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Electoral Vote, Popular Vote, Final Model Prediction, 2016 Clinton v Trump [Greg Laden's Blog]

Monday, November 7, 2016 9:57
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(Before It's News)

The 2016 Electoral Vote Prediction

I’m finished making predictions for the 2016 Presidential Election contest.

According to my model, Hillary Clinton will win with 310 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 228 electoral votes. The map is shown above.

Caveats and wrongosities:

  • My model puts Iowa barely in Clinton’s column. Polls say Iowa is for Trump.
  • My model puts New Hampshire barely in Clinton’s column. Polls say it is for Clinton, barely.
  • My model puts Ohio barely in Trump’s column, but the polls put it in Clinton’s column.
  • Polls and other data are ambiguous about Florida, my model is uncertain, but puts the state in Clinton’s column.
  • My model puts North Carolina squarely in Trump’s column, though many will disagree.
  • What to look for on election night.

    Look for a tight race in New Hampshire. If polls are available early, which way those polls are going may be an indicator of how things will go elsewhere, though the behavior of New Hampshire voters will not be reflected in most other states.

    But, New Hampshire voter behavior may indicate how Iowa turns out, may give a flavor of Ohio, and if the New Hampshire Vote is strongly trending towards Trump, really strongly (and unexpectedly), then buy more popcorn and watch other blue states that have low Hispanic numbers and are not deep south, such as Wisconsin and Michigan.

    In other words, New Hampshire could go either way, but won’t matter in and of itself. But if New Hampshire is unexpectedly strong, 3% or so, for Trump, then you are seeing a signal of a surprise Trump victory. Not likely to happen, but if it does, you heard it here first.

    screen-shot-2016-11-07-at-10-26-06-amEverything I just said about New Hampshire we can say about Maine’s second district.

    If North Carolina starts to look like it is actually going for Clinton, then you might expect some surprises elsewhere, such as Arizona or even Georgia.

    If Florida actually goes for Trump, by a a few percent or so, then you might want to worry about some of the Blue states such as Nevada, New Mexico or Colorado. A Trump squeaker in Florida is bad for Clinton, but she’ll still win. But an early strong Trump showing in Florida would be, like such a thing in New Hampshire, a warning that part of Clinton’s Blue Wall of Votes will fall later in the evening and we’ll all be moving to Canada by the end of the week. Not likely, but just make sure you know where your extra popcorn is, just in case.

    If all of the indicated uncertainty (in the map) goes for Trump, Clinton still wins, by five electoral votes.

    If all of the indicated uncertainty (in the map) goes for Clinton, Clinton wins with 332 electoral votes.

    The most possible path to Victory for Trump might be the just mentioned close race and then taking the next state down the line in Clinton territory. What is that state? According to my model, it is Pennsylvania. Not likely. According to polls, other states may be more vulnerable, but we’re talking about my model here.

    This model is different from what the polls predict. Current polling data puts Florida right on the line, or maybe even slightly towards Trump. Current polls, as noted, put Iowa in Trumpland, as well as Maine CD 2.

    The biggest unknowns, in my opinion, have to do with early voting. This is a new phenomenon that has not been going on long enough, using the same rules, etc., to use the information reliably. Also, FBI Director Comey’s shenanigans probably had an impact here. Democrats rely on an early voting strategy, and a big chunk of the early voting happens during the nine day period from the weekend prior to voting day backwards. Those are the exact days that Comey caused a change in the race, and likely, caused some of the Democratic strategy to work against the Democrats. The Democratic GOT-early-V strategy would have been bringing some people to the polls to vote AGAINST rather than FOR their own candidate during this time, possibly.

    It will be very disappointing to be an American on the day we realize, no matter who wins this race, that Comey is not going to be charged with violating the Hatch Act. Let us hope that does not happen.

    The Significance Of This Election

    I assume Secretary Clinton will be elected. Then, I assume she will be re-elected. So, the next presidential race with a truly uncertain outcome will be in eight years.

    Some people worry that this year, with the ascendancy of Trump, we see the beginning of a long term threat of fascism, increased racism, and widespread sexism. Maybe.

    But I see this as the last gasp of the sexist, racist, uneducated, white male. In eight years, a significant proportion of the older white males with little education and a propensity to suck on Rush Limbaugh’s tit will be dead. They will be replaced with something else.

    What will they be replaced with? That is up to us. Let us not mess this up.

    The Exact Popular Vote Predictions

    My model predict the popular vote outcome in terms of percentage for each of the two main candidates of those two main candidate’s votes. So, not the actual percentage for a full four person plus lizard people write in race. Below is a table showing these predictions by state. (Hawaii and Alaska are not expected to be accurate.)

    State Clinton Trump
    DC 86.0% 14.0%
    Hawaii 71.9% 28.1%
    Vermont 62.1% 37.9%
    New York 61.6% 38.4%
    Maryland 61.4% 38.6%
    California 61.2% 38.8%
    Rhode Island 60.3% 39.7%
    Massachusetts 58.5% 41.5%
    New Jersey 57.5% 42.5%
    Delaware 57.2% 42.8%
    Illinois 56.6% 43.4%
    Connecticut 56.2% 43.8%
    New Mexico 55.9% 44.1%
    Washington 55.5% 44.5%
    Maine 1 53.9% 46.1%
    Maine 2 53.9% 46.1%
    Oregon 53.9% 46.1%
    Nevada 53.4% 46.6%
    Michigan 52.5% 47.5%
    Minnesota 51.4% 48.6%
    Colorado 51.4% 48.6%
    Wisconsin 51.3% 48.7%
    Virginia 51.3% 48.7%
    Pennsylvania 50.8% 49.2%
    Florida 50.5% 49.5%
    Iowa 50.3% 49.7%
    New Hampshire 49.8% 50.2%
    Ohio 49.6% 50.4%
    North Carolina 48.8% 51.2%
    Georgia 47.1% 52.9%
    Arizona 46.7% 53.3%
    Mississippi 45.2% 54.8%
    South Carolina 45.1% 54.9%
    Alaska 44.6% 55.4%
    Texas 44.5% 55.5%
    Missouri 44.4% 55.6%
    Indiana 44.0% 56.0%
    Louisiana 42.7% 57.3%
    Montana 41.9% 58.1%
    South Dakota 40.7% 59.3%
    Tennessee 40.4% 59.6%
    Alabama 40.2% 59.8%
    North Dakota 39.8% 60.2%
    Kansas 39.7% 60.3%
    Nebraska 39.3% 60.7%
    Arkansas 38.8% 61.2%
    Kentucky 38.6% 61.4%
    West Virginia 36.2% 63.8%
    Oklahoma 36.0% 64.0%
    Idaho 34.6% 65.4%
    Wyoming 30.8% 69.2%
    Utah 28.2% 71.8%

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