Sanders Vs. Clinton Vs. Obama Vs. Clinton: The 2016 primary in context [Greg Laden's Blog]

A while back I posted an item comparing the current, 2016, Democratic primary process with the 2008 primary that mainly involved Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. I posted the following graphic comparing the Real Clear Politics polling data summary over the course of the primary cycle. That was at a point in time when Bernie Sanders was gaining on Hillary Clinton and it started to look like he could catch up and surpass her, much as now President Obama did in 2008.

Now that the primary process has gone along a bit father, it is possible to make a more meaningful comparison between the races. In so doing, note that the schedule for the primaries was very different in 2008. The primary season stated at a different time and the order in which the states voted or caucuses was different.

Now, I’d like to compare the relationship between Obama and Clinton in 2008 vs. the relationship between Sanders and Clinton in 2016, but the timing of everything does not allow a calendar calibrated comparison. So, instead, I’m using cumulative delegates awarded over time as a way of lining up the data.

The graph at the top of the post shows the entire primary cycle in 2016, in lighter and thinner lines, showing how far apart the two candidates were the entire time, and where Barack Obama’s line (number of delegates) passed Hillary Clinton’s line, as well as a point later on where the lines almost recrossed again.

The thicker lines show only the first half of the primary season, because that is all that has happened so far, indicating the difference in delegate count between Bernie Sanders (red thick line) and Hillary Clinton (blue thick line).

The earlier graph comparing 2008 and 2016 would have given hope to the Sanders campaign that 2016 might be a repeat of 2016. The current perspective, using actual delegate counts, and much farther along in the process, does not. In 2008, Obama passed Clinton when only about 25% of the delegates had been assigned, though Clinton stayed close behind and almost caught up later. In 2016, once the first few contests were over, Clinton has stayed ahead of Sanders the entire time, with the gap widening.

As I’ve noted elsewhere, the gap will narrow over the remainder of the primary season, but unless voters start doing something really different, Sanders’ delegate count will not likely exceed Clinton’s delegate count.