Planet not overheating, says UK stats Professor
It may only be the conclusion of one expert, but it makes a change from the usual tidal wave of evidence-light negative assertions about the potential future of our Earth. He said it was ‘extremely difficult’ to find a correlation between carbon dioxide levels and temperature trends.
The global average temperature is likely to remain unchanged by the end of the century, contrary to predictions by climate scientists that it could rise by more than 4C, according to a leading statistician.
British winters will be slightly warmer but there will be no change in summer, Terence Mills, Professor of Applied Statistics at Loughborough University, said in a paper published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. He found that the average temperature had fluctuated over the past 160 years, with long periods of cooling after decades of warming.
Dr Mills said scientists who argued that global warming was an acute risk to the planet tended to focus on the period from 1975-98, when the temperature rose by about 0.5C. He used simple statistical methods, normally used to predict economic trends, to forecast future temperatures. He took into account all the fluctuations in the temperature since 1850 and found no evidence to support the increase predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN scientific body.
He found the average winter temperature in central England, which has the world’s longest temperature records going back to 1659, had increased by about 1C over 350 years. Based on that change, he forecast an additional increase of about 0.25C by 2100. He said the average temperature would continue to be “buffeted about by big shocks” caused by natural events, such as the El Niño weather phenomenon.
He said that his analysis, unlike computer models used by the IPCC to forecast climate change, did not include assumptions about the rate of warming caused by rising emissions. “It’s extremely difficult to isolate a relationship between temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions,” he said.
Source: Planet Is Not Overheating, Says UK Statistician | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/02/23/planet-not-overheating-says-uk-stats-professor/
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It is a well-known fact that one can´t easily correlate carbon dioxide emissions, or greenhouse gas emissions as a whole, to climate changes. Climate is influenced so multifactorially that it always was a simplification, a reductionist approach, to attribute the global warming of 1980s / 1990s to carbon dioxide and methane emissions alone. Scientists admit this themselves.
The reason why reduction of carbon dioxide emissions is stressed so much today, under the label of reducing climate change, is rather geopolitical than scientific. “Those above” probably just want citizens to save petrol, which – dont deceive yourselves beause of current low oil prices, readers – DOES go out during next decades if it is used up as greedily as in the decades before, in order to keep some for their military complexes and for the chemical industry. There may also be other mundane and monetary interests involved which we dont get told. Instead, they tell us a half-baked save-the-climate fairytale, as if we were kindergarten kids and not citizens with a right to vote.
I recommend to everyone to spend as little petrol as possible, but not for the reason of reducing carbon dioxide emission but because petrol is absolutely precious and we will keep needing it for chemical industry even in the years of 2100, 2200 and later. It is a shame and a pity that we already burned most of it in motors and heaters.