Marketing data with PyMC3
My friend Erik put up an example of conversion analysis with PyMC2 recently. I decided to reproduce this with PyMC3.
We want a good model with uncertainty estimates of various marketing channels.
I’ll restate his assumptions for the model and then show the gist.
Let’s make some assumptions about the model:
- The cost per transaction is an unknown with some prior (I just picked uniform)
- The expected number of transaction is the total budget divided by the (unknown) cost per transaction
- The actual observed number of transactions is a Poisson of the expected number of transactions
Here we can see that it is possible to get a good model of a conversion analysis using MCMC.
I think in the future I like Erik will use PyMC2 and PyMC3 more often for simple analysis like this. As I’ve repeatedly said this is a powerful method for generating a generative story that can be explained easily to stakeholders. We can also bring their ‘human intelligence’ into the model generation process. It may be possible that the head of marketing knows that the prior is not uniform – for example.
I will definitely use it for some further funnel analysis – in particular when the number of data points is very small and the model is very complex. I’m keen to hear other examples of PyMC3 in the wild.
Source: https://peadarcoyle.wordpress.com/2015/11/09/marketing-data-with-pymc3/
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).