Reform must come from within, not from without. You cannot legislate for virtue.
Cardinal Gibbons, Address, 1909
This behaviour, albeit unusual for any Economy, is not strange in rule-breaking EU, as they just borrowed money to pay creditors for money that their Economy should be making to honour their Greek Government Bonds.
This as Jamaica had long bee a bellwether of sorts for the rest of the world as it relates to the First Recession as noted by Economist Keith Collister in his article “It’s the Economy, stupid”, published Friday, July 15, 2011 By Keith Collister, The Jamaica Observer.
We began feeling its effects around the same time that the Bruce Golding-led JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) came to power in 2007AD. By 2009AD, the recession was in full swing, two (2) years after it began showing signs in the US of A.
This timeframe is NOT arbitrary…….typical Developed and Developing World Economies are like large ships or corks bobbing in the water. Captain (Government) may give a command (laws, policies) but it takes time for these policies via various bureaucracies to be communicated. By the time they are executed, the ship drifts another fifty (50) miles before she comes to a stop.
Americans began defaulting on their mortgages given to them despite being sub-prime borrowers in 2005.
China took blue and white collar jobs and the spending power vanished as millions lost their jobs and groaned under the weight of mounting debts.
Recession followed in 2008AD, preceded by a famine in
Africa.
They also know the vulnerability of the local Jamaican market to external shocks such as the price of Energy in the form of our Dependence on Fossil Fuels, which drives up the price of everything else.
Jamaica was affected back in 2008AD by the US Recession, despite Senator Audley Shaw’s, Minister of Finance insistence in 2009AD, that we went not, by an initial fall off in remittances as well as tourism arrivals, both by airplane (less significant) and via cruise ships (major significance!!). Most likely political grandstanding, which I suspect is the case in the
US, with politicians haggling for advantages come General Elections in 2012AD.
This as more cases of abuse of these items as people get them from contraband dealers, mostly Drug Dons who switched to theses items, as unlike Marijuana (Cannabis sativa) and cocaine, they are in higher demand. Even the police are in on it too as stated in the article “
Police want help in counterfeit cigarette case”, published June 19 2011,
The Jamaica Observer.
But as to the nascent recovery of the American Economy, surer sign is the decrease in the price of gold, which indicates that investors are pulling up posts invested in Gold and pumping these funds into areas of growth as well as reflecting increased economic confidence in the US Greenback!!!
Internal reforms, coupled with increased demand for quality US products abroad means that the US Economy is recovering based on demand for goods form its foreign partners in the EU and East Asia, largely unaffected by the recession and with growing economies that the Americans can make money from to pay back the Chinese loan of US$1 trillion.
The US Economy is on a path to defaulting however, as albeit recovering thanks to increased exports and thus increased hiring for both blue collar workers as well as white collar workers in industries for products that the Chinese cannot make with the required quality, they have to pay up the monies owed on their maturing US Treasury Bills. More all nighters required for congress post-Fourth of July holiday!!
More borrowing from the IMF, now with a newly appointed French head, effectively boring a hole in a boat to let out water when the boat is already sinking! This as those IMF loans have to be guaranteed from Developing World Economies themselves, and irony, as you would effectively be lending yourself money, hence the boat analogy!
That is to say, BOTH sides of the
Atlantic in their OWN massive Economic Recessions, making it a W shaped recovery, as opposed to a U shaped recovery and both are being accelerated by the spiraling price of Oil as the year of Peak Oil, 2015AD, approaches!!!
I call it the Long Night Andromeda Style, as whether or not the IMF bails them out, as the bail out only extends the Recession.
The austerity measures as per the Matalon Report used in
Jamaica is the World Economy only realistic hope. This being done by allowing the world to fall into a Second Recession. But this time, a controlled descent, with the entire process being monitored, would be my recommendation, allowing the World Economies to “heal themselves” as opposed to continued Government intervention through borrowing.
Rather, the Austerity Measures are being recommended in the form of spreading of Tax Net to capture uncollected taxes and implementation of cost cutting measures within the Economy. And again, in this regard, Jamaica is not only the Canary or Bellwether [my words], but also a case study on how a Developing Country should manager an Economic Meltdown as well as the effects of a Recession, Matalon Report Style.
The Greeks, the EU and the
USA must stomach what this entails: increased taxation and reduced Government spending and push to increased exports to its trading partners WITHOUT subsidies.
As the imminent Second Recession is now upon us……..
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