Profile image
By RedState (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Now:
Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:
Total:

Do The Polls Project A 2018 Democrat Wave?

Monday, July 17, 2017 7:33
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

(Before It's News)

The coming midterm elections should be good for Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats in the House of Representatives. However to get control of the chamber they need more than a good year. They need a wave year.

So let’s look at the polls, and see whether a wave looks likely. Remember: the 2016 polls correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton got more votes than Donald Trump.

Let’s first look at the popular vote in the big wave years. In 2010, Republicans beat Democrats 52-45 (R+7) to gain 63 seats. In 2008, Democrats beat Republicans 53-43 (D+10) to gain 21 more seats over 2006. In 2006, Democrats won 52-44 (D+8) to gain 31 seats and control. In 1994, Republicans won 52-45 (R+7) to gain 54 seats and control.

In other years, the results vary. The R+1 2016 resulted in Nancy Pelosi’s side gaining 6 seats, while the D+1 2012 netted the Democrats 8 seats, but not control. The R+1 1998 gained Dick Gephardt 5 seats, but Republicans barely kept control.

So we see what the target for the Democrats is: They likely need to win the national popular vote by at least 7 points in order to take the House of Representatives. As it turns out, that’s exactly where the poll average sits: D+7. Therefore we expect the Democrats, as things stand, to have about a 50/50 shot at taking the House, and making Nancy Pelosi the speaker one more time.

The polls really are right on the line. Some results have the Democrats falling way short (D+2, D+3, D+2), some are borderline (D+6, D+6), and some are over the top (D+8, D+10). Much will depend on whether Republicans and Democrats are motivated to show up next year. Can Trump keep his base excited? Can Democrats find a message to bring their people out?

Next year could be big. Especially since the national election will have coattails into the state elections, which will help determine the post-Census redistricting, a process that greatly benefited Republicans last time around.

The post Do The Polls Project A 2018 Democrat Wave? appeared first on RedState.



Source: http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2017/07/17/polls-project-2018-democrat-wave/

Report abuse

Comments

Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories
 

Featured

 

Top Global

 

Top Alternative

 

Register

Newsletter

Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.