Death Spiral: Are You Living in a State Poised for Economic Collapse?

By Mac Slavo

Being on the hook is not going to be pretty when interest rates are raised back up, and debts come due. At a personal level, it will mean more stress and juggling to make ends meet. For the larger economy, it will mean cities and states unable to meet obligations or balance their budgets – ending in bankruptcy, and bailouts. Meanwhile, millions of people are relying on that money to keep coming in order to survive. Something is going to go very wrong.

Relying upon government to function and send you money is not a secure plan.

The mathematics are terrifying and dismal, and so is being caught up in these collapsing states.

In the next phase of the financial crisis, the debt supercycle will become the most defining feature of the big hurt that will fall on nearly everyone.

That’s the dire warning that Goldman Sachs issued about what they termed the Third Wave of the global collapse. But it hasn’t come, at least not yet:

This wave is characterised by rock-bottom commodities prices, stalling growth in China and other emerging-markets economies, and low global inflation, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Peter Oppenheimer said in a big-picture note.

This triple whammy has its roots in the response to the first two waves of crisis — the banking collapse and European sovereign-debt crisis — and it is all part of the so-called debt supercycle of the past few decades.

Unfunded liabilities for pensions and other state benefits are threatening the security and future of an entire generation of retiring, hardworking Americans.

The debt will be shifted for as long as possible… but eventually, someone will have to come to terms with it. The black hole totals up to huge sums of money; no one can pay; and the system is bankrupted, or services rendered become inadequate and farcical.

Forbes contributor William Baldwin describes the acute problem of “death spiral states,” which could actually be as bad as it sounds. It affects dozens of cities and municipalities as well.

Does your state have more takers than makers? Check it out.

California has a powerful economy, with 14 million private-sector jobs. It also has burdens: welfare recipients (12.6 million), generously paid government employees (2.1 million) and people collecting government pensions (1.3 million).

Add up the numbers. There are 114 clients drawing from the government for every 100 people chipping in by working outside the government and paying taxes. We’re calling this the Feedme Ratio. Six states have a number over 100.

These states are at risk of going into a downward spiral in the next recession. The burdens will remain but too many of the providers—employers in the private sector—might shrink or decamp.

Right now, the biggest risks for a bankruptcy or collapse is in the these states, based upon the ratio between what Baldwin terms “makers” and “takers.” Basically, the socialist state is enveloping all prosperity:

• New Mexico – 148 dependents per 100 private sector workers

• West Virginia – 116 dependents per 100 private sector workers

• California – 114 dependents per 100 private sector workers

• Mississippi – 111 dependents per 100 private sector workers

• New York – 108 dependents per 100 private sector workers

• Arkansas – 103 dependents per 100 private sector workers

Detroit and Chicago top the lists of cities who wouldn’t be healthy in the ratio of makers/takers either, and would crumble in a debt crunch.

You can check on your state via this interactive map, though it is dated slightly to 2015.

Read more stories at SHTFplan.