Blank Sun Goes Eerily Quiet, No Sunspots seen, X-ray Output flatlines / Solar Update
The sun’s X-ray output has flatlined in recent days and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of strong flares in the next 48 hours.
Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than seven years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase.
Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.
However, while a weak solar cycle does suggest strong solar storms will occur less often than during stronger and more active cycles, it does not rule them out entirely. In fact, the famous “superstorm” Carrington Event of 1859 occurred during a weak solar cycle.
In addition, there is some evidence that most large events such as strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead. Clearly even a weak solar cycle can produce a very strong storm.
Sources:
http://spaceweather.com/
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
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