Final Polls Predict Clinton Victory

Most final polls of the 2016 federal election campaign Nov. 7 predicted a victory by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump.

As indicated by a compilation of polls, Democrats also are predicted to win a narrow advantage in the U.S. Senate. But polls suggest Democrats will fail to gain control of the U.S. House, which state legislatures heavily gerrymandered for a decade after the 2010 census.

The Justice Integrity Project, which is a non-partisan organization, has compiled poll results below:

• Princeton Election Consortium, Predictions as of November 6, Dr. Sam Wang, Nov. 7, 2016 (8:06 A.M. EST). Snapshot (194 state polls): Clinton 313, Trump 225 Electoral votes. Meta-margin: Clinton +2.6 percent. Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift, 99 percent. Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50.
• Real Clear Politics, Presidential Electoral Map Predictions (No Toss-ups), Staff report, Nov. 7, 2016. Clinton/Kaine: 272; Trump/Pence 266 Electoral Votes. (Assumes Trump wins in FL, IA, NC, NV, OH but not NH.)
• Huffington Post, Forecast for President, Natalie Jackson and Adam Hooper, Nov. 7, 2016. Clinton: 98.8 percent; Trump: 1.1 percent. In the event of a tie, the newly elected House of Representatives will elect the president, and the newly elected Senate will elect the vice president. Percent of simulations where each party gains control of Senate: Dem: 66 percent tie: 24 percent.
• 538.com, Who will win the presidency?  Nate Silver, Nov. 7, 2016. Hillary Clinton: 65.3 percent; Donald Trump: 34.6 percent.
• New York Times, Who Will Be President? Josh Katz, Nov. 7, 2016. Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance to win. The Democrats have a 55% chance of winning the Senate. The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 38-yard field goal.
• University of Virginia Center for Politics, Our Final 2016 Picks: Clinton 322, Trump 216 EVs; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, Nov. 7, 2016. Based on RealClearPolitics’ state-level polling data for 2004, 2008, and 2012, the candidate leading the most polls in a given state usually wins said state. In those three election cycles, there were just three cases where the candidate who led in a plurality of all polls taken from Sept. 1 to Election Day did not go on to win the state: Wisconsin in 2004, Indiana in 2008, and Florida in 2012.
• Washington Post, Final Predictions, Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, Clinton: 275 predicted; Trump 215 predicted FL, NC, NH tossup.

An appendix provides a sample of relevant recent news coverage and commentary.