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Will Columbia Become a Gateway for More Than Just Cocaine?

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On the day before President Trump spoke at the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly, he held a working dinner at the Lotte New York Palace Hotel. The official attendees included Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos, Brazil President Michel Temer, President of Panama Juan Carlos Varela of Panama and Vice President of Argentina Gabriela Michetti.

The images taken at this working dinner present a large and open display for the clicking cameras in the room. The central topic focused on the situation in Venezuela and what action to take for resolution of the crisis. President Trump called upon the Latin American leaders to work together so democracy is restored in Venezuela quickly, but he did not repeat his earlier call for the use of a ‘military option’. 

The attending leaders of the four countries were among the 12 Latin American nations who signed a joint declaration in Lima last month, condemning the “breakdown of democratic order” in Venezuela and stating they would not recognize any action taken by its “illegitimate” new constituent assembly.

Image Above – President Donald Trump speaks during a dinner with Latin American leaders at the Palace Hotel during the United Nations General Assembly, Monday, Sept. 18, 2017, in New York, with from left, White House chief of staff John Kelly, Vice President Mike Pence, Trump, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley

Expected but unable to attend was Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, forced to cancel his trip to the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly. A vote of no-confidence resulted in his entire cabinet resigning, forcing President Kuczynski to remain in Peru and install a new cabinet. The new Prime Minister Mercedes Rosalba Aráoz Fernández was sworn in on 17 September 2017, adding this job to her current role of second Vice President.

Peru’s President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and new Prime Minister Mercedes Araoz gesture during her swearing-in ceremony at the government palace in Lima, Peru, Sept. 17, 2017

Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos is really our key supporter in the region, having been a long time partner with the United States and still working closely with us on both national and regional issues. Of particular importance is the current Venezuela problems because the two counties share a porous border of 1,375 miles. As the world’s largest producer of cocaine, Columbia continues to take actions in an effort to stop the coca production and negoiate peace with the guerrillas in the country.

Before the Monday meeting, President Juan Manuel Santos appeared on ‘Bloomberg Markets’, speaking to David Gura, where President Santos publicly repeats the stand of all countries in Latin America against military intervention by the United States in the Venezuela issue.

Here is a quick history lesson covering the position of Columbia and other countries sharing a border with them.

While their global power in the region has faded, almost two hundred years ago the Columbia of today was a massive territory called Gran Columbia which included Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama. (See colored areas on the map below.) Seventy years later, the territory had shrunk down to a smaller area. (see areas outlined in red on map below.) In 1821, Panama became a department of Columbia before finally gaining their independence in Novermber 1903.

Map showing the shrinking territory of Gran Colombia from 1824 (colored areas, including Venezuela and Ecuador) to 1890 (red line) and the Cundinamarca region. Panama seceded in 1903 from Colombia, and comprises the yellow area in the Central American isthmus.

The United States completed the fifty-two mile long Panama Canal in 1914, and continued to control the canal and the surrounding Panama Canal Zone until the 1977 Torrijos–Carter Treaties provided for handover of this area to Panama. Then in 1999, after a period of joint American–Panamanian control, the canal was taken over completely by the Panamanian government and is now managed and operated by the government-owned Panama Canal Authority.

Bet you are asking so what’s new? Ships pay to transit through the locks of the Panama Canal every day without problems. That region of the world has long produced drugs as their leading cash crop, and the United States has assisted with money and manpower the never ending efforts in the fight on drugs. Nothing has changed in decades, right?

Parts of Columbia have become safer, with military pressure weakening illegal armies such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, the largest of the left-wing groups. The arrest or killing of leaders with other drug-trafficking organizations has lessened the many armed conflicts over controlling drug territories. With the November 2016 ratified agreement between the Columbian government and FARC has brought about an end to that long running (fifty years) Colombian conflict, further increasing the safety of the country.

With the demobilization of the 7,000 FARC members, one-third of them women, these individuals will be returning to their towns and villages, seeking jobs and reuniting with family and friends. FARC also became a recognized political party in Columbia, with the former guerrillas granted a minimum of five seats in both the senate and congress of the country. They will participate starting with the 2018 legistative elections for election to those seats.

But as with any rebel guerrilla group, some individuals will not be comfortable without a weapon in their hand and military action in their life. These individuals will look to other countries for a battle needing their support. Also, one rebel group still remains operational in Columbia, the National Liberation Army (ELN), still waging a multi-sided war which is estimated to have killed 260,000 people.

This video discusses the recent threat from President Trump to turn on Columbia, and decertify them as a partner with the United States in the war on drugs. The surprise threat by President Trump occurred during the annual White House’s designation of nations deemed major drug producers or transit hubs.

In the issued statement, President Trump stated he had, “seriously considered” also decertifying Colombia because of the “extraordinary” increase of coca cultivation and cocaine production which reached record levels during the past year, but that he decided against taking that action because the Colombian armed forces are close law enforcement partners with the U.S. in this battle on drugs. The video discusses what the ramifications would be if the United States did decertify Columbia.

Do not forget that Columbia shares a border with Panama, and is a direct pathway into that country. A quick look at a current map will show what has been and still is the most valuable asset in the region. It is just a small step across the Columbian border into the isthmus of Panama, and the valuable Panama Canal, primary gateway between the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean via the Caribbean Sea. 

The politics and their relationship with the world in Panama are changing as seen by the 13 June 2017 announcement that Panama has established diplomatic ties with China while breaking relations with Taiwan. “The Panamanian government is today breaking its ‘diplomatic ties’ with Taiwan, and pledges to end all relations or official contact with Taiwan,” the statement said.

Moving beyond the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, with true refugees as well as daily individuals crossing the border into Columbia to obtain food and supplies before returning home, let’s take a closer look at the current government of Venezuela, which was the reported topic of conversation between President Trump and the Latin American leaders who attended that 18 September 2017 working dinner.

Nicolás Maduro Moros was Vice President of Venezuela at the time President Hugo Chavez died, and was elected in April 2013 as the new president, having run as the candidate of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela. Beginning in 2014, shortages and decreased living standards resulted in protests, growing into daily riots nationwide by 2016. By 2017, the situation in Venezuela had become an humanitarian crisis under the rule of President Moros.

Appointed by President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuelan born Tareck Zaidan El Aissami Maddah has been the Vice-President of Venezuela since 4 January 2017. El Aissami, his Father and a great-uncle are all known supporters of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and it has been alleged that El Aissami was Venezuela’s “liaison” with Hezbollah along with providing passports to “terrorist organizations” through the years in his other political roles.

Three weeks later, in a surprise move, President Maduro granted El Aissami powers that a Vice-President in Venezuela has never held before and power that rivals Maduro’s own powers. The presidential decree grants El Aissami economic decree powers over “everything from taxes to foreign currency allotments for state-owned companies” as well as “hiring practices to state-owned enterprises”. The move made El Aissami one of the most powerful men in Venezuela.

The takeaway here is that the Vice-President of Venezuela is currently well placed with worldwide connections and no liking for the United States to totally alter the politics in Venezuela, and strongly impact those of the surrounding countries. Add to that the current positions being taken by the United States and neighboring countries, none of which will help calm the Venezuela situation or stop Venezuela from aligning themselves with other world powers and retaliating against the United States sanctions.

13 September 2017 — Venezuela is telling oil traders that it will no longer receive or send payments in dollars, causing Oil traders who export Venezuelan crude or import oil products into the country to begine converting their invoices to euros. Any move to accept other foreign currencies is all talk at the moment. Stopping acceptance of the dollar is an isolating move by Venezuela, whose biggest trading partner is the United States, who accounts for about 95% of Venezuela’s hard currency earnings. 

19 May 2017 —  Russia will supply Venezuela with 60,000 metric tons of wheat per month starting from this year,” Maduro said. In exchange for the imports, five new companies will be established in Venezuela for the manufacture of Russian industrial vehicles. It should be noted that when Venezuela banned GMO crops, the country ceased to accept wheat from the United States.

The video below discusses the possible changes in Latin America which could lead to the Panama Canal, a key conduit for international maritime trade,  becoming a target for takeover in the region. The video was made before the 18 September 2017 working dinner, and before the final attendees were known but the information is interesting and should make one take a closer look at what is going on much closer to the United States southern border. 

In the current unpredictable world, the grab for power can happen in different and unexpected ways. Consider that whoever rules the Panama Canal controls all the world’s shipping, with the power to accept and deny the vessels seeking passage. Today the toll to travel the Panama Canel is a known amount, but what about tomorrow? Or if the vessels registered to a certain country were flatly denied passage at any price. It could be financially devastating to certain world players.

Extra notes about the Panama Canal…

The honor of paying the first toll received by the United States Government for a pleasure boat to transit the Panama Canal goes to Morgan Adams of Los Angeles, California. His boat Lasata passed through the Zone on 14 August 1914 during a 6,000-mile sea voyage from Jacksonville, Florida, to Los Angeles, California.

On 14 April 2010, the cruise ship Norwegian Pearl paid US$375,600 for passage through the Panama Canal. The average toll is around US$54,000.

On 24 August 2006, the Panamax tanker Erikoussa paid the highest fee of US$220,300 for priority passage through the Transit Slot Auction System This allows the tanker to bypass a 90-ship queue waiting for the end of maintenance work on the Gatun Locks, and avoid a seven-day delay. The normal fee for passage through the Panama Canal would have been just US$13,430.

American Richard Halliburton swam the Panama Canal in 1928, and paid  the lowest toll ever, 36 cents.

The route used before the construction of the Panama canal was to travel round the Cape Horn (located in the southernmost tip of South America), covering a distance of approximately 14,913 miles and subject to weather and the seasons. This travel would take approximately one month. But since the construction of the Panama Canal was completed, a ship has to travel only 6,214 miles, less than half the distance covered using the Cape Horn route. The use of the canal substantially saves time, making delivery quicker, and cuts down the amount of fuel required for the journey, another cost savings.

Global shipping routes as of 2012, and even then, the importance of the Panama Canal are clearly seen


A special salute to D.T. for the tip.

References

https://panampost.com/felipe-fernandez/2017/09/18/venezuela-and-narcotics-to-be-primary-topics-for-meeting-between-trump-and-santos-in-new-york/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-18/trump-and-santos-to-weigh-plans-to-pressure-venezuela-government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tareck_El_Aissami

Copy of peace agreement between Columbia and FARC
http://www.altocomisionadoparalapaz.gov.co/herramientas/Documents/summary-of-colombias-peace-agreement.pdf



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