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Aleppo ★ Siria 31.10.2015

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Syria SITREP October 31st, 2015 by John Rambo | The Vineyard of the Saker

• Pro-government Syrian forces are making gains slowly in areas of operation. The strategy has revealed itself as a slow encroachment on rebel positions. Every area captured by the government is locked down and reinforced until the next assault.

• Assault, capture, hold, reinforce, repeat.

• This war has seen its fair share of booby traps and other dirty tricks. Syrian forces have had to deal with mines and IEDs in recaptured territory. Possibly as a rebel/ISIL tactic to slow down Syrian assaults while retreating. Syrian military has also dished out its fair share of sabotage ammunition to opposition groups. [Source]

• Although very costly and time consuming, sabotage/spiked ammunition does add a huge psychological factor in deterring insurgencies and organized resistance. Opposition units will begin to distrust their supplies reducing morale. Should a sabotage round be cooked off it could disable the weapon or more effectively outright kill the operator. [Source]

• The SAA has allowed avenues of escape to remain open for Islamist fighters. This is to prevent any “last-stands” by the near-suicidal and desperate Islamists.

• There was talk about Assad committing to preliminary elections; probably the fallout of the meeting in Moscow (more below). [Source]

• The government has had issues securing supply lines since the onset of the war. These issues have always plagued offensives which need a consistent influx of supplies to maintain the momentum.

• The government has established checkpoints to monitor the roads and to deploy rapid reaction teams to assist convoys under attack.

• However the manpower shortage does mean some checkpoints won’t be as reinforced as others.

• A strategic depopulation of Syria has been underway for some time, resulting in the EU refugee crisis. May also be called human capital flight. By having Germany say it’ll take in as many refugees as it can and by encouraging the conflict to continue more and more of the moderate educated Syrians will leave Syria and the refugee camps of Turkey and Jordan for a better life in Europe and the US [Source]

Iraq:

• Co-ordination with Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah has allowed the Iraqi army to continue rooting out ISIL and other supporting militias from Baiji.

• The Iraqi army is being supported by the Popular Committee militias.

• The Popular Committee militias are a predominately Shia organization which houses a multitude of tribal or independent Shia militias in Iraq.

• The Mahdi army, a once disbanded militia which had succeeded in fighting US occupational forces in the past, has been remobilized to help deal with ISIL. [Source]

• These militias were a real issue for both the US occupational forces and the new Iraqi military during that time [Source]

• The Mahdi army is one of the few militias outside Palestine to experience Israeli-like tactics of population control blockades and sieges in the hopes of destroying its power base (siege of Sadr city) [Source]

• Since the fall of Saddam the Iraqi army has gained some experience fighting against the Shia-militias in an operation to disarm them. [Source]

Iran/Hezbollah:

• Some slightly increased causalities of IRGC personnel reflect the increased involvement over the past week.

• Iran continues to flex its military capabilities and more importantly its independent military-industrial complex hardened over decades of sanctions. [Source]

• Iran has consistently had some kind of force operating in Iraq against ISIL and even forces that were once operating against US forces including the infamous Karbala HQ attack carried supported by the Quds Force [Source]

• The attackers were dressed in US military gear and managed to slip by security. The entire operation was retaliation against US raids targeted towards Iranian diplomatic missions inside Iraq. [Source]

• The increased presence in Syria will reflect how well Iran can commit in deploying combat ground forces on two fronts (albeit in small elite numbers).

• IRGC forces are more eager and motivated, some men being trained for over a year for the mission in Syria which includes a heavy dose of urban warfare tactics. [Source]

• Iran not only has Russia as a potential ally but both India and China have helped it stay afloat through its many years of sanctions. China has always been a customer of Iranian oil and natural gas and India at one point was paying Iran in gold to circumvent international sanctions aimed at Iran [Source]

• It’s only a matter of time now before Iran officially joins the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) of which China and Russia (along with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan) are founding members. The SCO is a semi-NATO-like organization which extends to economic and political cohesion as well as military collaboration [Source]

• Iran has finally been included in talks regarding the Syrian conflict, along with Turkey, Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia. [Source]

• Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, has made a public speech at the end of the Ashura procession in person. For those that do not know: this man is very high up on Israel’s hit list. Most definitely top 5. When he used to make speeches in the past he would have to do it behind bulletproof glass. Today his speeches are digital and more frequent (unfortunately bulletproof is not air-strike bomb proof). [Source]

US Planes Target Meeting of ISIL Leader Al-Baghdadi’s Opponents

The US fighter jets pounded the gathering of a group of ISIL leaders who sought to break allegiance with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the terrorist group’s main ringleader, a move many pundits and experts call surprising while others call suspicious.

27 ISIL field commanders who had expressed increasing differences with al-Baghdadi during the past few months had gathered in ISIL’s No. 11 Command Center in Raqqa, Northern Syria, a few days ago to consult on breaking their allegiance with the ISIL ringleader but were all killed in a bomb attack the US fighters jets.

The only survivor was on the run to Sad al-Ba’ath fortification, but he was also hunted by the US fighter jets.

The bomb raid on ISIL’s dissident commanders has surprised many as the move reinvigorates Baghdadi’s position in the terrorist organization by weakening opponents.

The US which is pounding some parts of Iraq and Syria under the pretext of fighting against the ISIL has been reportedly helping the terrorist group by intelligence and logistics aid.

A senior Iraqi intelligence official revealed in August that the US helicopters dropped weapons and other aids for the ISIL terrorists in the Western province of al-Anbar.

“The fighters present at the forefront of fighting against the ISIL always see US helicopters flying over the ISIL-controlled areas and dropping weapons and urgent aids for them,” the official who called for anonymity told FNA.

He added that in addition to dropping aids, the helicopters transfer the ISIL ringleaders and wounded members from the battleground to some hospitals in Syria or other countries which support the terrorist group.

The official cautioned that such assistance further prolongs the conflicts in Anbar, adding that when the Iraqi army and popular forces purge the terrorists from Anbar province, the US helicopters will transfer the ISIL ringleaders to other regions to prevent the Iraqi forces’ access to ISIL secrets.

In a relevant development in March, a group of Iraqi popular forces known as Al-Hashad Al-Shabi shot down the US Army helicopter that was carrying weapons for the ISIL in the Western parts of Al-Baqdadi region in Al-Anbar province.

Also in February, a senior lawmaker disclosed that Iraq’s army had shot down two British planes as they were carrying weapons for the ISIL terrorists in Al-Anbar province.

“The Iraqi Parliament’s National Security and Defense Committee has access to the photos of both planes that are British and have crashed while they were carrying weapons for the ISIL,” al-Zameli said.

Iraqi Forces Hunting ISIL Terrorists with Kornet Anti-Tank Missiles

The Iraqi volunteer forces (Hashd al-Shaabi) hit a gathering of ISIL militants in the outskirts of the city of Samarra with Russian-made anti-tank Kornet missiles, killing a large number of the Takfiri terrorists.

Tens of ISIL terrorists were killed and dozens more were injured in the volunteer forces’ attack on their strongholds in the Western outskirts of Samarra.

The ISIL militants have been trying to open their way into Samarra from the Western parts of the city over the past week, but the Iraqi forces have so far managed to repel their attack.

On Saturday, the Iraqi field sources ensured that ISIL’s heavy attacks on the Western parts of Samarra had been pushed back and no threat was endangering the Shiite holy sites located in the region.

“The Western parts of Samarra are under the control of the Iraqi volunteer forces (Hash al-Shaabi) and the holy Shrines of the 10th and 11th Shiite imams are safe,” an Iraqi military source told FNA.

He said that over 50 ISIL terrorists in 17 bomb-laden vehicles tried to penetrate into the Western parts of Samarra, but they were pushed back by Hash al-Shaabi forces and exploded.

“The terrorists intended to impair the volunteer forces’ line of defense in the Northern parts of Salahuddin and Al-Anbar provinces after they sustained heavy defeats in Al-Anbar deserts,” the source said.

He further blasted the Untied States’ negative role and its supports for the terrorists in the region, complaining that the US-led anti-ISIL coalition forces prevent Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi forces from purging the ISIL terrorists from different regions of Al-Anbar.

On Thursday, the Iraqi forces managed to purge ISIL terrorists from strategic areas in the countryside of Samarra city.

The ISIL terrorists were purged from a chemical factory in Southwestern Samarra and Samarra-Tharthar road after inflicting heavy losses in clashes with the Iraqi troops.

The Iraqi forces took control of al-Mosana chemical factory in the Southwestern parts of Samarra.

The Iraqi troops also seized back Samarra-Tharthar road in fierce clashes with the terrorists.

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