The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows AZ as a toss up with Trump leading the avg. by 1%. But that was before the last poll from Data Orbital was released.
The poll released this morning, show Hillary Clinton with a 1% lead in the state. But the numbers have to be more worrisome than that since Hispanics which represent almost 33% of the state’s electorate, are undersampled, accounting for only 20% of the poll respondents.
Also, given that Clinton’s campaign looks much more organized on the ground and with the aid of third-party groups like “Mi Familia Vota, which registered close to 150k new democrat voters in the past three weeks, Arizona is starting to look like a very tricky proposition for the Trump campaign.
Going back to the average, which has not yet calculated this last poll…It takes into account the last 4 polls of the state. Once this poll gets calculated into it, they will drop the oldest poll which shows Trump up by 4%, swinging the RCP average from +1% for Trump to a tie.
The poll also includes new numbers on prop 205 which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state. That race is currently a toss-up as well.
— BrahmResnik (@brahmresnik) October 14, 2016