Karl Denninger: Beware, Extreme Volatility Alert
WHITE HOUSE SAYS AGREEMENT ON $1.5 TRILLION IN CUTS: FLY FLYONTHEWALL.COM CITED DOW JONES ON WHITE HOUSE DEBT AGREEMENT
Thers’s a huge problem problem here if this is crap – and it looks like the market is believing it might be. I’m listening to the WH presser right now and there’s nothing concrete coming out of the Carney Barker’s mouth at the podium – nor are there particularly-intelligent questions coming from the press pool either (howdo you get into that pool with an IQ that appears to be smaller than my shoe size?)
When this rumor hit the wire we were into a very ugly decline on really awful internals that were deteriorating rapidly. The low tick storm had been going on for the better part of an hour, and there comes a point where the algos (which I was writing about earlier) just throw in the towel and disappear – the result is a bid collapse and “whoosh”, which has this habit of producing the sort of -400 DOW days that we saw in 2008.
If this is a crap rumor that was run to try to stop that, it’s “use by” time is going to expire fast. Worse, if there’s nothing behind it and the market figures that out the next time someone tries it in short succession the result will be a monster sell-off instead of a rescue.
Expect extreme volatility the next few days, and with Option Expiration if they’re going to try something else, tomorrow morning in front of the open would be the optimum time. Those who have followed me for a while know that I (and a lot of other people) got cornholed in August of 2007 by exactly this sort of “surprise”, and I fully expect the criminals in DC to try something like that again.
If you are positioned either way in the market right now be extremely careful - the odds of utter and complete garbage coming out of random White House and Capitol orifices is very, very high, and irrespective of which way you may have bets open you’re at risk of getting nailed.
The Constitutional American
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Whistler Blowers, Insiders
The debt ceiling story reminds me of one of those movies from the 50′s. There is 2 young men in each of their cars playing chicken to see who will jump out first before they run out of road and run over the cliff.
In this real life story, unlike the movie plot, neither is going to jump out and they both are going over and taking the whole country with them. There never was a movie plot when neither one jumped out at the last second.
There is very little road left now considering the time it takes to pass a bill so my bet is a crash.