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Tropical Storm Nicole [Greg Laden's Blog]

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 9:57
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The 14th named storm has just appeared in the Atlantic.

The average number of named storms in the Atlantic, based on a fairly long climatology, is about 10.1. An average of 5.9 become hurricanes.

So, this year are more than average named storms. But is it more than predicted?

On average, the expert forecasts suggested anywhere from 12 to 18 named storms. We are well past the midpoint of the 2016 season, and are just about to reach the midpoint of these forecasted ranged, and there is still plenty of time left for a few more storms. The largest number predicted, as the upper end of the range, was 18, with several forecasts suggesting 14, 15, 16, or 17. So, it looks like the forecasts are all going to come in light, and this will be a noticeably stronger than average yer.

Why am I talking about the season overall instead of Nicole? Because Nicole isn’t very interesting. Probably won’t even become a hurricane. Nicole will wander around ay out to sea for a while, and go away in a week or so, most likely.


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