ISIS update 11/11\2015.. Islamic State is set to fizzle out

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The Middle East Wars: Islamic State SITREP | The Vineyard of the Saker

by John Rambo

The Islamic State:

ISIL needs to be defined before a report on their situation can be given. So after this I can just focus on the tactical, operational, and strategic impacts of the Islamic State instead of who and what controls it.

How far does the Islamic State spread?

South Front Analysis and Intelligence has the most accurate idea of ISIL in terms of territorial control.

Thin corridors through territories along towns, villages and roads bordering deserts and oases. Large parts of the Islamic State is disconnected. Branches outside the core of Syria and Iraq are either factions that have pledged loyalty to the Islamic State or are subsidiary branches opened up by ISIL and are recruiting from whomever, generally by sapping local Islamists factions. ISIL does enjoy a level of popularity higher than Al-Qaeda. [Source]

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1756985

For you see right now ISIL is the new Al-Qaeda to jihadist-wannabes except bigger-er and better-er. Al-Qaeda had to hide in caves in Afghanistan and compounds in Pakistan. ISIL is out in the opening, beheading and raping whenever and wherever without second thoughts.

ISIL sympathizers may exist in large numbers in Turkey, potentially Europe, and definitely in some parts of the GCC. Their actual strength and capabilities is yet to be known.

Recruiting in the Arab world isn’t hard. Many boys and young men remember the humiliating defeats suffered by their fathers and grandfathers in Palestine, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya…… all at the hands of foreigners. Israel is the pinnacle of this shame, foreigners who have forced themselves in the heart of the Middle East and have kept it with force. The world looked on unwilling (or unable) to remedy the problems that continue to spread from this core issue.

It’s not hard to quantify ISILs popularity in such an environment. Official Arab states, including Assad’s Syria, do nothing but offer lip service whenever Israel attacks. Israel had destroyed a suspected Syrian nuclear facility in 2007 and the only reaction to come from the Syrian government is the standard “we will reserve the right to retaliate when and where we choose for this incident”. [Source][Source]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orchard

http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?fromval=3&cid=21&frid=23&seccatid=20&eid=92469

Compare that to when the IRGC suffered a loss at the hand of the Israeli Air Force in Syria. Hezbollah took action by ambushing an IDF patrol. The difference in response is not lost on the young boys of the Middle East. If Hezbollah wasn’t a Shia organization it would probably be over flooded with recruits from all over the Arab world. Hezbollahs success against Israel irks Saudi Arabia who, with their vast wealth, have been unable to achieve any goals and objectives against Israel (save the Arab oil embargoes of the past which was still used timidly at best). [Source]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2015_Shebaa_farms_incident

Now imagine how many boys throughout the Middle East saw the rapid victories of ISIL and hopped on the bandwagon to martyrdom…I mean victory. For them this might be the only legitimate ticket to a “liberated” Middle East……………………much more here

……………………….The Islamic State is set to fizzle out unless their top leadership finds a way to shift the situation again. The Russian involvement, the shift in US strategy, the Iraqi and Syrian ground victories have all taken tolls on the ISIL.

Foreign fighters have decreased both in numbers on the ground and in fresh recruits. Two world powers are already involved against the Islamic State. Support from the GCC has slowed down considerably (perhaps a few emirs are still covertly supporting parts of the organization). Stockpiles are being destroyed or used up in fighting with little to no hope of replenishment save the black markets. Financial sources are being destroyed or recaptured (Baiji and the oil refineries). Strategic areas and city centers are slowly being reclaimed by governments.

If the Islamic State can make a comeback from this entire episode than it’s safe to assume that an external force is assisting them with a lot more than just recruitment and financing. Until then only time will tell who is (was) behind the Islamic State.

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