Viva Italia! Italy Votes ‘No’ in Referendum, Renzi to Resign, Nail in Coffin for EU

In what has becoming a stunning movement for freedom and individual rights, Italy, too has voted to overthrow the political status quo.

Projections late Sunday indicated that Italian voters have rejected proposed constitutional changes, in what if confirmed would be a stinging rebuke to the country’s leader and a victory for populists in the heartland of Europe. (WSJ)

The Trump effect.

Italy’s Referendum Could Be The Nail In The Coffin For The EU

December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses

The referendum is a “test of strength of the anti-Europe and anti-establishment forces in Italy,” former Italian diplomat Stefano Stefanini told The New York Times. The proposed vote would rewrite 47 of the 139 articles in the Italian constitution, which Renzi says need to be replaced to allow the government to compete with European economies.

“If Renzi’s referendum fails, it will be seen as another symbolic victory for the populists that portends greater risk for other states and the EU,” a Eurasia Group Europe analyst told The Telegraph. He continued, “It will make the EU defensive and inward-looking, and more incapable of addressing the problems that are giving rise to the populists in the first place.”

It failed.  Between 57% and 61% of voters opposed constitutional changes sought by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, according to Istituto Piepoli projections.

The EU jumped the shark with the Muslim invasion of Europe and they are going down.

The Express: Mr Renzi hoped Italy’s oldest bank will be bailed out by the Qatari Royal family

As voters go to the polls today to take part in their referendum, bankers at Banca Monte dei Paschi de Siena are attempting a last minute bail-out deal from bondholders, supported by the Prime Minister who has gone all out to request help.

The government has gone cap in hand to the Qatari royal family and a number of US hedge funds in the hope they can request a £4.2BN bail-out ahead of the crunch vote.

According to reports the bank has issued a voluntary bondholder debt-for-equity swap to raise £1.25bn and will further request £830m from the Qatari royal family.It has also been reported that six hedge funds, including those that belong to billionaires George Soros and John Paulson, are stepping in to offer much needed liquidity.

GETTY

Ordinary Italians have been hit hard by Italy’s banking crisis

Insiders say if the bank fails to raise enough funds US banks, including JP Morgan, Mediobanca, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, will move into asset strip triggering a Lehman brothers style collapse.

According to reports but dependent on the result of the referendum, Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, is considering allowing a bail out.

However, new rules mean investors must first face serious right downs before Brussels steps in.

Indeed the outcome of the referendum will have a significant impact with Italy facing a potential ratings downgrade.

“My Government Ends Here” Renzi Loses Italian Referendum, Will Offer Resignation To President” –

By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, December 3, 2016:

Summary: this is what has happened so far in yet another major overthrow of the political status quo:

1.  Italy PM Renzi lost by a large margin
2. In a speech moments after the results were announce, Renzi confirmed he would hand in his resignation tomorrow.
3. As Bloomberg notes, the scale of the loss and how quickly it happened cast a huge shadow on the fate of the continent headed into 2017.
4. The EURUSD has tumbled to lows not seen since March 2015

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So what happens next? We leave it to Doug Casey to sum it all up succinctly:

December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses

Here is The Wall Street Journal to explain in more detail what happens next…

New Renzi Government:

Italian President Sergio Mattarella could ask Mr. Renzi to reshuffle his cabinet and form a new government. However, Mr. Renzi has said in recent days that he is unlikely to accept such an option, given that he would be in a much-weakened position following the vote.

A Caretaker Administration:

Mr. Mattarella could ask someone else to lead a new government with a limited mandate to oversee the drafting of a new electoral law and pass the 2017 budget. One candidate is Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who could help soothe markets that have been nervous about political instability following a no vote. Others include Pietro Grasso, speaker of Italy’s Senate, and Dario Franceschini, the current culture minister.

Electoral-Law Snarl:

Major political parties are pushing to change an electoral law passed last year that would give extra seats in Parliament to any party winning 40% or more of the vote. That measure was intended to make for more stable governments. Establishment politicians now worry that it could help the populist 5 Star Movement gain power and want to rewrite the rules before any new national election.

*  *  *

Update #6: Renzi’s Speech:

• RENZI CONCEDES REFERENDUM DEFEAT, SAYING PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN
• ITALY PM RENZI SAYS I TAKE FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR DEFEAT
• RENZI: “NO” LEADERS NOW HAVE GREAT RESPONSIBILITIES
• RENZI: WE HAVE FAILED IN CONVINCING CITIZENS, WE WANTED TO WIN
• RENZI SAYS HE WILL OFFER HIS RESIGNATION TO PRESIDENT
• RENZI: MY GOVERNMENT ENDS HERE

*  *  *

Update #5: Renzi just tweeted to his 2.77 million followers: “Thanks to all of you anyway. In a few minutes I will be speaking to you directly from Palazzo Chigi. Long live Italy! PS Am coming, am coming….”

Grazie a tutti, comunque. Tra qualche minuto sarò in diretta da Palazzo Chigi. Viva l’Italia!
Ps Arrivo, arrivo

— Matteo Renzi (@matteorenzi) December 4, 2016

Grazie a tutti, comunque. Tra qualche minuto sarò in diretta da Palazzo Chigi. Viva l’Italia!
Ps Arrivo, arrivo

— Matteo Renzi (@matteorenzi) December 4, 2016

Grazie a tutti, comunque. Tra qualche minuto sarò in diretta da Palazzo Chigi. Viva l’Italia!
Ps Arrivo, arrivo

— Matteo Renzi (@matteorenzi) December 4, 2016

Grazie a tutti, comunque. Tra qualche minuto sarò in diretta da Palazzo Chigi. Viva l’Italia!
Ps Arrivo, arrivo

— Matteo Renzi (@matteorenzi) December 4, 2016

*  *  *

Update #4: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to meet President Sergio Mattarella early Monday, as exit polls show he’s suffered a heavy defeat in a referendum on constitutional reform, according to a government official who asked not to be named. Renzi has pledged to resign if his plans to overhaul the constitution are rejected by voters.

Seems pretty clear…

Italy, Constitutional Referendum:

Lead for..

Yes: Three Regions
No: 17 Regions#ExitPoll #Referendum #italyreferendum pic.twitter.com/VkQTh8uxRp

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) December 4, 2016

EURUSD keeps sliding…getting close to some very srious support levels:

• 1.0524 is Dec 2015 lows
• 1.0518 is 11/24 lows
• 1.0458 is Mar 2015 lows

*  *  *

Update #3: First Projections confirm exit polls – wide margin of victory for “no” defeat for Renzi…

*  *  *

Update #2: Following the exit polls and the market’s response, “Northern League” leader Salvini has called for early elections:

• SALVINI: NO VICTORY WOULD MEAN PEOPLE DEFEATING ESTABLISHMENT
• ITALY NORTHERN LEAGUE LEADER CALLS FOR EARLY ELECTIONS: MNI

*  *  *

Update #1: The Exit polls have begun:

• *ITALY REFERENDUM: ‘NO’ AT 55%-59% IN EMG EXIT POLL
• *ITALY REFERENDUM: ‘NO’ AT 55%-59% IN TECNE EXIT POLL
• *ITALY REFERENDUM: ‘NO’ AT 54%-58% IN RAI EXIT POLL

Exit polls have at times proved unreliable in Italy, underestimating Renzi’s 2014 victory in European elections by 10 percentage points, but for now, the market seems convinced…

EURUSD is tumbling…

Some comments from anti-establishmentarians have begin:

• LE PEN AIDE ON ITALIAN REFERENDUM RESULT TWEETS ‘IT’S A GREAT VICTORY FOR THE PEOPLE…IT’S FOR OTHER NATIONS TO BE SET FREE’

Turnout was high.

• *ITALY REFERENDUM: ITALIANS ABROAD TURNOUT 30.9%:FOREIGN OFFICE

How did we get here? Here’s a quick timeline from Bloomberg’s Marco Bertacche

• April 15, 2014: The Senate approves first version of reform, backed by Renzi allies and Berlusconi’s party
• Jan. 31, 2015: Renzi’s candidate is elected president of the republic, prompting Berlusconi to withdraw support for reforms
• April 12, 2016: Lower house completes approval, lacking two-thirds majority needed to avoid referendum
• Aug. 4, 2016: Highest court accepts referendum request with more than 500,000 signatures from Yes campaign
• Sept. 26, 2016: Renzi’s cabinet calls for Dec. 4 referendum. Decision is binding

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, Italians voted Sunday in a referendum on constitutional reforms that Premier Matteo Renzi has staked his political future on, hoping to survive the rising populist forces that have gained traction across Europe.

Renzi has said he will resign if the reforms, which he contends will modernize Italy and reduce its legendary bureaucracy, are rejected. Opposition politicians, ranging from the far-right to the far-left have vowed to press for a new government if voters reject Parliamentary legislation overhauling much of the post-war Constitution.

Even some figures in Renzi’s Democratic Party, including ex-Communists, said they’d vote against the reforms.

Polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. local time (5pmET).

Bloomberg lays out what to expect, and when…

1500ET

Provisional turnout results for the vote as of 7 p.m. CET could indicate whether turnout is high in the South and Sicily, where anti-establishment parties are strong, which would signal bad news for Renzi. A high turnout in the Center and Northwest, his strongholds, may not be enough for him but could narrow the final margin. Renzi has indicated he’s aiming for a 60 percent turnout.

Overall turnout was around the 60% Renzi had expected, with a higher turnout in the North (more pro-Renzi) and lower turnout in the South (more anti-establishment)…

1800ET

Exit polls are published by at least three TV networks (RAI, LA7, Mediaset). Exit polls have often gotten it wrong in Italy. In the 2013 and 2006 general elections they overestimated the center-left’s lead by more than 5 points, and in 2008 they underestimated Silvio Berlusconi’s lead by 7 points. In the 2014 European elections, Renzi’s Democratic Party got almost 10 points more than exit polls predicted.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to speak at about midnight local time (6pmET) at his Rome residence, newswire Ansa citing his office.

1830-1845ET

First projections on counted votes may be published on TV stations. Votes will be counted continuously and updated on the Interior Ministry’s website throughout the night. A national total as well as regional and city breakdowns will be available.

1900ET

First provisional results from cities usually faster at counting votes should start coming in. Before a two-week poll blackout period, the “Yes” and “No” camps polled virtually even in the Northwest (Milan, Turin) and in the Center (Bologna), with the “No” side clearly ahead in the South (Naples) and in Sicily (Palermo). Milan could give the earliest real indication of where things are going. Traditionally a Berlusconi stronghold, it swung to center-left administrations in past years and elected a center-left mayor backing Renzi’s reforms in June. A wide lead for “No” in Milan could mean Renzi loses nationally.

1900-2000ET

New projections could indicate a winner before real vote counting is complete.

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