Can Democrats Reclaim Control of Senate?
The 2008 elections were a huge win for the Democratic Party. President Barack Obama led the way in a landslide win over the Republican Party. Obama and the Democrats took control of the Senate and the House of Representatives for the first time since 1995.
In 2010, the Republican voters came out in full force and took over control of the House of Representatives, and almost overtook the Senate, drawing to a 51 to 47 split with 2 additional independent Senators.
Without many of the flashy headliner names, the 2014 election is being touted by many as the “least important” election in years. But that is hardly the case. Senate majority in the 114th Congress will determine how much leverage Obama has in his final two years as President, and the Republicans are fighting to take control of both Congressional chambers.
Traditionally, Republicans own the midterm years, and several political forecasters are predicting that November of 2014 will be no different. In fact, Nate Silver’s Senate Forecast on 538.com predicts that the GOP will surpass the Democrats by a slim margin.
Midterm elections often are determined by the current president’s approval rating and his ties to the party. Obama’s approval ratings have never been lower, and that’s not a good sign for Democrats. There’s another threat to the Democrats: the battle isn’t being fought in neutral territory. When you add up all of the states with open Senate seats on the ballot, they combined to give Obama 46 percent of the vote in 2012. If that’s any barometer for the 2014 Senate race, Obama’s approval rating has dropped another 16 percent since 2012.
While the Republicans probably won’t see the same turnout they did four years ago, many forecasters think they have a great shot at taking control of the Senate majority.
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