Fossil fuels could be phased out in 10 years, expert claims

Humans have relied heavily on fossil fuels for centuries, but the global reliance on things like coal and petroleum could be phased out in just 10 years, according to research published in the March 2016 edition of the peer-reviewed journal Energy Research & Social Science.

Study author Professor Benjamin Sovacool, who serves as Director of the Sussex Energy Group at the University of Sussex in England, explained that a collaborative and interdisciplinary effort could make it possible for people to switch energy sources in a fraction of the time that previous changes required – provided we learn lessons from those past transitions.

In the paper, Sovacool wrote, Transitioning away from our current global energy system is of paramount importance. The speed at which a transition can take place – its timing, or temporal dynamics – is a critical element of consideration. This study therefore investigates the issue of time in global and national energy transitions by asking: What does the mainstream academic literature suggest about the time scale of energy transitions?”

The “mainstream” view of energy transitions is that of “long, protracted affairs” that often take “decades to centuries” to complete, he explained. However, in the study he presents “empirical evidence” suggesting that these shifts in energy source may not require anywhere near as much time as they did in the past, and that the next shift could take no more than a decade.

Being proactive could greatly speed up the process, says Sovacool

As Sovacool explained in a statement, the fact that moving from wood to coal power took at least 96 and as much as 160 years in Europe can seem disconcerting. Electricity only took between 47 and 69 years to enter mainstream use, however, and he believes that the scarcity of resources and the looming threat of climate change could accelerate the shift to green power sources.

Such a rapid transition is not without precedent, the professor explained. For instance, Ontario in 2003 began a shift away from goal that was completed in just 11 years, and in just three years, the country of Indonesia was able to transition away from kerosene stoves to LPG ones in two-thirds of its households. Likewise, the nuclear power program in France saw its share of the electricity supply market rise from just four percent to 40 percent in a 12 year span from 1970 to 1982.

“The mainstream view of energy transitions as long, protracted affairs, often taking decades or centuries to occur, is not always supported by the evidence,” Professor Sovacool explained. “Moving to a new, cleaner energy system would require significant shifts in technology, political regulations, tariffs and pricing regimes, and the behavior of users and adopters.”

“Left to evolve by itself – as it has largely been in the past – this can indeed take many decades,” he added. “A lot of stars have to align all at once. But we have learnt a sufficient amount from previous transitions that I believe future transformations can happen much more rapidly.”

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