Prior discovery [Stoat]
Timmy has been for a while my prime – and possibly only – example of a sane libertarian, climate-wise. In that he has frequently advanced economic arguments on the basis of accepting the IPCC WGI science. And, it has to be said, in the face of opposition from his commentariat, who are stupid, almost to a man. However, it has never been clear that he actually does believe it, and on various occasions he has been fairly Lomborgish: accept, nominally, but then downplay. Now, with This is the point at which we rise up and hang them all it finally becomes clear that he does believe the Daily Fail rather than science. This is over the latest Rose nonsense: data faked for the paper that insisted there was no pause and all that. Before we go on you want a few refs to the truth rather than the lies, so pick one or more of RC or ‘Whistleblower’ says protocol was breached but no data fraud E&E news, or Boiling Bates down or the speed of entropy by Eli or Expose: David Rose does not understand baselines by ATTP or David Rose’s alternative reality in the Daily Mail by VV.
This, in a sense, continues the theme begun in Scott Adams is a tosser: how do you find out where the truth lies? But I find there’s one major omission from that, which is to recognise your own biases. Or, put another way, that no-one discovers facts story by story or paper by paper in some objective idealised-science way. Instead, people update their view of reality layer by layer; they update their priors, to use new and fashionable language; or, as Brian Gardiner used to tell us then-bright-eyed-young-folk, though we were relucatant to believe it being young, everyone has pre-placed filters to sieve reality before it gets too close.
And so, when someone reports to you something that they’re read in the Fail, you learn nothing about what they report, but you do learn about their prior beliefs.
Refs
* WHY DELINGPOLE CAN’T READ by RS
* Anthony Watts Does a Steve Bannon by QS
* the Giant Weasel of Sikkim by RS
* Wikipedia bans Daily Mail as ‘unreliable’ source – see also direct
Source: http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2017/02/08/prior-discovery/
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