With just under a week to go until the election, I think it's a good time to asses where we are and what to expect.
Caveat: This analysis does not figure in possible unexpected 'black swan' events! As we've seen, literally anything can happen!
As I and others predicted, as we get closer to election day the public polling were going to tighten up considerably. This is no accident. The stuff showing Hillary Clinton 12 points plus ahead was always bogus and a political tactic to try and dampen enthusiasm and turnout for Trump. Having seen the rabid crowds Trump was drawing at his rallies and even more important, hearing what people were actually saying on the street it was obvious that tried and true tactic wasn't working this time out.
At this point the media commissioned public polls are merely trying to retain a scrap of credibility for next time by reflecting far more accurate numbers. It's interesting that polls like the L.A Times/USC and Investor's Business Daily that always showed Clinton and Trump fairly close together and even showed Trump ahead at times. They haven't changed anything like the degree of most of the others to show this 'tightening' effect.I'll mention some polling in this analysis just for giggles. but here's an excellent rule to follow this week:
Bottom line, ignore the polls, and that especially applies to exit polls and calls by the networks on Election Day.
Rest assured they will be skewed, both deliberately and simply because a lot of people will have very good reasons to keep their choice private given the bullying Hillary's supporters exhibit at every opportunity. Even putting a Trump sticker on your car is asking it to be vandalized and maybe worse. It's how the Left operates.
Believe nothing in terms of results until it's all over. And to be frank, perhaps not even then...
So. who's going to win?
It's impossible to say with certainty because this is not going to be an honest election. Evidence of blatant voter fraud has already been found in Texas, Indiana, Colorado and Florida, and it will certainly occur in California, Philadelphia and Detroit.
But there are several key items that will decide how the election is going to go:
The Donald isn't ignoring them, he's actively courting them and talking about real problems and real solutions to people who bear the brunt of having to live with the effects of decisions made by the cabal in DC. How much of an effect this is going to have is impossible to guess, but all indications are that Trump will get more black support than any GOP presidential candidate in years. Yes, the majority of black voters will still vote to stay on the Democrat Plantation. But for the most part they're not all that excited with Hillary, who isn't offering them anything but the dysfunctional status quo. So black turnout for Hillary is probably going to be lower than it was in 2012, while Trump's black supporters are a lot more likely to turn out and vote, just like most Trump supporters. It's impossible to predict accurately but it might be enough to offset some of the voter fraud. I wouldn't be surprised to see Donald Trump getting between 20-30% of the black vote this year. If that number is somewhere between 25-30%, especially in the battleground states, I think we end up calling the Donald Mr. President.
Donald Trump has managed to get this far while fighting off the Democrats, their blatantly partisan media, and the Republican establishment of his own party while being outspent 50-1. If he wins, it will be one of the biggest political upsets in history.
But then Trump is not your typical candidate in any sense, the majority of the electorate is in an angry, ugly mood and insurgency is in the air. And to paraphrase Michael Moore, it would be the biggest 'up yours' to our self-appointed Ruling Class ever, a class the American people increasingly see Hillary as representing. I wouldn't underestimate these sentiments.
We'll know how all this plays out in about a week.