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What happened to the Harris County Republican Party?

Monday, November 14, 2016 16:48
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(Before It's News)

If you can answer the question of what happened to the Harris County Republican Party in the November 8 election, you’ll win a big prize. Like, a really, really big prize.

The guys over at Texas Conservative Review think that they know:

Harris County GOP Suffers Historic Wipeout Led By Chair Simpson’s Messageless Campaign

Who devised this “joke” joint campaign? Paul Simpson, County Chair, was in charge. When Paul Simpson challenged long-time social conservative chair Jared Woodfill in 2014, he criticized him for a weak showing in 2008 and 2012, and said “he had a plan” to get the party back on track.

Well in 2008 and 2012, we won many countywide races while Obama was sweeping the country. This year, Trump sweeps and we get nothing. Based on the Woodfill standard, Simpson’s utter and complete failure calls for his resignation so the party can bring in new visionary leadership that can begin to rebuild the decimated Republican Party in Harris County.

The fact is, the 2018 election starts today and waiting until the 2018 primary to oust Paul Simpson could be too late for our ticket, including our many great judges, in 2018.

This is not about ego! It is not about who is in charge. It’s about the survival of the GOP in Harris County.

I suppose that was written by former HCRP Chair Gary Polland, they aren’t real clear over there about who writes what.

Unless they are. Marc Cowart’s byline is on this one:

It’s the Message, Stupid.

And what was the Republican message this year? – “Harris County Works.” It doesn’t exactly have the aspirational ring of “Make America Great Again” or even Hillary’s “Stronger Together.” And it definitely does not tap into the desire for change sentiment resonating across the nation. It is very much a message of “everything is ok here, let’s maintain the status quo.” Those were my feelings going into the election, but I had to wonder if I was way off base, so I decided to get the opinions of voters in my area who aren’t in the political echo chamber. The results confirmed what I suspected – people were confused and uninspired by the slogan. Most thought that it had something to do with street repair and drainage ditches. Hmmm…no, I think that is “Public Works”, not “Harris County Works.” The next common response is that it referred to low unemployment in Harris County. Again, not the intended result of the message.

“Harris County Works” did not work now and will not work in the future. It’s the message, stupid, and we need a new one.

Well, I did warn you that if the Democrats swept Harris County, current HCRP Chair Paul Simpson would be on the firing line. As he should be of course.

But before we decide that Simpson is the problem, here are a couple of tables for you to think about. I promise we’ll get to the discussion about Simpson soon enough but there is plenty of time for that.

Obviously we all know that EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN on the ballot countywide in Harris County lost their election. And that is bad. Very, very bad. I’m told it’s been a very, very long time since that happened. There might be something in the numbers that each candidate secured to help us figure this out down the road.

Candidate Mail EV ED Total
Mike Sullivan  48,200  429,655  161,672  639,527
Tracy Elizabeth Christopher  47,293  418,418  155,650  621,361
Debra Ibarra Mayfield  47,490  417,871  155,709  621,070
Linda Garcia  45,723  417,505  157,128  620,356
Renee Magee  47,390  417,721  155,211  620,322
Erin Elizabeth Lunceford  47,400  417,045  155,378  619,823
Sherry Radack  47,577  416,960  154,544  619,081
Kristin M. Guiney  47,305  417,245  154,477  619,027
Stacey W. Bond  47,407  415,526  154,080  617,013
Eva Guzman  47,424  415,097  153,538  616,059
Ryan Patrick  46,984  414,712  153,817  615,513
Mark Kent Ellis  47,307  413,508  152,336  613,151
Joseph “Tad” Halbach  46,623  412,036  152,245  610,904
Brock Thomas  47,206  411,519  152,031  610,756
Clyde Raymond Leuchtag  46,357  410,572  150,967  607,896
Ron Hickman  45,850  410,521  150,199  606,570
Grant Dorfman  46,236  408,939  151,009  606,184
Katherine McDaniel  45,221  408,746  151,945  605,912
Kevin Jewell  46,212  408,353  151,071  605,636
Cindy Bennett Smith  45,258  408,136  152,207  605,601
Kevin Fulton  45,816  407,595  151,039  604,450
Alyssa Lemkull  46,048  406,293  149,120  601,461
Evelyn Keyes  44,810  405,760  150,585  601,155
Mary McFaden  45,346  405,645  149,905  600,896
Fred Shuchart  46,108  405,707  149,059  600,874
Sharon Hemphill  44,418  404,599  149,939  598,956
Will Archer  43,447  403,652  150,058  597,157
Bruce Bain  44,739  402,691  149,126  596,556
Debra Lehrmann  46,384  403,708  145,825  595,917
Sarahjane Swanson  44,024  401,548  148,652  594,224
Sophia Mafrige  44,333  400,054  146,963  591,350
Scott Walker  46,167  400,434  144,621  591,222
Jim Leitner  43,392  399,053  147,156  589,601
Mary Lou Keel  44,968  399,574  144,541  589,083
Devon Anderson  43,883  396,936  147,079  587,898
Michael E. Keasler  44,170  398,142  144,730  587,042
Jeff Hastings  43,316  396,739  146,554  586,609
Don Self  43,468  396,601  146,130  586,199
Paul Green  44,860  396,568  143,646  585,074
Phil Gommels  42,811  393,028  144,814  580,653
Wayne Christian  43,236  385,546  138,643  567,425
Donald Trump  42,060  372,126  130,774  544,960

Let’s sort those vote totals by turnout on Election Day since the HCRP’s strategy depended upon a strong ground game to GOTV and a much reduced emphasis on mail ballots from previous years.

Candidate Mail EV ED Total
Mike Sullivan  48,200  429,655  161,672  639,527
Linda Garcia  45,723  417,505  157,128  620,356
Debra Ibarra Mayfield  47,490  417,871  155,709  621,070
Tracy Elizabeth Christopher  47,293  418,418  155,650  621,361
Erin Elizabeth Lunceford  47,400  417,045  155,378  619,823
Renee Magee  47,390  417,721  155,211  620,322
Sherry Radack  47,577  416,960  154,544  619,081
Kristin M. Guiney  47,305  417,245  154,477  619,027
Stacey W. Bond  47,407  415,526  154,080  617,013
Ryan Patrick  46,984  414,712  153,817  615,513
Eva Guzman  47,424  415,097  153,538  616,059
Mark Kent Ellis  47,307  413,508  152,336  613,151
Joseph “Tad” Halbach  46,623  412,036  152,245  610,904
Cindy Bennett Smith  45,258  408,136  152,207  605,601
Brock Thomas  47,206  411,519  152,031  610,756
Katherine McDaniel  45,221  408,746  151,945  605,912
Kevin Jewell  46,212  408,353  151,071  605,636
Kevin Fulton  45,816  407,595  151,039  604,450
Grant Dorfman  46,236  408,939  151,009  606,184
Clyde Raymond Leuchtag  46,357  410,572  150,967  607,896
Evelyn Keyes  44,810  405,760  150,585  601,155
Ron Hickman  45,850  410,521  150,199  606,570
Will Archer  43,447  403,652  150,058  597,157
Sharon Hemphill  44,418  404,599  149,939  598,956
Mary McFaden  45,346  405,645  149,905  600,896
Bruce Bain  44,739  402,691  149,126  596,556
Alyssa Lemkull  46,048  406,293  149,120  601,461
Fred Shuchart  46,108  405,707  149,059  600,874
Sarahjane Swanson  44,024  401,548  148,652  594,224
Jim Leitner  43,392  399,053  147,156  589,601
Devon Anderson  43,883  396,936  147,079  587,898
Sophia Mafrige  44,333  400,054  146,963  591,350
Jeff Hastings  43,316  396,739  146,554  586,609
Don Self  43,468  396,601  146,130  586,199
Debra Lehrmann  46,384  403,708  145,825  595,917
Phil Gommels  42,811  393,028  144,814  580,653
Michael E. Keasler  44,170  398,142  144,730  587,042
Scott Walker  46,167  400,434  144,621  591,222
Mary Lou Keel  44,968  399,574  144,541  589,083
Paul Green  44,860  396,568  143,646  585,074
Wayne Christian  43,236  385,546  138,643  567,425
Donald Trump  42,060  372,126  130,774  544,960

There are some very interesting differences there but I’ll let you look for them for now. One thing is clear – Mike Sullivan out performed every Republican. And Sullivan won every single category – Mail In, Early Vote and Election Day. Donald Trump lost every single category. Think about that for a bit. We’ll come back to it in the future.

One more table to ponder. How was the party funded? This is of particular interest because one of the criticisms of year’s past is that the candidates had to fund the party because the social conservatives in charge couldn’t raise money from the business community. Here is a table of all contributions above

Contributor Name Amount Employer
McGill ,Donald 90,000.00 Don McGill Auto Group
Bosarge ,W. E. 75,000.00 Quantlab Financial
McNair ,Robert 75,000.00 Houston Texans
Weekley ,Richard W. 50,000.00 Weekley Properties
Weekley ,David 40,000.00 David Weekley Homes
Judge Alyssa Lemkuil Campaign 27,500.00
Hassenflu ,K. Alan 25,000.00 Fidelis Realty
Steve Radack Campaign Fund 25,000.00
Wall ,Kathaleen 25,000.00 Retired
Republican Party Of Texas 20,000.00
Wall ,Kathaleen 20,000.00 Retired
Debra Mayfield Campaign 17,500.00
Holcomb ,James 15,000.00 JRH Investments Partners LTD
Jack Morman Campaign Account 15,000.00
Judge Joseph Tad Halbach Campaign 15,000.00
Nau ,John L. 15,000.00 Silver Eagle Distributors
Salem ,Khaled 15,000.00 Williamsburg Enterprises
Tracy Christopher for Judge Campaign 14,500.00
Sarahjane Swanson Campaign 14,000.00
Judge Erin Lunceford Campaign 13,750.00
Judge Erin Lunceford Campaign 13,750.00
Sherry Radack Judicial Campaign 13,750.00
Sherry Radack Judicial Campaign 13,750.00
Tracy Christopher for Judge Campaign 13,000.00
Judge Grant Dorfman Campaign 12,500.00
Judge Joseph Tad Halbach Campaign 12,500.00
Mark Kent Ellis Campaign 12,000.00
Associated Republicans of Texas 10,000.00
Cagle Campaign 10,000.00
Debra Mayfield Campaign 10,000.00
Judge Grant Dorfman Campaign 10,000.00
Judge Joseph Tad Halbach Campaign 10,000.00
Justice Eva Guzman 10,000.00
Kevin Jewell Campaign 10,000.00
Mike Sullivan Campaign 10,000.00
Republican Party Of Texas 10,000.00
Sarahjane Swanson Campaign 10,000.00
Village Republican Womens Club 10,000.00
Village Republican Womens Club 10,000.00
Fred Shuchart Campaign 9,500.00
Sophia Mafrige for Judge Campaign 9,500.00
Fred Shuchart Campaign 9,000.00
Fred Shuchart Campaign 9,000.00
Katherine McDaniel Judge Campaign 8,000.00
Fred Shuchart Campaign 7,500.00
Justice Evelyn Keyes Campaign 7,500.00
Justice Evelyn Keyes Campaign 7,500.00
Stacey Bond Campaign 7,500.00
Don Self Campaign 6,875.00
Northwest Forest Republican Women PAC 6,000.00
Bruce Bain Campaign 5,500.00
Brock Thomas for Judge Campaign 5,000.00
Brock Thomas for Judge Campaign 5,000.00
Clyde Leuchtag Campaign 5,000.00
Clyde Leuchtag Campaign 5,000.00
Conservative Citizens Club PAC 5,000.00
Donna Bahorich Campaign 5,000.00
Friends of Devon Anderson 5,000.00
Jim Leitner Campaign 5,000.00
Judge Erin Lunceford Campaign 5,000.00
Judge Grant Dorfman Campaign 5,000.00
Judge Grant Dorfman Campaign 5,000.00
Kristin Guiney Campaign 5,000.00
Ron Hickman for Sheriff 5,000.00
Ryan Patrick Judge Campaign Fund 5,000.00
Sheri Dean Campaign Account 5,000.00
Wall ,Kathaleen 5,000.00 Retired
William D. Archer Campaign 5,000.00
Mary McFaden for Judge 4,500.00
Northwest Forest Republican Women PAC 4,500.00
Bay Area Republican Women PAC 4,000.00
Bruce Bain Campaign 4,000.00
Judge Linda Garcia Campaign 4,000.00
Kevin Fulton Campaign For Judge 4,000.00
Ryan Patrick Judge Campaign Fund 4,000.00
Bay Area Republican Women PAC 3,000.00
Cindy Bennett Smith Campaign Account 3,000.00
Kingwood Area Republican Women PAC 3,000.00
Kristin Guiney Campaign 3,000.00
Magic Circle Republican Women’s Club 3,000.00
Sarahjane Swanson Campaign 3,000.00
Sophia Mafrige for Judge Campaign 3,000.00
Wall ,Kathaleen 3,000.00 Retired
Brock Thomas For Judge Campaign 2,500.00
Debra Mayfield Campaign 2,500.00
Friends of Devon Anderson 2,500.00
Judge Alyssa Lemkuil Campaign 2,500.00
Lloyd Wright Campaign Fund 2,500.00
Philip M. Gommels Campaign 2,500.00
Renee Magee Campaign 2,500.00
William D. Archer Campaign 2,500.00

The average contribution was $7,472.51. The median contribution was $4,000.00. The total raised on state account #00025207 from 7/1/16 – 11/10/16 was $1,105,932.05.

I’ll let you review that list without comment for now. Those numbers are only on the state report and as noted are from July 1st through November 10th. There is a Federal account that we’ll have to look at in the future but this gives you a fairly good idea of what is happening. One thing you won’t see on the report are the hundreds of small donations that we’ve seen in the past, which is good in that it makes it easy to look through.

Okay, you have some homework to do. Before you toss Paul Simpson to the curb, read through the stuff above and come up with a few questions to ask. A few things to stimulate your thought:

  • If Republicans hate women, why are 9 out of our 10 top vote getters women?
  • How did Mike Sullivan out perform the field?
  • Why did people stop giving small donations to the party?
  • Are the businessmen at the top of the donor list setting policy for the HCRP?
  • Would a qualified candidate for Railroad Commissioner have helped turnout?
  • Why did Trump do so poorly in Harris County?

The post What happened to the Harris County Republican Party? appeared first on Big Jolly Politics.

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