H7N9: The Next Pandemic Flu?

This guest post by Bam Bam  and entry in our non-fiction writing contest.

Introduction

Scientists in China have identified a novel strain of the influenza virus, H7N9, which a little more than two weeks ago jumped from birds to humans. In the past two weeks, the novel bird flu has infected 62 and killed 14. Two patients have recovered, a four-year-old boy and a seven-year-old girl. Most of the remaining patients are said to be in “severe” condition. [1] Research suggests the flu is highly virulent and mutating rapidly. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) is taking the new influenza strain very seriously. Chinese authorities released the new flu’s genetic sequence on April 1. On April 4, the CDC announced that it was beginning work on a vaccine.

This article is the first installment of a two part series. In this first installment, I provide background information on the novel influenza virus and explain why the CDC is responding with unprecedented speed. Let me be very clear about the gravity of this situation: The world is two genetic mutations away from pandemic flu. In the second part of this two-part series, I discuss practical steps you can implement to keep your family safe. These steps include preparing a basic flu kit, making elderberry tincture and elderberry syrup, getting supplies to create an isolation room, and focusing on proper hand washing techniques.

H7N9

On March 31, Chinese authorities announced the first confirmed case of human infection with novel bird flu, subtype H7N9. Chinese authorities had by then completed a genetic sequencing of the virus. (That’s how they were able to identify the subtype of the novel virus.) Chinese authorities reported this information to the World Health Organization (WHO) and released the new flu’s genetic sequence for scientists around the world to study. (This is an unprecedented openness for Chinese authorities, who were severely criticized after failing to report SARS in a timely manner.)

Scientists around the world have examined the novel flu’s genetic structure and have raised a number of red flags.

• 1.Unlike H5N1 that kills its host, H7N9 does not cause significant symptoms in birds. So, there aren’t birds falling from the sky to let folks know there’s a problem. [2]
• 2.H7N9 contains a gene known to make the virus resistant to antiviral medications such as Tamiflu. [3]
• 3.In the first three cases (the cases from which the virological samples were taken), the patients became ill very quickly. They progressed to severe pneumonia and upper respiratory distress very rapidly. Two of the three developed encephalopathy, which is an infection of the membrane surrounding the brain. This raises the concern that even if patients survive the bird flu, they may have brain damage. [4]
• 4.Unlike, say, Strep, you can’t walk into your doctor’s office and come out 20 minutes later with a confirmed diagnosis. There’s no flu test for H7N9. (The CDC is currently developing such a test.) [2]
• 5.Previous exposure to H7 flu subtypes offers no resistance to H7N9. There is no immunity in humans. [2]
• 6.The coding of the proteins shows new the flu spreads easily from birds to humans. [3]
• 7.The isolates from patients show a mutation that allows the virus to thrive in the cooler temperatures of the human upper respiratory system. This mutation is not present in avian samples. This shows the virus is mutating to its human host. [3]
• 8.The first asymptomatic H7N9 case was discovered in Beijing on Monday, suggesting that more people may be infected than are being reported. The boy was tested because he had contact with the 7-year-old girl from Beijing who was sickened by the virus. [5] This should be all over the news today and will likely be a game changer. How many people are infected?
• 9.The virus is mutating very quickly. [6]

This last point is very important. In a report released Sunday, scientists have confirmed that the virus mutates eight times faster than other influenza strains. According to this news report:

Chinese and international scientists have been busy studying the virus now that the entire genome has been sequenced. New research shows that H7N9 can change rapidly, potentially producing mutations that make it more infectious.

Scientists in Shenzhen found that a protein that binds H7N9 to its host’s cells could be mutating up to eight times faster than in a typical flu virus.

Dr. He Jiankui at South University of Science and Technology of China and colleagues found rapid mutation in hemagglutinin in one of the samples, with nine of 560 amino acids changed in a very short time.[7]

Another fact that is especially troublesome is that the geographic area impacted by the virus is expanding. (The first two cases were reported in Shanghai, in eastern China. On Saturday, a seven-year-old girl from Beijing (western China) tested positive for the virus. Two new cases have been reported in provinces in central China. For a timeline of infections, see [8]. Thus far there are no confirmed cases outside China; however, officials in neighboring countries are preparing for the virus to spread. (Monday morning update: There is a suspected case in Taiwan. Officials sent samples to the lab for confirmation.)

At this point, there is no evidence of sustained person-to-person transmission. In one case, however, a woman died from the virus and her husband died of the virus several days later. However, we don’t’ know if the man contracted the virus from his wife (person-to-person transmission) or if they were both exposed to the same pathogenic source. (One fact that seems to rule out sustained person-to-person transmission is that Chinese authorities have monitored over 1,000 close contact of victims, and none of them, with the exception of the married couple mentioned above and a possible father and two sons cluster, are symptomatic.) Again, the discovery of an asymptomatic boy in Beijing may be a game changer here.

A further concern is that Chinese authorities have yet to locate the epicenter of the virus. They have found infected birds at local markets. They have culled hundreds of thousands of birds at these markets. However, they haven’t located a poultry farm with infected poultry. This suggests that the carrier is not domestic poultry but wild birds. [9] Indeed, a top Chinese biology lab has found that H7N9 is the result of a reassortment of genes from wild birds from east Asia and chickens from east China. [10]

Last year scientists published a report on how to create a pandemic flu in a laboratory setting. [11] Scientists were surprised at how easy it was to create the “Franken-flu”–only five mutations were necessary. The new flu virus already has three of the five mutations. [12] And that’s scary given how rapidly H7N9 is mutating. This is what has scientist concerned. And this is why the CDC has moved with unprecedented speed to begin work on creating a vaccine.

Conclusion

There are three steps necessary for a flu virus to reach pandemic status: (1) high virulence, (2) lack of immunity, and (3) sustained person-to-person transmission. H7N9 has the first two and is two mutations away from the third. We are two mutations away from pandemic flu.

Post Script

Even if H7N9 does not mutate into a virus that is easily transmitted from person to person, it will still impact the rest of the world. It is very reasonable to think H7N9 will spread via the same migratory patterns in wild birds that brought H5N1 from Hong Kong to the rest of the world. [13]

References:

[1] http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/04/15/asia-pacific/h7n9-bird-flu-spreads-to-central-china/#.UWtN4RkpsSo

[2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehaiken/2013/04/12/new-bird-flu-danger-worse-than-believed-says-urgent-report/

[3] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-11/tamiflu-resistance-gene-in-h7n9-bird-flu-spurs-drug-tests.html

[4] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/report-published-on-3-who-died-from-h7n9-bird-flu.html

[5] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-15/symptom-free-bird-flu-case-suggests-wider-h7n9-spread.html

[6] http://www.asianscientist.com/in-the-lab/h7n9-bird-flu-strain-adapted-humans-2013/

[7] http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/15293-new-bird-flu-research-suggests-h7n9-easily-infects-humans/

[8] http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/15293-new-bird-flu-research-suggests-h7n9-easily-infects-humans/

[9] Timeline of cases: http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/files/h7n9-april-13-update.pdf

[10] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/apr1013china.html

[11] http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/jun/21/results-published-pandemic-h5n1-bird-flu

[12] http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23368-china-bird-flu-may-be-two-mutations-from-a-pandemic.html

[13] http://www.livescience.com/430-deadly-flu-reach-bird-migration-expert.html

M.D. Creekmore recommends “How to Survive the Coming Plagues” by Ragnar Benson.

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H7N9: The Next Pandemic Flu? is a post from: The Survivalist Blog.net

This article has been contributed by The Survivalist Blog.net. Visit TheSurvivalistBlog.net for alternative news, survival tips, commentary and preparedness info.