Blizard and solar CME forecasting

This failed work is presented as a cautionary tale but nevertheless there might be good parts.

Earlier oldbrew published an article on a theory by Nelson on forecasting the armada of radio propagation conditions. There were not many comments, possibly from the lack of solid further material.

From this paper, we can see why the technique fell at the hurdle. Nevertheless looking at what people were thinking and doing is important.

The scheme has been investigated by a Dr Blizard, U of Denver, report for NASA October 1969.

When I notice some well known names, consulted with L DeVries, J Eddy, C Dalton I took the paper as a serious attempt at validating Nelson.

Long Rang Solar Flare Prediction[1]

Abstract

Statistical studies of solar cycles show a high correlation between solar perturbations and proton events. It is hypothesized that the motion of the sun and planets about the center of mass of the solar system could trigger solar disturbances in unstable zones in the solar subphotosphere at active longitudes. The results of this study indicate that many of the major recorded proton events occurred near to major planet conjunctions.

— Scan of paper [1]

History didn’t pan out. Whether this is reality or a mistake, you dig it out.

1. Long Rang Solar Flare Prediction, Blizard, file here PDF 6MB scan of hardcopy

2. A vaguely connected compendium from October 1978, and already showing familiar diagrams

AGARD lecture series No 93, Recent Advances in Radio and Optical Propagation for Modern Communications, Navigation and Detection Systems, NATO. Marked unrestricted public release, 1993.
Local copy, file here, 271pages, 16MB PDF scan of hardcopy
Original “www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a054205.pdf”

Post by Tim