The drop in Oil Prices upsets the Geopolitical Chessboard

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The drop in oil prices has given the lie to the «Hubbert peak» theory. There will probably not be a penury of energy in the coming century. The price decrease is also probably the first step in dismantling the «human origin of global warming» theory. It has deprived the alternative sources of energy of any validity, as well as investments in hydrocarbons from shale and deep-water drilling. It has thoroughly shaken the geopolitical scene, and is likely to be responsible for calling the US military back from the Near East and forcing the Pentagon to definitively abandon the theory of «constructive chaos». Over the last two years, the world market for energy sources has been overturned. First of all, the offer and the demand have changed considerably, followed by the transformation of the commercial flow, and finally the prices, which have collapsed. These radical changes challenge all the geopolitical principles of the oil market. The myth of penury The economic slowdown of the Western countries, and also that of certain developing countries, has resulted in a fall in demand, while continued growth in Asia has, on the contrary, led to its rise. Ultimately, global demand continues to develop at a slow rate. From the supply side, not only have none of the oil-producing states seen their capacities collapse, but some of them have been able to expand, like China, which is now accumulating important strategic reserves. As a result, the world market is heavily over-supplied. This first observation contradicts what used to be the common belief of the scientific and professional milieux during the first decade of the 21st century – world production was approaching its peak, and the world was going to experience a period of penury during which certain states were going to collapse, and wars for resources were going to break out. As soon as he returned to the White House in January 2001, Vice-President Dick Cheney formed a work group to plan the development of a national energy policy (National Energy Policy Development — NEPD), which was qualified as a «secret society» by the Washington Post [1]. In an ultra-protected atmosphere, the President’s advisors auditioned the heads of the main businesses in the sector, a number of celebrated scientists, and the heads of the Intelligence apparatus. They arrived at the conclusion that the clock was ticking, and that there was no time to waste – consequently the Pentagon would have to guarantee the survival of the US economy by grabbing the resources of the «wider Middle East». It is not known for certain who participated in this work group, what data they were working with, or what were the stages of their deliberations. All the internal documents were destroyed so that no-one could discover the statistics to which they had access. This is the group that advised the waging of war on Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia and the Sudan – a programme that was officially adopted by President George W. Bush during a meeting on the 15 September 2001, at Camp David. I remember having met, during an AFPO assembly in Lisbon, the General Secretary of the White House work group. He presented a report on the study of known reserves, the imminence of «Hubbert’s peak» and the measures which had to be taken to limit US energy consumption. At that time, I was convinced – mistakenly – by his reasoning and his assurance. With time, however, we realised that his analysis was completely false, and that the first five wars on his list (against Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya and Syria) had, from this point of view, been entirely useless, even though the programme continues today. This huge error in perspective should not surprise us. It is the consequence of «groupthink». Within a group, an idea can progressively impose itself to the point where no-one dares to question it for fear of being excluded from the «circle of reason». It’s «intellectual orthodoxy». In this case, the White House advisors started off with, and stayed rooted in, the Malthusian theory which dominated Anglican culture in the 19th century. According to this theory, the population increases exponentially, while resources only increase arithmetically. In the end, there will not be enough resources for everyone. Thomas Malthus’ intention was to oppose Adam Smith’s theory, according to which, when it is free from all regulation, the market will regulate itself. In reality, pastor Malthus found in his own theory – which has never yet been demonstrated – the justification of his refusal to help the innumerable poor in his parish. What is the point of feeding these people, if tomorrow, their many children will starve to death? The government of George W. Bush was mostly WASP, and included many people from the oil industry, starting with Vice-President Cheney, the ex-chief of the manufacturing firm Halliburton. Although oil is a non-renewable resource and will therefore one day come to an end, nothing proves that the end is near. In 2001, we were thinking in terms of oil of the Saudi type, which we knew how to refine. At that time, we did not believe that the reserves of Venezuela, for example, were exploitable, while we know today that they are sufficient to supply all of the world’s needs for at least a century. We note that the «human origin of global warming» theory is probably no more accurate than that of […]

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