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FiveThirtyEight Has Some Really Bad News for Trump and the GOP

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 8:21
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Who will win the presidency? FiveThirtyEight has a pretty good idea.

According to statistical wizard, Hillary has a 75% chance of winning the Presidency, vs. Trump who only gets 25%.


FiveThirtyEight says that Clinton will likely win with 93 more electoral votes than Trump, and with less than 5% of the popular vote. Interestingly enough, Johnson will come in with 7.2% of the popular vote, up from 7.1% the last time the site took a look at the numbers.


While this puts Johnson in a no-win situation, finishing above 7% qualifies the Libertarian party for federal campaign funding in 2020, which will go far into bringing this third party more into the spotlight, should those who fled the GOP and Democrat party continue their political journey as independents.

It should be noted that Nate Silver, and FiveThirtyEight have a pretty good track record in terms of predicting how races will go. That’s not to say that they border on precognitive. They get things wrong sometimes, and gladly admit when they do. Still, FiveThirtyEight isn’t exactly known for missing their mark.

And in this case, if Silver is correct, then Trump’s campaign is a proverbial dead man walking. While many things can occur that will adversely affect the Clinton campaign, by the way the electoral map is looking, it will be a steep hill for Trump to climb to get into the White House.


A 75% chance of winning is a very wide margin as far as chances go, and even those betting on the election feel it necessary to put their money on the Clinton campaign coming out ahead. If Trump wants to change any of this, he’s going to have to pull out some stellar performances off and on the debate stage in the next month.

Though I seriously doubt that will happen.

The post FiveThirtyEight Has Some Really Bad News for Trump and the GOP appeared first on RedState.


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