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In the past few weeks I have written two “positive” articles on the financial markets and submitted them to several websites that have historically published my work. In the case of these two articles, only one website (that I have been able to determine; I don’t check all of them) has chosen to publish. I find this fascinating. From a purely detached perspective, it’s as if editors have the bit between the teeth. “We will publish if it accords with our view of the world, or if it suits our business’ strategic positioning”.
Logic dictates that the business oriented strategic positioning of these websites is: We want to be seen by readers as a valuable resource that will facilitate either adding to or maintaining one’s net worth.
In the minds of the owners of these websites, financial “survival” – given a global economy that is under stress – will be a function of picking the right asset class in which to invest, or trade, as the case may be. Thus, when one draws attention to the elephant in the room – declining global energy output per capita – the reaction seems to be: “so tell our readers how they can make a buck out of this”.
After my little experiment over the past few weeks, here is my conclusion: “We (the publishers) are not prepared to embrace either terminal pessimism or optimism. Our raison d’etre is to facilitate the making of money. It is not to facilitate the stabilisation of the world’s economy and we think that optimism in today’s environment is ridiculous.”
But here’s the fascinating thing. Here’s the real reason I wrote those two articles:
It happens that my reading of the charts shows – genuinely – that there seems to be a receding of fear on the part of investors. I am not passing judgement on whether this “emerging optimism” is justified or not; or whether it is likely to be long lived. I am merely reporting on it. Now, either I have lost my credibility, or there is something very sinister happening out in the market place. Of course, the publishers will rationalise the former. That goes without saying. But I think what is really happening is that a kind of desperation is creeping into the investment world. Some people are lunging to grab onto anything that may be construed as positive, whilst others are setting their pessimistic views in concrete – but at a level of pessimism that is consistent with their thought paradigms. i.e. The pessimists are “locked in” to thought paradigms that they find comfortable; regardless of any facts to the contrary.
And for similar reasons (of wilfully ignoring facts that don’t suit their agendas), the reality seems to me that society’s leaders (politicians, media, investment managers, bankers, captains of industry) appear to have taken a seriously wrong turn. They are opting to embrace an energy paradigm that will be hugely counterproductive – as can be seen when reading between the lines of the article below that appeared in today’s London Telegraph
There seems to be a subtle disingenuousness creeping into discussions on the world’s oil resources – which is mirroring this “wilfullness” that I am picking up in the web publishing community.
The following is a quote from the above article:
“The UK industry taskforce on peak oil fears the crunch will hit at 95m bpd within a decade.”
In my understanding, peak oil is defined as the point at which the rate of world consumption of existing resources exceeded the rate of world discovery of new resources – leading to a peak in world oil resources. In my understanding, this occurred in the late 1970s. The chart below, produced by Reg Morrison, shows that this happened prior to 1970. The exact year doesn’t really matter. In terms of this definition the world passed peak oil decades ago.
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In recent public discussions, the definition of peak oil seems to have changed to become the point at which annual oil production peaks. (see red line above). If my reading of this is correct then embracing this mindset is an extremely dangerous turn of events – because annual use of oil resources will be accelerating as a percentage of total oil resources – leading to a sudden collapse in availability.
To cope with this outcome, the oil companies are suddenly scrambling to invest in natural gas mining and distribution infrastructure. The problem is that the authorities are willfully ignoring the fact that if natural (fracked) gas escapes into the environment it can be extremely (terminally) deleterious, and they seem to be blocking out from their minds the “fact” that the risk of escape is unacceptably high.
Mainstream society is also not facing up to the fact that there is likely to be a double whammy consequence of accelerating greenhouse gas concentration and groundwater contamination. Those reactions are being regarded as hysterical by the media, the authorities and the energy companies alike.
From another perspective, the building negativity towards nuclear is seriously counterproductive. It’s as if we are prepared to risk all life on the planet as a means of guarding against the risk of protecting a 50km radius around any particular nuclear plant. That attitude is insane, pure and simple. There is no other word to describe it.
Whilst I have no emotional brief for nuclear fission as a source of energy, it is, objectively, the only practical energy paradigm that will facilitate an alternative baseline energy and, at the same time, not contribute to an exacerbation of climate change. In my novel, The Last Finesse, I take a level headed look at the pros and cons of nuclear fission energy and how we might reorganize the way in which we manage this industry so as to minimize risks. I also make a suggestion as to how the US public debt issue might be addressed without having to resort to either hyperinflation or debt write-off. Curiously, the influencers of public opinion appear to have no interest in solutions or survival. Their interest is in maximizing returns on investment or accumulating personal power. As the King of Siam once put it: “Is a puzzlement”.
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