Superflares could prevent manned missions to Mars

Upon returning to Earth after spending nearly a year on the International Space Station, NASA astronaut Scott Kelly unequivocally stated that a manned mission to Mars was “doable,” but new research suggests that the solar activity could be an unexpected obstacle to such a journey.

Writing in the June-July issue of the journal Acta Astronautica, Lawrence Townsend, a radiation physicist at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville, and his colleagues explained that if the sun were to produce a rare but possible “superflare,” such as one that occurred about 1,200 years ago, it would have a devastating impact on astronauts making the journey to the Red Planet.

That superflare, which the study authors said has recently been confirmed to have occurred on or around the year 775, would produce potentially lethal doses of radiation that would exceed safety limits at all elevations on Mars. Exposure would likely result in acute radiation syndrome effects and would drastically increase the probability of astronauts developing a lethal cancer.

“An event of this magnitude would likely be catastrophic if it were to occur during a transit in deep space,” Townsend explained to Space.com earlier this week. “On the surface of Mars, or the moon for that matter, substantial shielding would be needed, probably in a cave or lave tube if such were available, and preferably at a location deep within the Martian atmosphere.”

So what are the odds of such a catastrophic event taking place?

While Townsend noted that superflares are “infrequent,” he said, one similar to the one that took place in 775 was detected in October and November 2003. It produced massive X-ray levels that were “beyond anything observed before or since,” he said, but it only peripherally affected Earth, “similar to being near but not actually in the path of a Category 5 hurricane.”

The risk is serious enough to explore the importance of so-called “storm shelters” to help protect astronauts against radiation exposure, the researchers said. Furthermore, Townsend explained to Space.com that it would be wise to establish habitats “in a narrow canyon, or next to a large cliff with an overhang” on Mars. “Anything to reduce the exposed area through which particles could enter from deep space,” the UT-Knoxville physicist explained.

He and his colleagues believe that future studies could investigate to see how often these events occur, and to find out whether or not there are early warning signs that could help astronauts and scientists prepare for these superflares. Townsend told Space.com that he did not want to sound like “an alarmist, or to sidetrack future human explorations in deep space,” but that he hoped that his work would inspire a desire to “better understand these events, their ramifications for future spaceflight and what is needed to protect crews from them.”

Townsend’s team used the HZETRN radiation transport code, originally developed at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, as well as Computerized Anatomical Male and Female human geometry models to estimate exposure levels for several different aluminum shield areal densities such as those provided by spacesuits, landers or permanent habitats.

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Image credit: NASA

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