Poll Shock: If the 2016 Election Were Held Today Donald Trump Would Win Again

This is the poll from ABC News and the Washington Post to commemorate Donald Trump’s 100 days. It starts off pretty ugly:

His challenges are considerable. Majorities say Trump lacks the judgment and the temperament it takes to serve effectively. Six in 10 doubt his honesty and trustworthiness, see him as out of touch and . Fifty-six percent say he hasn’t accomplished much in his first 100 days. And 55 percent say he doesn’t follow a consistent set of principles in setting policy (though fewer see this as a problem, 48 percent).

All told, 42 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president, while 53 percent disapprove. That compares to an average of 69-19 percent for past presidents at or near 100 days in office — for example, 69-26 percent for Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama.

Then there is this:

Among Americans who say they voted in the 2016 election, 46 percent say they voted for Hillary Clinton and 43 percent for Trump, very close to the 2-point margin in the actual popular vote results. However, while Trump would retain almost all of his support if the election were held again today (96 percent), fewer of Clinton’s supporters say they’d stick with her (85 percent), producing a 40-43 percent Clinton-Trump result in this hypothetical re-do among self-reported 2016 voters.

That’s not because former Clinton supporters would now back Trump; only 2 percent of them say they’d do so, similar to the 1 percent of Trump voters who say they’d switch to Clinton. Instead, they’re more apt to say they’d vote for a third-party candidate or wouldn’t vote.

In a cautionary note to her party, Clinton’s 6-point drop in a hypothetical mulligan election relates to views of whether the Democratic Party is in touch with peoples’ concerns. Although the sample sizes are small, those who say the party is out of touch are less likely to say they’d support Clinton again, compared with those who see it as in touch.

What this is saying is that notwithstanding Trump’s current polling is that if the 2016 election was held today, Trump would not only win, he’d win the popular vote.

This points to a host of difficulties for the Democrats as they try to capitalize on what they perceive as Trump’s weakness in an upcoming off-year election. People aren’t looking to anything related to Hillary as a solution whatever the problems may be. In fact, if there is any group of voters that is suffering from buyer’s remorse it is Hillary voters. And while about 60% “don’t think he understands the problems of people like them,” that makes him a populist rockstar by comparison to either party.

Yes, Trump may be out of touch but he’s more in touch than the GOP and leads the Democrats by 10 points.

There is another interesting factor that the poll shows

The placing family in government problem is, in my view, self correcting. If Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump turn out to be solid and moderating influences on President Trump I expect the opposition to them will go away the same way people came to accept RFK as JFK’s Attorney General. If they don’t bring perceived value I suspect they will find employment elsewhere. So long as they don’t become a reincarnation of the Rodham brothers monetizing the Clinton White House, this is probably a nothingburger in 2018. Cutting spending is always problematic. How that cuts for or against him will be seen in time. 53% of the poll respondents see Trump as a strong leader and a good communications organization can make the spending cuts dovetail into that positive narrative point.

What the poll shows is that Trump was right and there is a widespread dissatisfaction to globalism. It was pretty obvious as both Sanders and Trump had a lot of the same ideas about trade agreements. But if Trump stays the course, the lines of attack against Trump in 2018 are going to be narrowed a great deal by the fact that he has a supermajority of Americans who basically agree with him on fighting globalization.

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