Scientists predicted nuclear disaster in Eastern Europe

    Alliance of Social Environmental Associations Polish Green Network published a full version of its ‘Reassessing the safety of nuclear power‘ report made by experts at ETH Zurich and University of Sussex. The report names most probable locations for a vast radiation accident.

    Nuclear power experts believe that next nuclear disaster will happen in the center of Eastern Europe, namely Ukraine.
    Future frequency and severity of accidents are perhaps unacceptably high. While the nuclear industry can be characterized by an impressive improvement in incident prevention and safety procedures, our thorough analysis of this new data shows that, when a nuclear event of at least $20 million in damage occurs, the probability that it transforms into a catastrophe with damage larger than one billion dollars is almost ten percent. Under the status quo, we project at least one Fukushima-scale dragon king (or larger (Chernobyl – editor’s note)) accident with 50% probability every 60–150 years. The analysis of data submitted by the states that provide the INES as well as of their official Media reports about the events and equipment condition at nuclear power plants shows that another major accident will most probably occur at a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. For example, there is an 80% probability that a Three Mile Island event (or more costly) can occur at Ukraine’s Rivne or South-Ukraine nuclear power plants over the next 5 years. And, more common but still expensive events of about $20 million will occur with a frequency of about one per year-making accidents a relatively routine part of nuclear power’s future.

    The authors of the report came to a conclusion that such submarginal situation in nuclear power industry is a result of lack of control over accounting minor abnormalities and incidents at NPPs, as well as deliberate non-disclosure of information in contempt of global nuclear safety requirements.

    Existing databases are woefully incomplete when it comes to the reporting of nuclear incidents and accidents. For instance, only half of the events in our database have INES scores, and thousands upon thousands of small events – but with the potential to cascade into larger ones – remain unreported. As the authors of ‘An Account of Events in Nuclear Power Plants Since the Chernobyl Accident in 1986′ concluded, “many nuclear safety related events occur year after year, all over the world, in all types of nuclear plants and in all reactor designs and that there are very serious events that go either entirely unnoticed by the broader public or remain significantly under-evaluated when it comes to their potential risk.” In Ukraine, for example, most nuclear energy accidents and incidents have not been included in databases over the past several years, although state Media confirmed their occurrence.