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Election Predictions: State by State Analysis

Thursday, November 3, 2016 16:02
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(Before It's News)

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By Douglas V. Gibbs
AuthorSpeakerInstructorRadio Host

Rather than spend time defending himself against the attacks being launched by the Hillary Clinton campaign, today in Pennsylvania Trump hammered the issues, especially health care.  As the crimes of Clinton are being revealed, Trump is on the rise.  Is it enough?  Is it in time?

Even the Washington Post is admitting, even after manipulating the polls like the rest of the mainstream media, that Trump has a path to the White House.

They even use the word “movement” when describing his campaign – a word The Donald has been using all along.  From the beginning Donald Trump has been saying his candidacy is more than just an election campaign.  It is a movement.  It is referendum against the establishment, and a real move towards change from business as usual.  It brings together more than conservatives who are angry with the Republican Establishment.  Bernie supporters and Democrat sick of business as usual are also moving over to the Donald Trump side.
The Washington Post, like the rest of the media, still doesn't think Trump has a chance.  They are still blowing the same old Democrat Party trumpets.  They have been in the tank for Hillary in the same way they were for Barack Obama, with the same lies, the same smoke and mirrors, and the same falsified poll information.  We know they have been tweaking the numbers, yet, they are admitting the presidential election is closer than they'd like.  The Hillary Camp is working harder in Swing States, and the propaganda machine is in full swing.  So, if they people who are tweaking the numbers say it is close, what does that say about the true numbers that we are not being told about?  And, what does that say about how many Democrats are going to be voting for Trump?  Has the Reagan-Democrats phenomenon become the Trump-Democrats phenomenon of the new century?
The Washington Post says that Florida has gone from “lean Democratic to “toss-up.”  And Florida, historically, is a key State in winning the election.  They have Ohio as a toss-up as well, which is another key State in the election.  The Washington Post has Pennsylvania as only “leaning” towards Hillary, rather than solid Democrat.  And, as Trump speaks in Pennsylvania today, one wonders if perhaps the State leans further red than the media is willing to admit.
While there are some States where there is no question in which direction they will go, there are some surprises possible out there.  I believe, for example, that Oregon and Washington could possibly go to Donald Trump.  Not only is Trump on the rise, and appealing to voters that the Republicans have failed to reach in past elections, but in reality Mr. Trump may be not only ahead of Hillary Clinton in this race, but may be the front runner by a significant margin.

Below is the map as we see it here at Political Pistachio at this moment.  Continue to scroll down pass the map and I provide an explanation for why the States shows the color it does for each and every State.  Red is solid Trump, Blue is solid Hillary.  Light Red is leaning Trump, Light Blue is leaning Hillary.  Gray, in our opinion, are States that could go either way.

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States:

Alabama: Solid Red, there is no doubt even by many of the polls in mainstream media that Alabama will go to Trump.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans.  The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.8%.  Writer Cameron Smith after the 2014 Mid-Term Election called Alabama the “reddest of the red States.” He wrote, “Alabama is not simply Republican; it is undeniably conservative. Perhaps what “conservative” reflects most consistently in Alabama voters is a desire for government to return to its role as a relatively minor focal point in their lives.”
Alaska:  We have the State as Solid Red, while the mainstream media believes Alaska simply “leans” Republican.  Real Clear Politics has the State “likely” Red.  Fox News has the State “leaning” Red. NBC News has the State “leaning” Red. The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections. A poll released by Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski this month showed her party's presidential nominee at 37 percent, only three points up on Hillary Clinton, and an Alaska Dispatch News survey at the end of September showed Trump at 36 percent, a little less than 6 points ahead of Clinton. In the last presidential election in 2012, Mitt Romney got just under 55 percent of Alaskans' votes.  Both of Alaska's Republican U.S. senators, Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, have withdrawn their support from Trump. And Republicans around the state report few signs of a Trump groundswell.  The Daily Caller, a conservative website, has Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie. The campaign coordinator for Trump Alaska 2016, Jerry Ward, who is also a former State Senator, said, “Alaska absolutely is going to vote for Trump-Pence.  We’re a Republican state and our presidential candidate has said that he is going to develop our resources.” Since becoming a state in 1959, Alaska voters have backed a Democrat candidate for president only once, in 1964. In 2016, when I checked the webstite toady, Trump has a 70.9% chance of winning the state’s three electoral votes, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll forecast.
Arizona:  Despite a lot of conversation about the fate of Arizona in 2016 and the claim that Trump could lose the traditionally Republican State, we have the State as Solid Red.  Real Clear Politics has the State a toss-up.  Fox News has the State as a toss-up. NBC News has the State as a toss-up. The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four electionsFiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 62%.  A part of the reason, according to Arizona Central, that Trump may be in trouble in Arizona is because of his “immigration rhetoric,” which may not sit will with Arizona's large Hispanic population.  The site also says that Trump has alienated the Mormons in the State because of his “playboy lifestyle.”  Arizona Central also points out that Trump has not had a very good ground game in Arizona.  The Washington Post has also jumped on the “Arizona may go blue” bandwagon, indicating it would be the first time in 20 years Arizona went to a Democrat if Hillary Clinton could pull off a victory in the traditionally GOP State.  The latest Real Clear Politics poll specifically regarding Arizona has Trump returning to the lead he's held most of the campaign season, with the Republican Candidate up by two points.  While the mainstream media paints the entire Hispanic vote as being for the Democrats, and their main excuse for calling Arizona a toss-up is because they claim his immigration rhetoric has turned off Hispanic voters, the reality is that a significant portion of the Hispanic population is very conservative on the issue.  If anything, his immigration rhetoric is encouraging more Hispanics who may not have been voting in the past, but are conservative on this issue, to come to the polls to pull the lever for Trump.
Arkansas:  Solid Red.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.2%.  The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  Trump has been leading Hillary in Arkansas by double digits, and his lead is widening.  
California:  Solid Blue.  While there is some talk that it is remotely possible that Trump could pull off California in an election that The Politik claims he will win by a landslide, and we know the polls have been manipulated, at the current moment California is among the bluest of the blue States.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Blue.  Fox News has the State as a solid Blue. NBC News has the State as a solid Blue. The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats, and in fact is only two seats away in the Assembly, and one seat in the State Senate, from giving the Democrats a super-majority. The Democrats have carried the State in the last four presidential elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary Clinton's chance of winning the State at 99.9%.  In California Donald Trump ran virtually unopposed in the Republican party’s presidential primary, yet about a quarter of party voters rejected him in favor of candidates who had already dropped out of the race. California hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1988, when George H. W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis. Republicans have lost California by double digits in every presidential election since then. The closest vote was in 2004 when George W. Bush lost the state by 10 points and the largest gap came in 2008 when Sen. John McCain lost by 24.1 points to President Barack Obama.
Colorado:  Colorado was once a solid Red State. In 2008 the State was flipped Blue. The Colorado flip to Blue was so incredible that nobody is still sure about how it happened.  In the book The Blueprint: How the Democrats Won Colorado, it is revealed that Colorado's change was orchestrated by a well-planned invasion through elections and campaigns specifically designed to flip the State.  Since they've been in power, however, the Democrats have been back-pedaling.  Gun control legislation in 2013 led to recalls and resignations.  Republicans are officially in charge of the Colorado Senate, ending a decade-long drought where they painfully watched Democrats win the majority in five straight elections.  The streak ended in 2014. Senate Republicans hold 18 seats to the Democrats’ 17. House Democrats narrowly hold a 34-31 majority after three of their members were ousted in the 2014 election that clearly favored Republicans in Colorado.  So, I believe Trump may have a chance in Colorado.  The State has been journeying back towards the GOP since the orchestrated Democrat takeover a decade ago.    Real Clear Politics has the State as a toss-up.  Fox News has the State leaning Blue. NBC News has the leaning Blue.  The State's legislature is barely dominated by Republicans.  The Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate each carried the State in two of the four most recent elections.  If Colorado goes to Trump, it could be one of the States that may carry him over the top, and it would show how conservatism can reclaim a State, even after the Democrats orchestrate a hostile takeover.  However, FiveThirtyEight says Hillary has a 76.5% chance of winning the State.
Connecticut:  Hillary Clinton's lead is solid in Connecticut.  Real Clear Politics has the State leaning Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 95.5%.  According to ABC News, Connecticut is Solid Democratic. President Barack Obama won re-election in Connecticut by a wide margin, 17 percentage points, and the State hasn’t gone to a Republican for almost three decades. Scott McLean, a political science professor at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, said, ”I don't think it's likely that Connecticut will go Republican, but I do think there's a possibility of a closer race.  I think the ingredients are there for a more competitive race in Connecticut than we've seen in the last several cycles. All the ingredients are there for an opportunity for Trump.” “No one in the world thinks he has a shot in Connecticut,” said Stuart Stevens, Romney’s 2012 chief strategist. He went on to add, “I mean, he’s not going to win any state within that media market.”
Delaware:  Like Connecticut, Delaware is unquestionably Blue.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  
Florida:  We have Florida leaning towards Trump, but not solid for him.  Real Clear Politics has the State as a toss-up.  Fox News has the State as a toss-up. NBC News has the State as a toss-up.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans.  The Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate each carried the State in two of the four most recent elections.  According to Politico, too many African-American voters are uninspired by Clinton’s candidacy, leading her campaign to hit the panic button this week and launch an all-out blitz to juice-up voter enthusiasm in Florida.  FiveThirtyEight only has Hillary up by one point in Florida while I was writing this article.  The Washington Post has Trump barely up in Florida, and say that he “must win” Florida to win the presidency. Trump knows the importance of Florida, wrapping up an all-out blitz on Florida a few days ago.  He held five rallies in three days.

Georgia:  The question about Georgia comes down to Atlanta.  Will the black vote in that city come out for Hillary like they did for Obama, or is her unlikability so bad that they will stay home, or cast their vote elsewhere?  Then again, even with the numbers that came out for Obama, he still couldn't pull of a win in Georgia in either election.  Real Clear Politics has the State as a toss-up.  Fox News has the State as leaning Red. NBC News has the State as a toss-up.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections. Despite Donald Trump’s Georgia campaign executive director resigning a little over a month ago after his criminal past was revealed, and a number of polls saying that Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in the State, polls taken by local State pollsters show Trump up by 7 points.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 82.7%.

Hawaii:  Hawaii is unquestionably Blue.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  The forecast by FiveThirtyEight is that Hillary Clinton will win Hawaii easily, stating that her chance to win the State is at 98.6%.
Idaho:  Alabama is the reddest of the Red States.  Idaho, despite the import of Muslim Refugees into Boise, remains not far behind as a deep crimson GOP State. Real Clear Politics has the State solid Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans.  The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  Pretty much all of the polls have Trump up by double digits, many of them by more than 20%.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.2%.
Illinois: You would think that after being dominated by failed Democrat Party policies, and despite vicious gun control laws in Chicago the city remains the gun violence and murder capital of the country, Illinois would start moving towards the GOP.  Nope.  They've bought into the Liberal Left Propaganda that all Republicans are evil, and Trump is a racist, sexist, xenophobic, homophobic, Islamophobic crazy man who wants to deport everyone he doesn't like.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  The forecast by FiveThirtyEight is that Hillary Clinton will win Illinois easily, stating that her chance to win the State is at 98.6%.  While Californians believe that they have the bluest of the blue States, that designation might actually lie with Illinois. Illinois is the most Democrat-dominated State in the union, measured by the party’s control over state government and its votes for U.S. Senate and president.  The Democrats have controlled the governor’s mansion and both houses of the legislature since January 2003. They stayed in power even after their two-time governor was impeached following one of the biggest corruption scandals in the state’s history.  The State's blue designation is largely anchored by Chicago, but the suburbs are becoming even more blue with each election.
Indiana:  With Mike Pence, the governor of Indiana, as Donald Trump's running mate, the already red State is now a shoe-in for the Republican ticket.  However, for some reason, the mainstream media has the State only leaning towards Trump.  Real Clear Politics has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State leaning Red. NBC News has the State leaning Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The Republican candidate carried the State in three of the four most recent elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 95.7%.
Iowa:  While I am a firm believer Trump will carry Iowa, we have it leaning Red rather than solid Red because Iowa has a finicky history and a blue legislature.  In fact, I am real close to considering it a toss-up State.  Real Clear Politics has the State as a toss-up.  Fox News has the State as a toss-up. NBC News has the State as a toss-up.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats. The Democratic candidate carried the state in three of the four most recent elections.  Despite the doubts by the mainstream media, FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 61.4%.
Kansas:  The local press will tell you that Kansas is a Red State, and in the western portion of the State it is solid Red.  However, they also admit they are under attack by Democrats seeking to flip the State, particularly through an influx of Hispanics.  One local newspaper states one of the reasons Hispanics are not willing to consider Trump as the next President of the United States is because they like Obamacare.  Real Clear Politics has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State leaning Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 94.6%.
Kentucky:  A solid red State, and pretty much considered so by all. However, according to some media outlets, based on the performance of Trump in one poll of Kentucky, Donald Trump has nearly blown a 12 point lead in Mitch McConnell's home state, and now leads Hillary Clinton within the poll's margin of error – making it a toss-up State.  None of our other polls, however, have caught on to that ridiculous idea.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.6%.
Louisiana:  The Louisiana governor, Governor Bobby Jindal, is extremely popular, and Louisiana has turned its back on the days they were flirting with being blue before and immediately after Hurricane Katrina.   Real Clear Politics has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.4%.
Maine:  Maine is one of two States where the electoral votes can be split, and in this election, they will be.  The State has three electoral votes.  The half with two is where the cities are, and the half with one electoral vote is the rural region.  All of the polls we've been using have the “2″ Electoral Vote portion blue, or leaning blue, and all of them have the rural area as a toss-up.  I agree the larger of the two sections in terms of electoral votes and population will go to Hillary, but I believe the rural area (one electoral vote) will go to Donald Trump.    Real Clear Politics, Fox News, and NBC News all agree.  Larger district will go to Hillary, and rural portion is a toss-up.  While the State's legislature is dominated by Republicans, the Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning District 1 at 90.7%.  The site has District 2 in a dead heat, with 50% for each candidate.
Maryland:  Maryland  is unquestionably Blue.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.9%.
Massachusetts:  Massachusetts is also unquestionably Blue.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.   FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.8%.  That all said, Massachusetts did put Republican Scott Brown into the Senate Seat previously occupied by Ted Kennedy from 2010 to 2013, which tells us there is some red somewhere in all that blue.  Granted, Brown wasn't a very conservative Republican, but he did work with the Republicans more than the Democrats.  Scott Brown has, by the way, endorsed Trump.
Michigan:  Surprise, surprise, after Detroit has been destroyed by liberal policies, the very blue State of Michigan is now only leaning blue, and for some, it may even be considered a toss-up.   Real Clear Politics has the State only leaning Blue.  Fox News also has the State leaning Blue. NBC News has the State leaning Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.   While FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 79.8%, there are some who believe it is possible that Michigan may go red.  The Washington Post says that “In 2012, President Obama won the state by almost 10 percentage points. But much has changed in Michigan, which serves as an example of what happens when skilled, reform-minded Republicans take on Democratic incompetence and overreach.  Today it is not the same deep-blue Michigan. Since November 2012, the president’s approval ratings have dropped like a stone. He is underwater in Michigan, and opposition to Obamacare runs high. Meanwhile, Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has been on a roll, helping to revive the western Michigan economy, ushering Detroit into bankruptcy and hopefully revival, and signing into law right-to-work legislation. In addition, Of the 14 congressional districts, nine are held by Republicans. Republicans also hold the office of Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General, and they have majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Any suggestion that a Republican can’t win a U.S. Senate seat defies logic.”  Could all of the polls be wrong?  Perhaps I should change Michigan to Gray.
Minnesota:  Like Michigan, Minnesota's Great Lakes area neighbor two States away, Minnesota is only “leaning” Blue.  Real Clear Politics has the State leaning Blue.  Fox News has the State leaning Blue. NBC News has the State leaning Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 83%.  While Minnesota's chances of going to Trump are slim, and definitely not anywhere near Michigan's chances, the State is no longer solid Blue, either.  Minnesota has voted Democratic in presidential elections since 1976.  Several election forecasters have Minnesota listed as less than true blue this election.  The Louis Jacobson/Governing magazine map changed Minnesota’s rating from likely Democratic to lean Democratic on October 5, calling Clinton’s margins “relatively narrow.”  Each forecast and poll site has its own methodology, but few seem to regard Minnesota — the state that currently has the longest-running Democratic presidential voting streak — as “safe Democratic” in this race.  In 2012 Obama won by a 7.7 percentage point margin — smaller than his 10-plus point margin of victory in Minnesota in 2008.  Polls reflect an underlying change in Minnesota’s electorate: according to one trusted measure of a state’s partisan leanings, Minnesota has become less blue in presidential elections, relative to all U.S. states, over time.  In other words Minnesota voters continue to get less liberal compared to the rest of the U.S.  These changes may not lead Minnesota to abandon the Democrat Party in 2016, but if the change continues, we may see it become a State that is no longer a sure win for Democratic presidential candidates in the future.  
Mississippi:   Real Clear Politics has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 97.8%.
Missouri:  According to a number of polls, until recently, Missouri only leaned Red, or was a toss-up State.  According to Real Clear Politics' averaging of the polls, Missouri has gotten back on its red path, and is now solid Red.  The maps, however, still have Missouri just a bit short of reaching a solid Red Crimson.  Real Clear Politics on their election map has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State leaning Red. NBC News has the State leaning Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 94.7%.
Montana:  Montana is another one of those solid Red States that nobody seems to question.  Still, a few polls out there foolishly have the State only leaning Red, rather than solid Red.  That's a funny one, to be honest.  Trump has Montana with ease.  Real Clear Politics on their election map has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State leaning Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 93.7%.
Nebraska:  The polls have been all over the place with Nebraska.  Like Maine, Nebraska can split its Electoral votes, and while polls have one district consistently solid Red, the other district has been flirting with being a toss-up.  In our research, however, we believe both districts are solid Red in 2016.   Real Clear Politics on their election map has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News, however,  has District 1 solid Red, but District 2 a toss-up. District 3 is solid Red.  The State's legislature is non-partisan, and not bicameral. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  The three districts are addressed at the FiveThirtyEight site as follows: Trump's chance of winning District 1 is 91%, District 2 is 62.1%, and District 3 is at 99.3%.  Trump will easily win all 5 of Nebraska's electoral votes.
Nevada:  Nevada's been a real wildcard in this election, encouraging Trump to gamble on a number of visits to the State.  The third debate being in Las Vegas also stirred a lot of election interest in the usually blue State.  All three,  Real Clear Politics, Fox News, and NBC News, have Nevada as a toss-up State. The State's legislature is dominated by the Republicans. The Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate each carried the state in two of the four most recent elections.   FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 57.3%.  We have Nevada listed as a toss-up State as well, and we think the margin of victory to whoever takes the State will be much narrower than FiveThirtyEight is forecasting.
New Hampshire:  Somehow ever the mainstream media is saying that New Hampshire may be up for grabs.  Real Clear Politics on has the State showing as a toss-up State.  Fox News has the State leaning Blue. NBC News has the State leaning Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in only 1 of the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 73.3%.  New Hampshire's identity crisis may be the result of the Free State Project where conservatives have agreed to move to New Hampshire in an attempt to flip the State to Red.  The Boston Globe suggests the State may swing towards Trump because the large number of Sanders supporters in the State are not necessarily fans of Hillary Clinton.
New Jersey:  The Garden State is one of the few Northeastern States that is only leaning Blue. All of the State's immediate neighbors, except perhaps Pennsylvania, are solid Blue.   Real Clear Politics has the State showing as likely Blue.  Fox News and NBC News have the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats. The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 97.2%. We have no illusion that Trump has a chance to win New Jersey, but we also have to remember that the State voted in, and has been prospering under, a Republican governor, Chris Christie. . .and that's got to have some kind of influence, as well as perhaps explaining why some polls don't have the State as solid Blue.
New Mexico:  We nearly made New Mexico solid Blue.  But, the State has been a curious anomaly.  The State's Republican Governor, Susana Martinez, has been fairly popular.  Could that be convincing some voters to go Red?  Real Clear Politics, Fox News and NBC News all have New Mexico “leaning” Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans.  The Democrats have carried the State in three of the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 87.5%.  Almost seems like a State with a split personality, doesn't it?  Republican governor, Republican legislature, but in the tank for Hillary.  I am wondering if this is the year we see New Mexico go Red again, as we saw in 2004 and for six straight elections from 1968 to 1988.
New York:  This is an interesting one.  Both candidates have solid histories in New York, Clinton as a Senator, and Trump as a businessman.  Trump seems to think he can win New York, and even a New York Post writer has toyed with the idea. Longtime Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long told The Post, “I know how difficult it would be to win this state,” but he added Trump does have a shot.  I disagree.  New York belongs to Hillary.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is surprisingly dominated by Republicans. . . though I would not call a good number of them conservative.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  The forecast by FiveThirtyEight is that Hillary Clinton will win Hawaii easily, stating that her chance to win the State is at 99.7%.
North Carolina:  While we here at Political Pistachio have North Carolina currently as a toss-up State, I believe it will end up narrowly going to Trump on November 8.  Real Clear Politics has the State listed as a toss-up, as well.  Fox News has the State leaning Blue. NBC News has the State leaning Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans.  The Republicans have carried the State in three of the last four elections.  The forecast by FiveThirtyEight is very close, with Hillary Clinton's chance of winning the State at  51.4%, and Trump's chance at 48.6%.  Recent polls are beginning to show Trump charging ahead of Hillary in the Southern State.  Most of the media is mixed on Trump's chances in North Carolina, but I think he has a real chance in that State.  It is possible that North Carolina may be a required win in order to get to the White House.
North Dakota:  Can you say “Red as heck”?  While North Dakota is already a Red State, Trump's rhetoric about domestic drilling goes a long way in North Dakota where an oil boom had been bringing a lot of money to the State, and had been providing an incredible number of jobs – until Saudi Arabia's drop in prices made the fracking of North Dakota oil financially impossible.  The State needs another boom, and they believe Trump can orchestrate it.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State leaning Red – yeah, leave it up to NBC to actually have any doubt that North Dakota is a solid Red State.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 96.4%.
Ohio:  This is a big one in every presidential election, and we think it is leaning Red. The polls largely have it too close to call.  A tie.  A toss-up.  Real Clear Politics, Fox News, and NBC News all have Ohio listed as a toss-up State. The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate each carried the state in two of the four most recent elections (two for Bush, and two for Obama).  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 60.3%.
Oklahoma:  This is another one of those solid Red State, no matter who you're talking to. Real Clear Politics has the State solid Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.9%.
Oregon:  Surprised to see liberal Oregon as a toss-up State on our map?  There is a very good reason for that.  In 2014 Oregon voters, in a State that consistently votes Democrat, sent a warning to the Democrat Party.  Oregon voters overwhelmingly voted to cancel a new State law that would allowed driver's licenses to people who are in the United States illegally.  That tells us the Oregon voters feel strongly in favor of Trump's position on immigration, and that is the issue that originally launched Trump onto the political scene.  Could it be that the State of Oregon which would normally vote Democrat is willing to sway in Trump's direction?  Real Clear Politics has the State “leaning” Blue, which means it could very well be not the solid Blue State we have been lead to believe.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats, but it's not the out of control majority like we see in California.  In fact, the Republicans always seem to be in striking distance to change Oregon's legislature. It is true that the Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections, but from 1948 to 1988 the State only voted for a Democrat President once, in 1964 in the election that even God couldn't have beat Lyndon B. Johnson in because he was getting the sympathy vote.  Like most States Oregon also went for Franklin Delano Roosevelt all four times, but prior to that, in 18 elections since it became a State, Oregon had only voted for a Democrat twice.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 91.9%, but I am not so sure that is accurate.
Pennsylvania:  Another one of those important swing States that Trump badly needs, and after Trump's tremendous speech at Valley Forge on November 1, as well as other factors, Pennsylvania remains up in the air.  Real Clear Politics, Fox News, and NBC News have the State merely leaning Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The Democrat Party has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 79.9%. Despite those numbers against him, and the media claiming he has no chance to pull off Pennsylvania, we believe the State is in play. The Hill reports that Trump can win the State, and it will largely be because he has picked up a significant number of Democrats in that State. There is a strong groundswell of unexpected support in Pennsylvania for this year’s most unconventional Republican candidate that can’t be dismissed.  “Trump-Pence” signs are everywhere, while there’s little indication of enthusiasm for Clinton.  The Trump campaign, says The Hill writer, is almost a guerrilla operation, marked by a bottom-up groundswell from average voters who are rejecting the top-down, consultant-driven approach of the establishment Democrat.  It’s not just Republican Pennsylvanians growing disenchanted with that model. A flurry of recent reports have examined shifting partisan alignments among a sizable number of traditional Democratic voters in Pennsylvania.  Many Pennsylvanians, particularly outside the bustling city centers, are anxious about the decline of their own communities, and they see something in Trump they haven’t gotten from traditional politicos: respect for their communities and way of life.
Rhode Island:  Real Clear Politics has the State likely Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 92.7%.
South Carolina:  Though a historically Republican State, South Carolina is being seen as being “light red,” meaning it's considered to be not as solid as it has been in the past – or at least that is how the mainstream media views it.  Truthfully, there is no doubt South Carolina will be going for Mr. Trump in this election. Real Clear Politics has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State leaning Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 90.9%.
South Dakota:  This far north State is, and always has been, a very conservative one.  In its entire voting history since 1892 the State has only voted Democrat four times, two of those being for Roosevelt back in the thirties.  However, Real Clear Politics has the State only “likely” Red, rather than solid Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News, with their warped view of things, has South Dakota only leaning Red.  Nonetheless, all three figure the State will probably go to Donald Trump.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 95%.
Tennessee:  Historically a very conservative State, though they have been hit hard over the last couple years with Muslim immigration.  Here's a video about Shelbyville being hit hard by Muslim Somalis.  Granted, the rise in the number of Muslims in Tennessee is less than the national average, but the Islamic population is still doing what they can to make a big impact with big mosques and a push for an increase in numbers.  Real Clear Politics has the State likely Red.  Fox News has the State solid Red. NBC News has the State leaning Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 98%.
Texas:  All this talk about Texas possibly being a toss-up State, or that Hillary might have a chance to win the State because Trump has offended the growing Mexican population is a bunch of poppycock. The largest State in the lower 48 is so red that if Hillary wins they may once again seriously consider secession. . . and just about every conservative would probably move there, too.  True to the mainstream media's ridiculous narrative, Real Clear Politics, Fox News, and NBC News all have Texas merely leaning Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 95.5%.  There is no doubt in this writer's mind that Texas will go with Trump.
Utah:  Utah is another State where in the mainstream media there has been talk that Trump won't win the State. . . however, when it comes to Utah, the narrative is a little different.  Media-types don't think Hillary will win the State, but that independent candidate Evan McMullin might pull it off.  The argument?  Widespread rejection of Trump (because of his playboy lifestyle), but an unwillingness to vote for Hillary.  Well, I think the rejection of Hillary is strong enough in Utah that Trump will still win the State.  Real Clear Politics has the State leaning Red.  Fox News has the State as a toss-up. NBC News has the State as a toss-up.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 85.9%.  Yeah, I think McMullin may get a fair share of votes, but not enough to keep Trump from taking Utah.  Oh, by the way, Hillary's chances of taking Utah is 2.9%.
Vermont:  I have Vermont as a toss-up, and some of you may think that is totally nuts.  Vermont is a very Blue State.  In fact, they are so far to the left that is where Bernie Sanders got elected to represent.  Sander's popularity in Vermont is tremendous.  So, you might ask, how is it that Trump even has a chance in Vermont?  I believe the answer is because Bernie Sanders is so popular in that State.  There is a significant write-in campaign in Vermont for Bernie Sanders, and his power over the Vermont voters is much stronger than McMullin's over the Utah voters, which means I think there will be enough write-ins to upset the balance, divide the Democrat Party vote, and slip Vermont into the red column.  Real Clear Politics, Fox News, and NBC News all have Vermont solid Blue, as expected.  They don't think Trump has a chance to win the State.  I am half tempted to have the TV on a liberal station when the Vermont numbers come in just to see the shocked look on their faces.  The State's legislature is dominated by Democrats. The Democrat Party has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 97.6%.
Virginia:  Hillary's running mate, Tim Kaine, was governor of the State of Virginia, and is a Senator from the State of Virginia.  So, if Virginia was a toss-up, Kaine tilted it towards Hillary.  That said, Real Clear Politics has the State as a toss-up, while Fox News and NBC News has the State a leaning Blue.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans.  Both the Democrats and Republicans have two victories each from the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 80.7%.
Washington:  A toss-up?  In liberal Washington?  Well, the chance of the State going to Trump is not as good as Oregon going to the GOP nominee, but it is possible.  Seattle is where the liberals congregate.  The rest of the State, especially when you get out there around Spokane, is dark red.  I am not suggesting, however, Washington is ready to be flipped over to red, but I think the unlikeability of Hillary in Washington is enough to keep many Democrats in that State home, and I think the conservative Republicans are going to come out in droves. . . and it might be enough to give the State to Trump.  That said, I think Hillary will probably still win the State, albeit narrowly.  Real Clear Politics has the State solid Blue.  Fox News has the State solid Blue. NBC News has the State solid Blue.  However, the State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The Democrats, though, have carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 97.3%. 
West Virginia:  If Hillary ever had a chance to win West Virginia, it went out the window when she said she wanted to put coal miners out of work.  West Virginia is a solid Red State, anyway.  Real Clear PoliticsFox News and NBC News all have West Virginia as solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.8%.
Wisconsin:  The State of Scott Walker, who survived recall elections there that was staged by the unions, could go Red, but I doubt it.  Real Clear Politics, Fox News, and NBC News have the State leaning Blue which tells me they recognize that the Scott Walker popularity has weakened Hillary in the State, but like me, they are thinking it will still go to Hillary.  That said, I would not be overly surprised if Trump pulled off a win in Wisconsin.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans, but the Democrats have carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Hillary's chance of winning the State at 78.1%.
Wyoming:  Another State where the question isn't if the State is red, but a matter of how solid. . . and the answer is, “pretty solid.”  Real Clear PoliticsFox News and NBC News all have Wyoming as solid Red.  The State's legislature is dominated by Republicans. The GOP has carried the State in the last four elections.  FiveThirtyEight has Trump's chance of winning the State at 99.1%.
Federal district: 
Washington, D.C.:  The District of Columbia has always voted Democrat since the date they were given 3 Electoral Votes by the 23rd Amendment.  Real Clear Politics, Fox News and NBC News have the District a very dark, solid Blue.  The District's political offices are dominated by Democrats.  The forecast by FiveThirtyEight is that Hillary Clinton's chances to will win Washington D.C. is a whopping 99.9%.

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