On election night 1948, most Americans went to bed thinking Governor Dewey would be in the White House in a few months. Why not? The experts had told them!
Instead, they heard over breakfast that President Truman was returning.
What will happen on election day 2016? Let’s look at these polls that confuse the heck out of me:
1) The RCP average shows Mrs. Clinton up by 6 in the latest 10 head-to-head matches. However, two of the last three show a tie.
2) The four-way race, a more realistic assessment in my view, has Mrs Clinton up by 5. Again, two of the last three polls have Mr. Trump up by 2. I say the four-way race is more realistic because Mr. Johnson and Dr. Stein will take about 10% of the voters. It could be more if Sanders’s supporters get even with Mrs. Clinton for the way they were treated in the primaries.
My point is that these polls are crazy, and it’s not because pollsters are in the tank for Mrs. Clinton. I just don’t think that you can take an accurate poll in a country that does not answer landlines unless they recognize the name of the caller.
And did I tell you that a professor is predicting a Trump victory? Professor Allan Lichtman, who has apparently predicted every election since 1984, is saying Trump will win.
So put me down as one of those who will wait for voters to decide this election. I will vote for Mr. Trump because this is about nominating someone to the Supreme Court, and Mrs. Clinton cannot be allowed to do that.
On another level, this is also about making a statement about partial-birth abortion. Sorry, but a society that plays word games over the unborn is sick and doomed to rot away.
So who will win? I don’t know, but keep an eye on the Cleveland Indians in the World Series. They won in 1948, the year President Truman pulled a great upset.