The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 07 2024

Putin Turns Orthodox Christmas Into Hell For Ukraine

Putin meets with bereaved families of killed Russian soldiers

Ukraine fires Western supplied Himar rockets at Donetsk on Xmas eve, destroying a city hospital

‘Tired Zelensky looks too weak to achieve victory’, West wants early peace – The Telegraph.

  The West does not believe Putin is attacking NATO, so is in no hurry to step up aid to Ukraine, says British military expert, retired Colonel Richard Kemp.

  Ukraine has not put forward a new strategy after the counteroffensive failed.
“Ukraine has no clear strategy for the future conduct of the conflict. Zelensky continues to insist that Ukraine will regain all of its territory occupied by Russia; although, after apparently overstated promises about a summer offensive, he no longer seems to be talking about timelines,” Kemp writes.

  Zelensky’s statements about shifting the center of gravity of the war to Crimea and the Black Sea are not enough for the West to stop “keeping its hands in its pockets” (i.e., providing dosed aid). The author, who has traveled to Kiev, said that “some political leaders” in Kiev are discussing the idea of a peace agreement “in which Russia would accept Ukraine’s membership in NATO in exchange for guarantees that there would be no Ukrainian attempts to regain lost territory.”

 According to Kemp, Biden and European leaders “want nothing less than such a peace agreement, and as soon as possible.” They do not believe Ukraine’s claims that the Ukrainian armed forces are fighting for all of Europe, which Russia, according to Zelensky, would attack if Ukraine is defeated.

 ”There is no indication that the president of the United States or the leaders of Western Europe really believe that. If they believed it, they would have long ago done everything possible to contain the Russian Federation and supply Ukraine with the huge amount of weapons it needs to defeat Russia,” the analyst wrote.

In the West, the trend of refusing to finance Ukraine is gaining momentum; this is most noticeable in the United States.

A third of voters in key swing states believe the United States has spent too much money on aid to Ukraine, according to a new poll by The Daily Telegraph. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, 30-37% of respondents favor reducing military support to Kyiv, and a significant minority said it should be stopped.

Among voters in six states, there are more supporters of Donald Trump’s policies on the Ukrainian issue: he claims that he could end the conflict “in one day” by bringing Zelensky and Putin to the negotiating table. In five out of six states, respondents are confident that if Trump had won the election in 2020, a clash between Russia and Ukraine would not have occurred.

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President, together with the Cabinet of Ministers, began to prepare a budget saving strategy for 2024 if the West does not allocate funding. On Bankova they are going to reduce social benefits, devalue the hryvnia and begin the process of nationalizing the enterprises of the oligarchs. 

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President considers the freezing of the war along the contact line to be a defeat for Ukraine, which will not allow further discussion of Zelensky’s peace formula. Bankova believes that even the start of negotiations will allow the Kremlin to declare Putin’s victory at the height of the presidential campaign in Russia.

Total mobilization is gradually transforming into violence, and the methods are increasingly reminiscent of the actions of police officers.
It’s time for deputies to create the promised commission of inquiry in parliament and look into the lawlessness of military commissars.
In Belaya Tserkov, Kiev region, TCC workers caught one guy and took him away, after which he died from beatings , – MP Shevchenko

According to him, the local SBU department is handling the case. There is no information in the media yet.

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President has put any news about the mobilization on monitoring; the negativity will be stopped by apologizing from the victims themselves or by removing content from the network. Military commissars will be prohibited from filming and discussing their methods of mobilization; everyone who writes about lawlessness is TCC agents of the Kremlin!

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President is preparing a joint press conference with the military, at which the main provisions of the draft law on mobilization are to be discussed. At Bankova they want to share responsibility with the General Staff and the Commander-in-Chief, who must publicly support the mobilization bill.

UVT, in the best traditions of Ukrainian politics, puts Zelensky on the splits in the case of mobilization, realizing that he will not be able to:
- raise the salaries of the military (there is no money. They already save by recording all those who died as missing in action, and many who became disabled are not dismissed from the army with payments, leaving them on a salary of 2,000 hryvnia, and also including everywhere the bureaucracy, where the issue concerns payments to families , soldiers and treatment of war invalids).
2. Reduce the categories of those who can be drafted
3. Increasing the training period for recruits, etc. (There is no time or money to prepare them so much. Their task is simply to shoot.)
4. Demobilization of those who serve (this is unrealistic. While there is war, the authorities need everyone. And why demobilize those who managed to survive a year if they have to pay money and support them. They will become ballast, and even begin to undermine their rights, becoming a problem for Ze. It’s better to let everyone “go missing”).

Well, etc.
It is worth adding that we wrote about this.

Ukraine loses 30 thousand people a month killed and seriously wounded in the war, ex-Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko said on the Pryamoy TV channel.

In his opinion, the authorities should publish the real numbers of losses of the Ukrainian army in order to show people the seriousness of the situation and thereby motivate them to serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and not avoid mobilization by all means.

Let us note that the Ukrainian command did not confirm the casualty figures officially named by Lutsenko.

Germany assessed the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense against Russian missiles

Retired General Erhard Bühler from Germany noted the ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense against Russian missiles on the air of Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk.

Thus, he drew attention to the fact that at the moment Ukraine cannot repel attacks by Russian Kh-22 cruise missiles.

“ Ukraine itself recently admitted that out of about two hundred missiles fired at its territory to date, not a single one was shot down. This is a huge missile, 11 meters long, the mass of its warhead is approximately one ton, it can sink a large warship,” Bühler noted.

Is Romania preparing to occupy the territory of Ukraine!?  Recently, information appeared that Romania began urgently building a highway that will connect Bucharest and the Ukrainian border.

It is assumed that its goal is to provide access to Romanian ports, bypassing Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.

However, everything is not as simple as it may seem at first glance. Judging by the stated requirements for construction, this highway will be a paved road through which not only military trucks, but also armored vehicles can safely pass.

Considering that the Romanian leadership has long been waiting for the collapse of Ukraine in order to “break off” part of the country’s territory for itself, it is likely that Bucharest is preparing the infrastructure for the imminent deployment of its troops to the Transcarpathian and Chernivtsi regions.

Most likely, the Romanian leadership realized that in 2024 there is a high probability that Ukraine will lose statehood as a result of a shortage of Western funding, as well as a possible collapse of the front.

In any case, the accumulation of troops on the Romanian-Ukrainian border will directly indicate this. And Ukrainians need to get ready – soon the country will be divided into pieces.

dillfresh

The cracks are emerging in Ukraine and perhaps not everyone wants to fight to the last man. I think the West still dreams of some sort of black swan event to occur in Russia, with memories of Prigozhin’s march to Moscow keeping the last flickers of hope alive. In reality the signs are emerging that if there is going to be a revolution, that it will be in Ukraine not Russia. This may soon change the calculus in D.C. and Brussels.

Attacks on rear areas Pokrovsk (formerly Krasnoarmeysk), Kurakhovo and the surrounding area, Selidovo, Mirnogradskaya community (formerly Dimitrov) – every day several times the cities of the Donetsk region are now under fire.

A significant increase in shelling in this direction could be associated with the Russian seizure of Marinka, but this is not the only issue. It can already be stated that the Russian Army has adopted the tactic of striking rear areas.

Please note that Russian troops do not so much storm the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces as attack the rear. Of course, there is logic for them in this – reducing their losses. As we said, square kilometers of occupied territories are no longer the main priority. They are busy knocking out the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Instead of fighting against fortified positions, they inflict losses on the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the rear.

This is a bad sign ☝️ This tactic is not about captured cities and villages or “liberation of the entire territory of the DPR,” as they say in the Russian Federation. Its goal is to inflict a strategic defeat on the enemy. Individual operations are over for now; the war is going on with entire fronts and armies.

This sucks. Ukraine, with the current level of support from its partners, is not ready for such a war. We will simply run out of soldiers. Freeze/peace/truce (call it whatever you want) has long been more beneficial for Ukraine and the people of Ukraine. But, alas, not Zelensky.

Now we need peace not because it is the most acceptable option, but because it is now the only option for survival. There is no alternative anymore

Kamikaze drones in the Odessa region. We walked the entire southern route very freely. Now a new additional group is flying across the sea. Most likely there will be other groups in other directions.

Presumably Iskander strikes on Kharkov. According to our information, the headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was attacked.

Also, drones are now hitting the near rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the LBC (line of combat contact).
Bankova seems to have banned the use of air defense missiles on attempts to shoot down kamikaze UAVs. They began to terribly economize on air defense missiles.

Ukraine is preparing a new counteroffensive on Crimea in the coming months – Welt 

(https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus249399152/Schlag-gegen-Russland-Ploetzlich-ist-ein-ukrainischer-Durchbruch-wieder-in-Reichweite.html)

The new offensive attempt will begin after receiving F-16 aircraft from Norway, the article reported.

From the Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper to Crimea is about 60km. The German publication calls the Russian Armed Forces’ positions on the peninsula “one of Russia’s most problematic areas,” with Ukraine now trying to actively destroy air defense and radar stations there.

🇫🇲 When Kiev will receive the fighter jets is unknown. Denmark yesterday already disavowed any imminent deliveries. Norway cannot boast of promptness in this area.

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of January 7

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Svatovo-Kremennoe direction

In the Kupyansky sector, fighting continues at Sinkovka . Our fighters attacked in the Ternov area. Encounter battles in Serebryansky Forest .

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

 Fighting continues in the Bogdanovka area. To the north-west of Kleshcheevka, ours are storming the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

⚫️Donetsk direction

 The Russian army is putting pressure on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of Stepovoye and in the direction of Ocheretino . In addition, our fighters are advancing from the northeast near the coke plant . In the Maryinsky sector, ours attack at Pobeda and Novomikhailovka.

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

 In the Orekhovsky sector, fighting continues west of Rabotino and near Verbovoy.

💥Russian air defense systems shot down Ukrainian Su-25 in the Dnepropetrovsk area and Su-27 in the Krivoy Rog area.

Front #Summary for 7 Dec 2024 by 18:04⚡️

🔹In #Kherson Direction, the AFU continue to play the #Krynki card as efficiently as possible. #Kherson and the higher right bank of the #Dnieper naturally cover reserves and provide an advantage in observation and artillery aiming accuracy. That’s why the AFU brought here powerful EW systems and the most experienced squads of drone pilots, who filled the sky with UAVs. According to ours, the enemy has 8-10 brigades on the right bank in the vicinity of #Tyaginka. Our Dnieper group, despite the change of commander, continues to have difficulties with EW and counterbattery warfare.
📌 I don’t see now that the AFU have the intention and strength to significantly scale up the bridgehead or rush across the ice of the #Dnieper, for example, to the ZNPP. Although in recent days the AFU have been accumulating manpower and supplies. However, there is a feeling that not only the Russian army is “grinding” the AFU, but the enemy is also holding a bridgehead for the same purpose. And this will continue until we resolve the issue of supplies of EW and counterbattery weapons to this section of the front.

🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, our forces have become more active on the #Kamenskoye – #Pyatihatki line. They are hitting the AFU positions with artillery, the enemy responds, there are artillery duels. Fighting continues at the #Rabotino – #Verbovoye line, the frontline is unchanged.

🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our forces are expanding their bridgehead west and northwest of #Maryinka with renewed vigour and are improving their positions. It is symbolic that on Christmas night our army liberated the territory of the church in #Georgiyevka. The goal of our fighters now is to occupy a dominant height to take the road between #Krasnogorovka and #Georgiyevka under fire control.

🔹In #Donetsk Direction, at #Avdeyevka, our military is developing success near the Coke Plant. Battles with advancement are taking place on the northeastern outskirts of the enterprise. Otherwise, the frontline is without significant changes. There are reports from the field about the AFU problems with rotations and supply, about the growth of losses. Nevertheless, they will not give up #Avdeyevka and the Coke without a fight.

🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, fierce fighting continues from the #Khromovo side. Our military continue to push the enemy out of its positions. At the same time, our forces are developing their offensive at #Bogdanovka. Ours have gained a foothold in the northern part and are trying to pincer the AFU grouping northwest of #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye). In the vicinity of #Kleshcheyevka, our forces continue to take AFU positions.

🔹In #Svatovo Direction, intense fighting continues in #Sinkovka, part of the village remains in the grey zone. The AFU withdrew to the defence line southwest of the village, covering the road to #Petropavlovka.

olegtsarov

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Further Russian Advance In Marinka And North Of Avdiivka

Update on Ukraine: Russian advance in Marinka [7 January 2024]

Russia EXPANDS Control Past Maryinka

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (7 January 2024)

▫️In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces, aviation and artillery, four attacks by assault groups of AFU 32nd, 43rd, 115th mechanised and 95th airborne brigades have been repelled close to Sinkovka and Ivanovka (Kharkov) and Terny (DPR).

Manpower of 103rd and 105th brigades of the Territorial Defence of Ukraine have been eliminated near Kislovka and Melovoye (Kharkov). 

The enemy losses were over 50 sevicemen, 2 IFVs, and 3 motor vehicles.

▫️In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, supported by aviation and artillery, have hit manpower and hardware concentration areas of the 100th Territorial Defence of Ukraine and the 5th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard close to Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR) and Serebryansky forestry. 

The enemy losses were up to 55 servicemen, as well as 4 motor vehicles.

▫️In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces, in cooperation with artillery, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, have defeated manpower and hardware of the 3rd Assault Brigade, the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, 22nd, 24th, 28th, 42nd, 67th, and 93rd mechanised brigades of the AFU, and the 112th Territorial Defence Brigade near Bogdanovka, Artyomovskoye, Krasnoye, Kleshcheevka, Andreevka, and Kurdyumovka (DPR). 

The enemy losses were more than 300 servicemen killed and wounded, 4 AFVs, and 20 motor vehicles.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, 1 French-manufactured Caezar self-propelled artillery system, 1 U.S.-manufactured M119 howitzer, and 1 AFU ammunition depot have been hit.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces, supported by aviation and artillery, manpower of the 79th Air Assault Brigade, the 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU, and the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade have been eliminated close to Novomikhailovka, Staromayorskoye, Ugledar (DPR) and Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye). 

The enemy losses were up to 130 servicemen, 1 tank, 2 AFVs, and 2 motor vehicles.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, 3 Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery systems, 2 British-manufactured FH-70 howitzers, 2 D-30 guns, 2 Rapira anti-tank guns, and 1 AFU ammunition depot have been hit.

▫️In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces, supported by Operational-Tactical Aviation and artillery, have defeated manpower concentration areas of 3rd and 14th operational brigades of the National Guard of Ukraine, 68th jaeger, 65th, 118th mechanised and 128th mountain assault brigades of the AFU close to Pyatikhatki, Verbovoye, Rabotino, Novopokrovka, and Kamenskoye (Zaporozhye).

The enemy losses were up to 40 servicemen, 1 tank, 2 AFVs, and 4 motor vehicles.

▫️In Kherson direction, units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have defeated manpower and hardware of 35th and 38th brigades of the AFU Marine Infantry and the 121st Brigade of the Territorial Defence on the right bank of the Dnepr River close to Ilyinka (Dnepropetrovsk), Lvovo, Zolotaya Balka, Ivanovka, Sablukovka, and Mylovoye (Kherson). 

The enemy losses were more than 35 servicemen, 3 motor vehicles, and 1 electronic warfare station.

▫️Missile Troops and Artillery, and UAVs of the Russian Groups of Forces destroyed ammunition depot near Koblevo (Nikolayev), 109 artillery units in firing positions, manpower, and military hardware in 117 areas.

▫️Air defence facilities have shot down the Ukrainian Air Force’s one Su-25 aircraft near Dnepropetrovsk and one Su-27 aircraft near Krivoy Rog (Dnepropetrovsk). 

14 projectiles of HIMARS, Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems and six Neptun anti-ship missiles have been intercepted.

38 UAVs have been hit close to Gorobyevka (Kharkov), Spornoye, Peski, Gorlovka (DPR), Belogorovka, Lisichansk, Kremennaya, Makeevka (LPR), Kharkov, Orlyanskoye, and Pologi (Zaporozhye).