	EH	878719	26.9.88	EH	873442	28.8.97	EH
		Trimmu