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Meeting Aliens will be Nothing Like Star Trek—Fact

Thursday, May 9, 2013 2:07

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The latest Star Trek movie, opening today, raises an eternal question: why are the Klingons (or Cylons or Daleks) always at roughly our technological level?

What use are Vulcan salutes when other life-forms see you as bacteria? Credit: Gage Skidmore

For any sense of drama, interplanetary protagonists have to be evenly matched. Usually, the aliens have technology that is sufficiently superior to humans to promise them victory – yet not infinitely superior, thus permitting nail-biting battle scenes and humanity’s eventual triumph against (almost) insurmountable odds.

But the technological progress of life on Earth – as deduced from palaeontology, archaeology and modern history – indicates this cliché makes no sense.

Should we meet aliens, they will almost certainly either be at the bacterial level, or so advanced that they would see us as bacteria. Either way, it would not be a very exciting encounter, at least by Hollywood standards.

The fossil and archaeological record emphasises the jerkiness of technological progress on Earth. Life has existed on earth for more than 3.5 billion (3500 million) years, but was at the microbial level for 85% of this time.

Tools were only invented in the past couple of million years, by a select few species (such as humans, chimps and Caledonian crows).

Technology – complex tools – is unique to humans and only appeared in the past few thousand years. But when technology finally appeared after aeons, innovation accelerated exponentially.

The accelerating growth of technology, which has doubled every 200 years since 1400. Credit: Michael Lee, SA Museum

Between 1400 and 1600, there were 12 revolutionary innovations, which exceeded the number of such innovations in the entirety of human existence (and thus Earth’s existence) up to that point.

Between 1600 and 1800, there were 21 such inventions; and between 1800 and 2000 there were 75.

Technology is growing exponentially, and since 1400 has doubled every 200 years (analogous to a computing phenomenon known as Moore’s law, applied across all technology).

The next double-century (2000-2200) therefore promises no fewer than 150 breakthrough innovations on par with the steam engine, antibiotics and the aeroplane. No wonder technophobes moan “stop the world, I want go get off”.

by Mike Le

Source: The Conversation

http://theconversation.edu.au/

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