Yemeni Forces Launch Ballistic Missiles at Riyadh

Reports are sketchy right now but multiple sources are reporting that Yemeni Houthi rebels have launched one, or maybe four ballistic missiles, reportedly aging Soviet SCUD-B missiles which the Yemenis call the Burkan 2H. The target was Riyadh airport but if you know anything at all about missiles you know the circular error probable for this dog is about 1,000 meters which means that you’d expect 50% of the missiles to land within a 1,000m radius of the aim point.

Saudi Patriot batteries engaged and the Saudis claim they intercepted all four. Video from the area seems to call this into question.

This appears to be four Patriots outbound:

#SaudiArabia intercepts missile fired from #Yemen over #Riyadh Saudi capital city. pic.twitter.com/WgTrJfb5yH

— World Defense (@WDefence) November 4, 2017

I compared the signature there with signatures of night Patriot intercepts during the Gulf War and they look similar:

What you’re seeing in the video is one battery firing. This fits if it was one missile. If there were four, then more units engaged because you wouldn’t fire four Patriots against four incoming missiles. Not good odds.

This is from Riyadh:

Yemen’s Air Force targets airport in #Riyadh with a ballistic missile. Saudis claim they intercepted it. @CNN
Footage via a friend pic.twitter.com/DDHcdloTiE

— Danyal Gilani (@DanyalGilani) November 4, 2017

The haze seems to me to be from an explosion. We know from our Gulf War experience that you can destroy a missile and the warhead can do a lot of damage when it drops on some random location.

Photos (via @NajranToday) reportedly showing pieces of a ballistic missile fired from #Yemen and intercepted over northern #Riyadh pic.twitter.com/L4p9CVgDGc

— Miriam Goldman Eps (@Miriam411) November 4, 2017

This obviously ups the ante in the ongoing war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. It will be interesting to see what the Saudis do next.

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