CNN/ORC Poll: Trump at 30%; Carson at 19%; and then there are the other guys

Via CNN:

Trump gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support, and has nearly tripled his support since just after he launched his campaign in June. The new poll finds former neurosurgeon Ben Carson rising 10 points to land in second place with 19%. Together, these two non-politicians now hold the support of a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and separately, both are significantly ahead of all other competitors.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush stands in third place with 9%, down 4 points since August, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100% holds fourth place with 7%. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker follow at 5%, with all other candidates at 3% or less, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 92%, who notched the only other statistically significant shift in the poll by falling 5 points since August.

Interesting Takeaways:

More women than men support Trump:

Trump’s gains come most notably among two groups that had proven challenging for him in the early stages of his campaign — women and those with college degrees. While he gained just 4 points among men in the last month (from 27% in August to 31% now), he’s up 13 points among women, rising from 20% in August to 33% now.

Self-identified Tea Party members are moving to Trump:

Trump’s gains come most notably among two groups that had proven challenging for him in the early stages of his campaign — women and those with college degrees. While he gained just 4 points among men in the last month (from 27% in August to 31% now), he’s up 13 points among women, rising from 20% in August to 33% now.

Trump reaches 50% with second choice votes factored in.

This is very significant because previous polls that have asked this question have shown Trump at <10% as a second choice indicating that his support had maxed out. This poll shows that far from shrinking, Trump’s base of support is growing.

Trump and Carson lead in voter enthusiasm

What is interesting here is that Jeb Bush’s “un-enthusiasm” number is huge.

Enthusiastic Trump and Carson voters are wealthier and better educated.

Once you get into the sub-samples, the data is sketchy but according to his poll the most enthusiastic groups for Trump and Carson are college-educated voters making over $50,000/year.

Summary

At this stage, Trump and Carson are the only candidates with an upward trajectory. Instead of early supporters of Walker, Perry, and Bush flowing to other traditional candidates that support seems to be heading towards the non-politicians in the field. Trump has made huge gains in women supporters. Carson’s gain, though he’s still in second place, has been huge.

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