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ALMOST OVER: RedState Electoral College update for November 7, 2016

Monday, November 7, 2016 2:53
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This is it. Tomorrow we finish voting, and the whole thing is likely over. The Presidential Election has been a long ride this cycle, giving us a year and a half of misery.

However if Donald Trump can’t turn it around, I suspect he’s going to be miserable for a long time to come.


A bunch of states have flipped back and forth in the last few weeks. The net result has Trump ahead in close states. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton in three of the four closest states, those with leads of 2 or less (NC, NH, NV), with Clinton ahead in Florida. That’s a lot of coin flips in his favor.

But despite being slightly ahead in many close states, Trump is still behind 297-241. That’s not winning. That’s losing, and hoping the polls are wrong. That’s failing to catch up even when Clinton had a week of bad email headlines.



If we exclude the RealClearPolitics toss-up battleground, Clinton starts with a base lead of 216-164. Clinton needs 54 electoral votes of the remaining 158. Trump needs 106 of those 158. That means Trump has to have most of the close states fall his way.

Clinton can get 54 votes among the battleground simply by winning Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Colorado (9), then either Florida (29), North Carolina (15), or Ohio (18). In fact with Florida she doesn’t need Colorado.

Unless the polls are badly wrong (and they can be), Trump needs an improbable series of events to happen in close states, despite being notorious for having a very poor “ground game” in key states like Pennsylvania and Nevada.

Trump has been getting many Republican leaners to “come home” as Gary Johnson’s polling has crashed. But it doesn’t appear to be enough.

If Trump wins tomorrow, it’s the greatest defeat for polling since Truman defeated Dewey.

The post ALMOST OVER: RedState Electoral College update for November 7, 2016 appeared first on RedState.


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Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

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  • Daughter of the Church

    If Clinton is declared a winner she will become the third ANTI-PRESIDENT of the United States of America in a row.

    “Anti-President”, because she would have illegitimately been “elected” through a rigged system, and also because she is not fit to hold any public office.

    “Third” anti-President is a row, since anti-President Bush II stole the election to legitimate candidate VP Al Gore, and since anti-President Obama has never been able to prove his US citizenship, either from a birth certificate, or live witnesses of his birth, nor through a naturalization document since he had been enrolled as a foreign student.

    Note: An anti-President is a usurper President, who while hiding his or her illegitimacy will act contrarily to the interests of the nation.

    The USA has joined the club of being misguided by anti-leaders for some time now. Bush I might have been born in Germany…
    As a reminder the Roman Catholic Church is currently under the tenure of her anti-Pope number six. The Church has become the Synagogue of Satan as a result. What will happen to the USA? becoming Babylon?

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