Will Hillary Go Down In Flames, Again, In 2016? Who's The Democrat Forerunner? (Picture, Video)

ut yourself in the shoes of your friend who doesn’t have the time or the interest to follow politics until just before the election. You get a call from a pollster who asks you if you support Elizabeth Warren, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, or Jim Webb. The only one you ever heard of was Hillary Clinton. Odds are at this stage you are going to say you support Hillary Clinton. After all, you are a Democrat, and you have no idea who the others are. Name recognition helps in the early polls, but as the campaign goes forward and the other candidates introduce themselves to the American people, it becomes less and less important.

Hillary Clinton was out in front in 2007 before the campaign kicked into gear. It wasn’t as big a lead but the opposition was better known. Obama had given the keynote address at the Democratic Convention in 2004, and John Edwards ran for president in the previous election, so voters knew he was.

As late as October everything pointed to a Clinton victory: “Gallup’s 2007 national presidential polling strongly points to Clinton winning the 2008 Democratic nomination. Barring something unusual or otherwise unexpected, she is well positioned for the 2008 Democratic primaries.”

With April 2015 approaching, no candidates have declared on the Democratic side. In 2007, Hillary declared in January, and this is how the race was viewed by the Washington Post on the day she launched:

Clinton begins the long campaign as the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination, according to a nationwide Washington Post-ABC News poll completed Friday night. The poll showed her the favorite of 41 percent of Democrats, giving her more than double the support of any of her potential rivals.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who established his exploratory committee last week, has generated enormous interest and attention, putting the Clinton camp on notice. The poll put him in second place among Democrats at 17 percent, but his support has not increased over the past month as he has moved toward a formal candidacy. MOREHERE