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What Hath Trump Wrought

Wednesday, October 23, 2019 8:33

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“What Hath Trump Wrought”

by David Stockman

“Hey, psst… over here… you know, there’s still a Trade War on… and the Donald is losing it. Veronique de Rugy recently broke it down for “Reason“: “After almost four years of lavish rhetoric against China, tariffs all over the place, manufacturing slowdowns, and rampant uncertainty, Trump got China to agree to very few concessions. Meanwhile, the United States will maintain those punishing tariffs on roughly $360 billion worth of imports. This means the supply chain will continue to be disrupted at the expense of American companies and consumers.”

And, no, a “skinny” trade deal won’t stop the slide toward global recession. The bigger problem is that the global economy, already saturated in debt, has only levered up even more into the very end of the business cycle.

The sell-by date on China’s “growth miracle” has long since passed. Xi Jinping has gone full authoritarian. Meanwhile, the Duopoly has left America vulnerable to “Great Power” challenges, and “MAGA” is not the answer. These trends were in place long before the Donald’s Trade War. And, as Chris Scott notes in his commentary on U.S.-China relations, the still-burgeoning conflict is unlikely to end anytime soon.”

“Worse Than the Cold War”

By Chris Scott

“I’ll get to a Trade War update, but first I’d like to provide some context for a conflict that’s already expanded into something larger. And I’ll also offer an explanation why the China we’re about to engage in an epic confrontation is not the Soviet Union.

When I’m in my home away from home I get the occasional question about America – there has for centuries been a fascination with us over there. The relationship is what the locals would call “ambiguous,” a word they also use to describe a tantalizing but unattainable romance.

Some ask what the weather is like. Of course, that question sounds silly. In fact, the weather here is exactly as varied as it is in China, which covers just about the same landmass as America, ranging from just about the same latitudes north and south as our homeland – only on nearly precisely the opposite side of the globe.

For you or me to ask what politics is like over there is just as silly. The province of Sichuan is just as culturally – and politically – distinct from the city of Shanghai as Louisiana is from Boston. Only the traditions of local political power and leverage among China’s provinces stretches back a thousand years before the founding of the first 13 colonies.

Bizarro America: As an American, the more you begin to understand our greatest strategic rival in generations, the more you see it is a Bizarro version of us. (Perhaps they might say we are a Bizarro China…)

Like Bizarro Superman, the character revived in our popular culture by “Seinfeld,” it has the same components yet is in many ways the opposite. Like a mirror reflection, it is the inverse. In China, you address a letter in the opposite order: country, province, city, district, street. You date the letter starting with the year. You end an essay with the introduction after meandering through the supporting points. You even tune a guitar starting with the bottom string.

The Civil War preceded our rise to become the center of the world’s economy. Believe it or not, at almost exactly the same time the South challenged the federal authority in Washington D.C. in armed combat, a peasant uprising in China’s south tried the same thing against Beijing. It was the deadliest conflict in the history of China, much like our own Civil War was here.

An alien looking down on Earth would have seen the same violent human behavior on both sides of the big blue dot, like some sort of biological response of ant colonies to magnetic poles. But, converse to our experience, the Taiping rebellion – led by a man convinced he was the second coming of Jesus Christ – helped lead to the Qing Dynasty’s fall from its perch as the largest economy in the world. It had worn that crown for at least 250 years.

A Rival to Take Seriously: Is America defined by Obama? Or the Donald for that matter? Despite the iron grip China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping now has on power, he can’t mold the patchwork of distinct cultures and peoples of his nation to his will.

The tragic flaws of his Communist policies withstanding, the withered vestiges of a grand and sophisticated Chinese empire were revived over the decades before he took power. Yes, this was fueled by investment and trade with the U.S. (Our collective memory forgets that proceeds earned trading with Chinese merchants helped bankroll our industrialization two centuries ago.)

Now, the nation with eyes on reclaiming its throne as the true Middle Kingdom – the center of the world economy – has reached a critical mass of social, technological, and military competence that cannot so easily be undone.

No, it has not reached parity with us. But China is arguably ahead of us in the development of hypersonic missiles, equipping warships with railguns, and unhackable quantum communications. The point here is that when Beijing is pushed to the brink – when its Communist, debt-driven economic house of cards collapses – it will NOT look like the Soviet Union of the mid-20th century.

The Soviet Union was built by Leninism and Stalinism on the ruins of an empire that was never very powerful. The China of today was built by infusing the fortunes of global capitalism into a country thirsting for an immense power that it held not so very long ago. When the party is over in China, and the energy of millions of out-of-work single men turns into anger, Beijing will have little choice but to direct that anger against a foreign foe.

All this is a formula for a confrontation that will be much, much worse than our rivalry with the Soviet Union. Those who say China is going to collapse tomorrow are wrong – as are those who say that we can learn to live together. Everyone is wrong about China.

Forget the Trade War Hype: This is the most politicized market in history, and the Tweeter-in-Chief is still in charge. So, the situation is changing almost by the minute. It’s “Impeachment!” in Imperial Washington and all over the Mainstream Media. It’s “Easy Money!” on Wall Street and across Bubblevision.

And it seems as if the whole world has, indeed, gone mad. Amid this chaos, prices will continue to rise and fall, trends will continue to develop and dissipate. The stakes are as high as they can be heading into 2020. Markets appear to be straining, catching up to an economy that’s been weak and getting weaker for years.

The Donald is tied up in the day-to-day movements of the major stock indexes like no president before him. The increasingly desperate incumbent will do anything he must to hold the White House. It’s a major tipping point. And there’s no telling what the Donald’s great disruptions could do.”

- http://deepstatedeclassified.com/

Source: http://coyoteprime-runningcauseicantfly.blogspot.com/2019/10/what-hath-trump-wrought.html

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