Your RedState Electoral College Update for October 10, 2016

We might be at a turning point in this race. Over the weekend, dozens of prominent Republicans pulled away from Donald Trump. Not just the usual #NeverTrump gang, but Trump endorsers. Even the Republican National Committee stopped spending money on his candidacy.

How far does he have to fall?

Last week Trump had a narrow path to victory, but he did have one. This week though, as we approach a series of polls that include results to his sexual groping video, he’s starting off even further behind:

As in the map above, we see Republican has lost several states to Hillary Clinton from a week ago. Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina, and Ohio are lost to Trump, while he gained no states she held. This gives Clinton a 340-198 lead in the Electoral College.

Even flipping Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio would not be enough to win this for the GOP. On top of those, adding Colorado would make it a tie. A tie would likely be won by the Republican nominee.

So once again we’re back to that: Trump virtually has to run the table of swing states: keep the ones he has, and win back almost everything Clinton is leading in.

I’m not saying the race is over if Trump loses even more states this week, as people react to his “grabbing” remarks. But there’s only a few weeks left in this race, and it’s hard to imagine there’s much left that the voting public doesn’t know about Hillary Clinton to act as an October Surprise the other way!

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