Group of Statisticians, Actuaries Reveals Trump Landslide in the Making
A lesson in the manipulation of poll results
A group of statisticians and actuaries compiled data from previous polls to show how just how unreliable polls can be. They took data from a recent Fox poll from Oct. 14 that showed Clinton ahead of Trump by seven points and a WSJ/NBC poll from Oct. 16 that showed Clinton with an 11-point lead.
The statisticians first noted that both of these polls were “heavily skewed” toward Democrats. The Fox sample group consisted of 43 percent Democrats to 36 Republicans to 21 “other,” and the NBC poll showed 44 percent Democrats to 37 Republicans to 19 “other.”
Simply put, by selecting more Democrats to participate in the polls, they are tailored to favor a Democrat result.
When the actuaries calculated results using the same data from the same surveys with an even split of 40 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 20 “other,” they got a different result, which put Trump in the lead.
The statisticians also looked at past polls from 1980 and 1988, where Democrats were favored to win but ended up losing. In 1980, Jimmy Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan 47 to 39. Reagan ended up winning the election in a landslide. In 1998, Michael Dukakis was ahead of George H. W. Bush by 17 points, and Bush ended up winning the election easily.
This election season has been unlike any other in recent years, and independent voters, as well as undecided voters, remain difficult to predict. Supporters for Sen. Bernie Sanders could very well vote for Trump, which could result in a landslide victory for Trump.
But leave it to Democrats to try to project a winner through the manipulation of polls. Liberals skewing polls to push their agenda isn’t new or surprising. In fact, in light of how it appears they rig elections, it would be shocking if they didn’t tamper with poll data.
Democrats have become the party of criminals, and their leader doesn’t belong in the White House.
H/T teaparty.org
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