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Israel is not Just Posturing or Playing Games ...

Sunday, August 26, 2012 19:15

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Israel Will Act: Countdowns in

Teheran and Jerusalem

[and Regional Stability]

Aug 26, ’12, Daniel Greenfield — The belief among the press and political establishments is that Netanyahu is an obstinate paranoid who is playing

games with them.

If Israel jets show up in Iranian airspace, it will most
likely happen while Obama is too busy accusing
Mitt Romney of secretly storing all his money in a
giant cave in the Rocky Mountains to do more than
dispatch a flunky to chew out Netanyahu over the phone.

The election is the perfect window for a strike on Iran’s nuclear program, because Team Obama will be too tied down on the Romney Front to do much damage to Israel.

During the Gulf War, regional stability demands that the United States protect Saudi Arabia and the Gulfies, while keeping Israel out of it. Since Iran’s Revolutionary Guard isn’t camped out in Kuwait City, protecting them is a matter of posture. That posture is there as a deterrent, a warning that Iran had better not interfere with our oil suppliers or there will be hellfire missiles to pay.

The posturing is hollow because everyone knows that Obama is not about to bomb Iran on behalf of Saudi Arabia and its colony in Bahrain. He is as likely to

do it for Israel as he is to move to South Carolina and join the National Rifle Association [NRA].

For Israel, violence is not a posture or a theory. It has few trading connections and no alliances in the region. Its foreign policy has always been about dissipating physical threats to its people, whether through diplomatic or military means. It does not follow this line because it is a saintly state, but because it is a state always on the edge. It has too little territory and too many enemies around it to follow any other path.

Surrounded by countries for whom destroying it is a matter of national pride and religious fervor, its only real deterrent is military. Winning several wars won it enough breathing room to try diplomatic solutions. And now the first and last of those diplomatic solutions has failed. It can still count on the military as a deterrent, but there is no deterrent against a nuclear attack carried out by terrorists under plausible deniability. The only remaining deterrent after a nuclear attack is killing as many of those responsible as possible before succumbing to radiation poisoning.

Washington D.C. did not get overrun by Communist
forces. Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Tibet and a few hundred million other people who did not have oceans to protect them from the reasonable commissars in Moscow and Beijing, did. And that is why Israel’s interests fundamentally diverge from those of the United States.

Israel is not playing a grand game from across the ocean; it is trying to survive in a region that is as hostile to it.

That is why, no matter what speeches politicians deliver, the actual interests of the United States and Israel are only loosely aligned:

The United States is trying to protect the tattered fabric of regional stability from Iran and Israel.
Israel is trying to protect itself from Iran.

The US needs Israel to promote regional stability by going back to the table and negotiating with the terrorist front groups backed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulfies.

Israel needs to protect itself while Obama is too busy
telling senior citizens that Paul Ryan will cook them
in a frying pan to pay attention to what it’s doing.

Everyone in the region understands the nature of the countdown. The rhetoric out of Iran now echoes the rhetoric out of Egypt in the 1960′s. That buildup eventually ended in a preemptive Israeli strike that destroyed Egypt’s air force.

But in Washington D.C., the countdown is not a real thing.

The received wisdom among the press and the political and diplomatic establishments is that Netanyahu is an obstinate paranoid man who is playing games with them. They don’t believe that Israel will do anything about Iran, because they wouldn’t do anything about Iran and they assume that Netanyahu is just like them, only more deceptive because he pretends that he will do something about Iran.

The problem is that Israel’s survival actually

is on the line. Iran isn’t playing a game.

That’s why Israel can’t afford to play a game either.

The West has illusions about the enemy; Israel has little room for illusions:

Israel will act when Washington is too busy fighting itself to focus on restraining it.
It will act because it is alone as few other countries on earth are.
It will act because it cannot afford to be Poland, Czechoslovakia or Tibet– sacrificed in the great game of nations.
It will act because it has no real choice but to act.
It will act because for it, this is not a set of talking points, a diplomatic program or a regional agenda, it is life or death.
It will act, because for all its flaws, its survival is on the line.

It is not a thing that Washington D.C or Brussels can take seriously. It is not even a thing that all Israelis take seriously anymore. But those who hear the clock ticking know what is coming. They know the hard choices that will come in the months ahead. And they will make those choices as they made them before, because they choose to survive.

Daniel Greenfield
Shillman Journalism Fellow
Freedom Center
sultanknish.blogspot.com
Excerpted: http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Z90IkdIhjO37D37M_baZ2G55iRO0HgFzZthIk7XWQ-2wpVmhTB-tNBgDmD65ntGMK2gxCS7AdhlEb0npjkxCuYn2rkCB8yJHH7rEVyTOPCiznV6_yiC2E30OsQJl9JIdbVXOC9s6LFVn13UtkmXo-KLCjwY9fHHFZiJC9yabSeO3kewFOGadqg==

>>^<<

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