Does Ace of Spades expect a Trump victory? No.
So can Trump win? I don’t think so. I thought to win, we’d need one big Black Swan event, which could have taken several forms:
1. A really killer Wikileak leak. No really killer ones lately. Wikileak is demolishing the media but the media isn’t on the ballot.
2. Hillary “nearly stumbles” again, as the media claimed when the nation saw her buckle and have what sure looked like a seizure or a major neurological episode. This should never have been forgotten — but the public tends to forget things rapidly, when the media isn’t reminding them. And the media stopped talking about Hillary’s health within 48 hours. We needed another episode to remind people.
3. A major piece of bad economic news. We’ve gotten plenty of bad economic news, but nothing big enough to break through to the public.
4. Another terrorist attack. No, I’m not hoping for this (as I’m not hoping for a bad economy, either); I’m just saying, the media does not want to talk about terrorism, because hillary doesn’t want to talk about it, and the only way we would talk about it is after a terrorist incident.
5. That the polls are just wrong and missing millions of voters.
I have hoped for the last possibility enough times and seen those hopes dashed an equal number of times that I’m not very big on 5.
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