Polls, Candidates and The 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination

Another set of polls is in and several months before any real votes are counted, we have data anyway. The Inner Stat Nerd needs no cause or gravamen. Just chuck him some data and he’ll run it through the wood-chipper, blog an analysis and see who it royally tees off. We begin with the Standings as reported by RCP.

So there it is in its anti-social, nerdy glory. I’m looking at this and seeing four individuals who had good weeks, two of whom will probably be with us for a while. Mr. Trump, Mr. Carson, Mrs. Fiorina and Gov. Kasich all came out of the scrum better than they went in. I’m struck by the fact that only one (Gov. Kasich) out of the four bears an honorific in front of his name indicative of a political title. In fact, summing the votes for Trump, Carson and Fiorina gives you almost 42% of GOP voters expressing a preference for a GOP non-office holder. Gov. Kasich benefits be being the Mod-Lib alternative to Jeb Bush.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100%, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 92%, and Gov. Huckabee survived without taking damage. All three are riding out the initial surge towards unknown flavors and unconventional candidates. Kudos goes to each for finding a way to swim against the current with a knife in their teeth. Of the three, Gov. Huckabee is in the least enviable position, because he is on the outside looking in at the next GOP debate if this set of averages matches a “Top 8” selection criteria.

Next we get to the people who got lit up the way The New York Yankees just immolated the Atlanta Braves pitching staff this weekend. Jeb, of course, took it the worst. He is the Candidate to The Manor Born and everyone hates a legacy. He’s also losing some of his big money donors. You can’t serve two masters and they’re choosing Hillary. Perhaps you don’t want Lehman Brothers on your resume after all.

I’m personally saddened to report Scott Walker isn’t getting it done. I’m feeling the same feeling big time Rick Perry fans felt in 2012. It’s not quite Alas, Babylon. There are some others I like and respect, but still. Just dammit.

The next group of six candidates is running out of Nitrox and can’t break surface in time. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) 87%, Governor Jindal and Governor Perry are significant losses. I’m not sure I’d pick any of the three, but I’d appreciate it if their ideas were at least articulated and debated. Too bad that’s their job and not mine. If they don’t prove they belong in this field, the sharks will eat the minnows. And all three of them will be minnows.

If the losses of Paul, Jindal and Perry are all sad in their own way, the losses of Pataki, Santorum and Christie wouldn’t even prompt me to try very hard at finding them. Pataki somehow managed to be mentioned as opposed to Jim Gilmore and Lindsay Graham. Rick Santorum has been revealed to be a very unpleasant man*, and he is at the end of his viable political career. Chris Christie will not be advancing past “GO” and collecting $200.

The next fun thing to watch will be who runs out of altitude, airspeed and ideas first. Quite a few of these people near the bottom will have to eject soon. Out of the bottom six, I only see Rick Perry or Rand Paul hanging on past Halloween. Mike Huckabee and Scott Walker have high expectations regarding Iowa. They won’t quit until they see the numbers from Caucus Day. Kasich and Jeb Bush have the same set of designs on New Hampshire. Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush are banking too heavily on Florida. One will walk out disappointed. Ted Cruz expects to have his best shot on Super Tuesday. Fiorina, Carson and Trump are enjoying the ride, Trump and Fiorina have the cash to push it further than Ben Carson. Carson has to win on his own merits. Trump and Fiorina are perhaps fortunate not to face that difficulty.

*-Wish I had known that in 2012, before I made a fool of myself by endorsing the man.

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